The Road to Autonomous Applications
Adrian Bowles, PhD
Founder, STORM Insights, Inc.
Lead Analyst, AI, Aragon Research
info@storminsights.com
DECEMBER 14, 2017
• Overview and Opportunities
• Enabling Technologies
• Autonomous Application Categories
• A Matter of Trust
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
AGENDA
ROBOCOP IS COOL, BUT…ROOMBA IS REAL
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous: The ability to make one’s own decisions.
Automatic: A system that responds to environmental input with pre-programmed responses.
Semi-autonomous: A system capable of making [some] decisions based on
context, and relying on human intervention or override for others.
A single system may have multiple modes.
AUTONOMOUS VS AUTOMATIC
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
World
Model
Boyd’s Loop
John Boyd (1927-1997)
FORMALIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous Intelligent
AUTONOMY VS INTELLIGENCE
Abstract
Generalize
Learn
Understand
ReasonIndependent
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Listen
Look
Touch
Smell
Taste
Your System
Learn
Model
Reason
Understand
INTERACTING WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD
Autonomous
Systems
Robots
Semi-Autonomous
Robot/automaton/android
Machine that performs one or more
physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions
or determined by autonomous reasoning.
Autonomous
Systems
ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Enterprise
Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Semi-Autonomous
Automobiles
Info
Retrieval
Autonomous
Systems
Robot/automaton/android
Machine that performs one or more
physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions
or determined by autonomous reasoning.
ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Public Sector Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Semi-Autonomous
UAVs
Automobiles
Buses
Trucks
Multi-
peds
Info
Retrieval
Autonomous
Systems
Robot/automaton/android
Machine that performs one or more
physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions
or determined by autonomous reasoning.
ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Public Sector
Enterprise
Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Manufacturing
Semi-Autonomous
UAVs
Automobiles
Buses
Trucks
Inventory Mgmt
Multi-
peds
Info
Retrieval
CognitiveCommerce
Apps
Network
Monitoring
Autonomous
Systems
Robot/automaton/android
hine that performs one or more physical tasks determined
by preprogrammed instructions
or autonomous reasoning.
ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Low High
AutonomyAutomatic/
Reflexive
Autonomous
Independent Interdependent
Integration
World Model
ComprehensiveNone
CONTROL & COMPLEXITY
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
BigDog is a dynamically stable
quadruped robot created in 2005 by
Boston Dynamics with Foster-Miller, the
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the
Harvard University Concord Field
Station.[1] It was funded by DARPA, but
the project was shelved after the BigDog
was deemed too loud for combat.[2]
BigDog. (2016, August 19). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 19:15, September 7, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=BigDog&oldid=735286400
MQ-9 Reaper
Unmanned Areal Vehicle (UAV/Drone)
SOMETIMES, A LITTLE AUTONOMY GOES A LONG WAY.
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
WHEN DO WE NEED HUMANS IN THE LOOP?
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
SAE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
9/7/2016
homeai.info
LEVEL 4 IN 2021?
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Google Patents Emergency Vehicle
Detection for Autonomous Cars
9/6/2016
INTEROPERABILITY WITH THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IS CRITICAL
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous Systems Artificial General Intelligence
Machine
Learning
Cognitive ComputingThe Internet of Things
Understand
Reason
Learn
Domain-independent
problem solving
Connectivity
Control
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN CONTEXT
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Enabling Technologies
IoT……Sensors,
Intelligence at the Edge…
Vision Technologies…
LIDAR
Supervised Unsupervised
Deep
General
Reinforcement
Learning by example,
using training data. Strategies based
on performance
feedback.
Discovers patterns based
on experience with data.
Biologically-inspired ML approach.
Leverages simple processing units - analogous to neurosynaptic elements -
organized in layers that collaborate to solve complex problems.
