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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
The document discusses the transformation of industrial processes through advancements in technology, advocating for sustainability and efficiency in a networked society. It highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by data proliferation and the Internet of Things, emphasizing ecological impacts alongside economic decision-making. The emphasis on new production methods, flexibility, and adaptability signals a shift towards a connected future that prioritizes resource reduction and global accessibility.
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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
- 1. DYNAMIC Clouds of People&Things Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
- 2. Outdated and outmoded Adying world being overtaken by new freedoms Ineffective Expensive Slow Inefficient Corporate Process
- 3. PERSONAL DEVICES & NETWORKING New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions Greater creativity Faster response
- 4. WearablE Tech to come Easy to predict but hard to fathom! 50% of users give up within 2 weeks Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone, Smart Jewellery, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ?? Recent Fails: Smart Watch ?? A technology from > 20 years ago…
- 5. NEW INDUSTRIAL MODELS Printingof flexible electronics and batteries Colour programable Integrated auto repair
- 6. New industrial processes 3,4D printing + programming of biological forms Electronic design No assembly required Networked distribution
- 7. No casting or machining > 300 superior parts are now printed Better performance using less raw material and energy with a higher recycling %
- 8. FRont line production Shippingdesigns and not parts
- 9. New industrial processes Bio- NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation Open Design Open Hardware Open Distribution
- 10. Logistic processes Expensive, inefficient,damaging Demands the economic tagging and tracking of things… ! materials processing production h a n d l i n g o w n e r s h i p repurpose, recycle We have to engineer huge reductions in material/energy waste
- 11. TECHNOLOGY NETWORKED SOCIETY Noaccident but not 100% clear either Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility New Technology Entries Competition Growing Global Market Threat Ecological Humanitarian Demands BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social Mobility BIG Data
- 12. SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES Demands connectedpeople & things New economic thinking demands more than $$$ decisions - we should at least include ecological and societal impact… …to stop producing more and more for the few and start providing sufficient for the many……
- 13. INTERNET ENERGY COST Estimated@ 3 - 5% of global capacity Raghavan and Ma 2011 Corporate Machines Personal Devices Networks Switches Support Routers Servers Admin Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
- 14. INTERNET OF THINGS ENERGY COST Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients, with configurations and operations for 7Bn people & >50Bn things online
- 15. A SCALEABLE SOLUTION IS REQUIRED Using sustainable less energy than today Must extend to all peoples and things across the entire surface of the planet as an essential par t of a green agenda that minimises global waste of energy and materials in order to satisfy all human demands and needs by transforming industrial economies and living…
- 16. EXPONENTIALs Confound people ! Moredata/information generated this year than in the previous 5000… ….and next year and the year after, and… Counterintuitive for decision makers, managers, politicians
- 17. Baby ~ 239splits Man ~ 244 splits EXPONENTIALs That build us !
- 18. WE DON’T GET scale ! > 100 New Domains Registered > 100 New LinkedIn Accounts > 200 New Twitter Accounts >15k Mobile App Downloads > 14k New Adverts posted > 700k Internet Searches > 1k NewVideos Posted > 1M FaceBook Updates > 7k Flkr Pic Uploads > 100k New Tweets > 200M eMails Sent > 400k Skype Calls ! > 20M Messages > 20k Smart Phones Shipped > 7k Tablets Shipped Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
- 19. NETWORK SCALE Approximations toreality ! Telegraph N Telephone N2 Internet 2N Clouds N1/2 - estimate based on multiple clouds ! No Infrastructure Nets N0.1 - a first guess !! Based upon the average amount of traffic generated by ’N’ similar nodes extended to include the aggregated energy consumption with each generation of technology including reducing wireless span
- 20. c a us a l i t y Beyond Serendipity ! It is impossible to define the o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g factors, but they are far more than chance and represent a global need to ensure: ! - Sustainability - Survivability - Stability - Security
- 21. FUTURE PROJECTIONS Extremely varied! Anaggregation of Cisco, Intel, Oracle Gartner McKinsey A B I , B I I , I D C GSMA +++ follows
- 22. 50 ! 40 ! 30 ! 20 ! 10 ! 2005 2010 20152020 2025 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 Year Human Population Things on Line Bn A modest (pessimistic) spread of projections With the kind support of Lew Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013 Aggregated PROJECTIONS Using over 10 referenced citations
- 23. CLOUDS PLURAL E vol v i n g s p e c i e s D e v i c e C l u s t e r D e s k Ta b l e Ro o m H o m e O f f i c e B u i l d i n g C a m p u s To w n C i t y Re g i o n C o u n t r y C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t B u s i n e s s D e f e n c e C h a r i t y P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e C l o s e d S e c r e t C l o s e d O p e n + + + + Tr a n s i t o r y M o b i l e F i x e d + + + + D y n a m i c S t a t i c D e c o y Re a l + + +
- 24. Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, connectionsand increasingly hidden and disguised/distributed data & storage depth Invisible Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clou d Public /Open Cloud Decoy Clo ud Storage Clo ud Back Up Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clo ud HIDDEN DEPTH SECURITY Dynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity Reduced determinism Distributed Storage Different locations Multiple providers Many devices/OS Distributed data Config varieties Dynamic Apps Short sessions Data half life Transitory++ ++++++ Clo ud
- 25. people and things Greaterfreedom and diversity Behaviours & habits evolving Substantial cost savings Obvious security risks Benefits understood BYOD new norm More mobility New freedoms Enhanced security options Need to share overrides all Social net-working a vital tool Amplified creativity and flexibility Accelerating transient employments Revitalising industry &economic growth ++++++
- 26. Things and things Meetingecological & people needs Old industry methods cannot do the job New technologies/techniques needed Product/component tracking vital Minimal energy cycles need Material waste necessary Maximal repurpose /reuse Extreme recovery/recycle Enhanced security options Sufficient overrides luxury Global not local application More global applicability Local creation & sourcing Vastly reduced logistics ++++++
- 27. Connected on Off line Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time People to people People to things Things to things Local storage Presentations Synchronising Security scans Development Production Packaging Assembly Design ++++++
- 28. Device to DEVICE Meetingsand file sharing Container to Ship Ultra-Secure DataTransport =The Pocket !
- 29. No wires no fuss Getting rid of the knitting The only wiring used is to deliver power ! Operates on and off line for entertainment and for work
- 30. Device to PRODUCT Monitoringthe in:out and effect
- 31. Device to DEVICE OffLine Medical Records
- 32.
- 33. Augmented Reality Viewing Camerasin the crowd covering every angle
- 34. Topping up atoms & bits Service Info, Maps, Local Data, Music, Movies, Games, Advertising +++
- 35. 3,4,5G nets cannot support thedemands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information vehicle to vehicle Low power, local, immediate
- 36. container to container Shipto shore Container to Ship Low power, long life, self organising Hostile environment, battery life, & capacity demands preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
- 37. container to container Truck to 3G Container toTruck Truck to truck static or on the move Truck Fill: UK ~17% EU ~ 20% US ~ 22% Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
- 38. MASSIVE to Minuscule Wirelessnets are now predominantly local 1915 2015 103 106 109 1012 103 1 10 –3 AverageTransmitterPower TotalofAllTransmitters T Kg g W
- 39. network implications It isimpossible to beat the Laws of Physics Maxwell’s Field Theory Shannon Information Theory Basic Geometry Range Equation
- 40. More wireless nodes Meansfar more optical fibre feeders FTTProperty FTTCampus FTTStreet FTTHome FTTOffice FTTRoom WiFi >> 3,4G PON >> BPON PON >> GPON
- 41. PERSPECTIVES Important changes BPON GPONinvented to save optical fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m, but now it costs <2c/m we can afford P2P fibre. It satisfies all the equations of cost reduced complexity, reliability and future proofing WiFi ~ 97% net traffic 3,4G ~ 3% net traffic P2P PON Cost/Benefit GPON, BPON Cost/Benefit Mobile nets are minor players when it comes to internet connectivity and capacity
- 42. THE FUTURE 10 - 30 years out Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop ! Hot Optical R&DTopics Wireless over optical fibre THz & GHz wave generation Optical free space transmission Network reliability & resilience Seamless handovers /transitions All optical switching, processing, coding Wireless - Optical -Wireless translation Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels
- 43. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a ss o c i a t e s