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
MACHINE LEARNING FOR AUTONOMOUS APPLICATIONS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
CONTRASTING AI APPROACHES USED FOR INTELLIGENT AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Knowledge-Centric Data-Centric/
Deep Learning
Representation Learning
Use ML to discover the representation
Lots of Up-Front Effort
Developing the Algorithms
or Rules
Should have
Complete Transparency
Identify the Categories
Let the Data Drive the Process
Can Become a Black Box
ATTRIBUTES
APPROACH
Use ML to discover the mappingUse experts to create the
representation and mapping
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
HOW TO DELEGATE AUTONOMY
ALGORITHMS
&
RULES
DATA
AutoSys
Decision-making…
Does it plan?
Generative planning?
Use feedback?
Coordinate?
Can it:
move?
in the air?
on land?
on/under water?
see?
hear?
smell?
taste?
feel?
learn?
CLASSIFYING AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Segmentaton
Train
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
A MATTER OF TRUST
Verify
Validate
Delegate
Evaluate
TRUST
DecisionsPreparation
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights reserved.
PROGRESS?
Alex Coppel / Herald Sun/Getty Images
Fernando Alonso Walks Away from a 46G Impact
Will F1 become fully autonomous?
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
FROM INFORM/ADVISE TO AUTOMATE
DESIGN CONSTRAINTS - DECISIONS UNDER DURESS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
DESIGN DECISIONS/CONSTRAINTS
Independent vs Collaborative
Execution Constraints
Augment vs Automate
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
Small
Model
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
Small
Model
Feedback
Sensor
Sensor
Effector
Effector
COLLABORATIVE AUTONOMY - MULTIPLE SENSORS & EFFECTORS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
•A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction,
allow a human being to come to harm.
•A robot must obey orders given it by human beings
except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
•A robot must protect its own existence
as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
“Handbook of Robotics, 56th Edition, 2058AD”
in
Runaround, a 1942 short story
ISAAC ASIMOV - THREE LAWS OF ROBOTICS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
adrian@storminsights.com
Twitter @ajbowles
Skype ajbowles
If you would like to connect on LinkedIn, please
let me know that you that you registered for the
Smart Data webinar series.
KEEP IN TOUCH
2018 SmartData Webinar Dates & Topics
January 11 AI At The Edge:
Pushing Intelligence to Fog Computing Nodes
February 8 A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model:
Choosing the Right AI Technologies Based on
Application Requirements and User Attributes
March 8 Machine Learning Update:
An Overview of Technology Maturity
and Product Vendors

Smart Data Webinar: The Road to Autonomous Applications

  • 1.
    The Road toAutonomous Applications Adrian Bowles, PhD Founder, STORM Insights, Inc. Lead Analyst, AI, Aragon Research info@storminsights.com DECEMBER 14, 2017
  • 2.
    • Overview andOpportunities • Enabling Technologies • Autonomous Application Categories • A Matter of Trust Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. AGENDA
  • 3.
    ROBOCOP IS COOL,BUT…ROOMBA IS REAL Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 4.
    Autonomous: The abilityto make one’s own decisions. Automatic: A system that responds to environmental input with pre-programmed responses. Semi-autonomous: A system capable of making [some] decisions based on context, and relying on human intervention or override for others. A single system may have multiple modes. AUTONOMOUS VS AUTOMATIC Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 5.
    OrientAct Observe Decide World Model Boyd’s Loop John Boyd(1927-1997) FORMALIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 6.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Intelligent AUTONOMY VS INTELLIGENCE Abstract Generalize Learn Understand ReasonIndependent
  • 7.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Listen Look Touch Smell Taste Your System Learn Model Reason Understand INTERACTING WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD
  • 8.
    Autonomous Systems Robots Semi-Autonomous Robot/automaton/android Machine that performsone or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. Autonomous Systems ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9.
    Autonomous Systems Consumer Enterprise Robots Home CleaningEldercare Semi-Autonomous Automobiles Info Retrieval Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android Machine that performsone or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 10.
    Autonomous Systems Consumer Public Sector Robots Home CleaningEldercare Semi-Autonomous UAVs Automobiles Buses Trucks Multi- peds Info Retrieval Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android Machinethat performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 11.
    Autonomous Systems Consumer Public Sector Enterprise Robots Home CleaningEldercare Manufacturing Semi-Autonomous UAVs Automobiles Buses Trucks Inventory Mgmt Multi- peds Info Retrieval CognitiveCommerce Apps Network Monitoring Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android hinethat performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 12.
    Low High AutonomyAutomatic/ Reflexive Autonomous Independent Interdependent Integration WorldModel ComprehensiveNone CONTROL & COMPLEXITY Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 13.
    BigDog is adynamically stable quadruped robot created in 2005 by Boston Dynamics with Foster-Miller, the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the Harvard University Concord Field Station.[1] It was funded by DARPA, but the project was shelved after the BigDog was deemed too loud for combat.[2] BigDog. (2016, August 19). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 19:15, September 7, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=BigDog&oldid=735286400 MQ-9 Reaper Unmanned Areal Vehicle (UAV/Drone) SOMETIMES, A LITTLE AUTONOMY GOES A LONG WAY. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 14.
    WHEN DO WENEED HUMANS IN THE LOOP? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 15.
    SAE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLECLASSIFICATION Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 16.
    9/7/2016 homeai.info LEVEL 4 IN2021? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 17.
    Google Patents EmergencyVehicle Detection for Autonomous Cars 9/6/2016 INTEROPERABILITY WITH THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IS CRITICAL Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 18.
    Autonomous Systems ArtificialGeneral Intelligence Machine Learning Cognitive ComputingThe Internet of Things Understand Reason Learn Domain-independent problem solving Connectivity Control AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN CONTEXT Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Enabling Technologies IoT……Sensors, Intelligence at the Edge… Vision Technologies… LIDAR
  • 19.
    Supervised Unsupervised Deep General Reinforcement Learning byexample, using training data. Strategies based on performance feedback. Discovers patterns based on experience with data. Biologically-inspired ML approach. Leverages simple processing units - analogous to neurosynaptic elements - organized in layers that collaborate to solve complex problems. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. MACHINE LEARNING FOR AUTONOMOUS APPLICATIONS
  • 20.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. CONTRASTING AI APPROACHES USED FOR INTELLIGENT AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Knowledge-Centric Data-Centric/ Deep Learning Representation Learning Use ML to discover the representation Lots of Up-Front Effort Developing the Algorithms or Rules Should have Complete Transparency Identify the Categories Let the Data Drive the Process Can Become a Black Box ATTRIBUTES APPROACH Use ML to discover the mappingUse experts to create the representation and mapping
  • 21.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. HOW TO DELEGATE AUTONOMY ALGORITHMS & RULES DATA
  • 22.
    AutoSys Decision-making… Does it plan? Generativeplanning? Use feedback? Coordinate? Can it: move? in the air? on land? on/under water? see? hear? smell? taste? feel? learn? CLASSIFYING AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Segmentaton
  • 23.
    Train Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. A MATTER OF TRUST Verify Validate Delegate Evaluate TRUST DecisionsPreparation
  • 24.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights reserved. PROGRESS?
  • 25.
    Alex Coppel /Herald Sun/Getty Images Fernando Alonso Walks Away from a 46G Impact Will F1 become fully autonomous? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. FROM INFORM/ADVISE TO AUTOMATE
  • 26.
    DESIGN CONSTRAINTS -DECISIONS UNDER DURESS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 27.
    Copyright (c) 2017by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. DESIGN DECISIONS/CONSTRAINTS Independent vs Collaborative Execution Constraints Augment vs Automate
  • 28.
  • 29.
    •A robot maynot injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. •A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. •A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. “Handbook of Robotics, 56th Edition, 2058AD” in Runaround, a 1942 short story ISAAC ASIMOV - THREE LAWS OF ROBOTICS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 30.
    adrian@storminsights.com Twitter @ajbowles Skype ajbowles Ifyou would like to connect on LinkedIn, please let me know that you that you registered for the Smart Data webinar series. KEEP IN TOUCH 2018 SmartData Webinar Dates & Topics January 11 AI At The Edge: Pushing Intelligence to Fog Computing Nodes February 8 A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model: Choosing the Right AI Technologies Based on Application Requirements and User Attributes March 8 Machine Learning Update: An Overview of Technology Maturity and Product Vendors