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Research Methodologies in Business, Society, Engineering and Science
Research methodologies presents a spectrum of systematic approaches spanning all disciplines and the need to investigate questions, gather evidence, and generate knowledge. Here we examine the various frameworks commonly employed and detail the initial design through to data collection and analysis, ensuring rigour and validity. Quantitative methodologies emphasise numerical data and statistical analysis to test hypotheses and identify patterns. Researchers often employ surveys, experiments, or structured observations to collect measurable data from large samples. The strength lies in generalisability and objectivity, allowing findings to be replicated and broadly applied. Common quantitative methods include experimental designs with control groups, correlational studies examining relationships and longitudinal changes over time. Qualitative methodologies prioritise deep understanding of human experiences, meanings, and social phenomena through non-numerical data. These embrace complexity and context, recognising that human behaviour cannot always be reduced to numbers. Researchers conduct in-depth interviews, focus groups, ethnographic observations, or content analysis to capture rich, detailed narratives. Methods like grounded theory build theoretical frameworks directly from data, while phenomenology explores lived experiences, and case studies provide intensive examination of specific instances or contexts. Mixed methods research strategically combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, leveraging the strengths of each to provide more comprehensive insights. Researchers might use surveys to identify broad patterns, then conduct interviews to understand underlying reasons, or vice versa. This integrative approach has gained prominence for addressing complex research questions demanding multiple perspectives. Specialised methodologies serve particular disciplines or questions. Experimental designs with randomisation and controls establish causality in sciences. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses synthesise existing research to identify consensus or gaps. Discourse analysis examines language patterns to understand power and meaning-making. Computational methods increasingly leverage big data and machine learning for pattern detection at unprecedented scales. Selecting appropriate methodology requires considering your research questions, theoretical framework, available resources, and ethical considerations. Researchers must also address validity, reliability, and ethical concerns such as confidentiality, and potential harm. In a previous lecture we described the Philosophy of Science which fully underpins this lecture/presentation - students might find this useful as supportive material: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/binus-april-2024-the-pholosophy-of-sciencepdf/267612119
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- 1. Research Methodology P r of P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E D S c w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
- 2. ReSearch A relentlesssearch for the truth! “The process is oft characterised as long periods of depression with short periods of elation” “A process of experimentation/analysis/the search for accumulating evidence and understandings - a prime undertaking that demands the highest ethical and professional standards; supported by high skill levels, imagination, creativity, tenacity, resourcefulness, and dedication” “This is not a process to be undertaken lightly. It is generally foundational - a point of criticality upon which all further endeavours hinge”
- 3. ReSearch “If it wasas easy as implied here the human race would have advanced 100 fold faster. As ever, the devil is in the detail, and the challenges are generally formidable; we live in a complex world ”
- 4. It is always messy! ReSearch Actuality Time Progress Itis never like this Or This Spurious results Wrong turns Dead ends Surprises Mistakes Errors +++ A failure is a learning opportunity/a result !
- 5. ReSearch There are endlessdiagrams and charts of this nature in the literature attempting to capture the entire research process. If only it were only that simple! “In a world of the ‘largely known’ such charts may apply, but in a non-linear world of many simultaneous interdependencies and unknowns; processes tend to emerge with fl exibility, adaptability, as essentially evolutionary”
- 6. Quantitative: Collecting andanalysing numerical data to identify patterns, test hypotheses, and make statistical inferences. This includes experimental designs and surveys Qualitative: Focuses on understanding experiences, meanings, and social phenomena through in-depth interviews, focus groups, participant observation, and ethnographic studies Mixed: Combine quantitative and qualitative approaches, allowing the leverage of each Experimental: involves manipulating variables under controlled conditions to establish cause-and-e ff ect relationships. This includes randomised controlled trials, laboratory and fi eld work Observational: Asses subjects in their natural environments without intervention. This encompasses naturalistic observation, case studies, and longitudinal studies that track changes over time Descriptive: Systematically characterises populations or phenomena through methods like cross- sectional surveys, correlational studies, and descriptive case studies Exploratory: When little is known about a topic, often employing fl exible pilot studies, literature reviews, and preliminary interviews to generate hypotheses for future research. Action: Practitioners studying their own practices for line of improvement, commonly used in education and organisational settings where researchers actively participate in implementing changes Research MethodS Categorised into major approaches, with distinct characteristics and applications
- 7. None of theseshare exactly the same procedures, levels of complexity, risk, analytics, implications, and application - we have to be prepared to adapt… ReSearch has A r i c h s p e c t r u m Perspective 1
- 8. ReSearch has A ri c h s p e c t r u m Perspective 2 None of these share exactly the same procedures, levels of complexity, risk, analytics, implications, and application - we have to be prepared to adapt…
- 9. ReSearch has A ri c h s p e c t r u m Perspective 3 None of these share exactly the same procedures, levels of complexity, risk, analytics, implications, and application - we have to be prepared to adapt…
- 10. Many Category Permutations By Types Successfuloutcomes depend on a common set of parameters for all cases, including: -Clearly stated objectives -Good initial research design -Well de fi ned methodologies -Approved/recognised practices -Precision of agreed measures -Data recording accuracy & checks -Appropriate data analysis & checks -Veri fi cation and validation checks -Clarity/accuracy of reporting A comprehensive and detailed list follows, one slide on
- 11. R e Se a r c h E x e m p l a r This is way beyond mission critical - mistakes and errors in this domain could see the loss of life/lives! There are many actual cases where fatalities have been the outcome of procedural and research errors. It is an essential responsibility that we check, cross check, and audit every step of the way!
- 12. B l in d Trials Single, Double,Triple - blind trials are used to minimise bias. In a Single-blind trial participants are unaware of the experiment details - in a Double, researchers are also excluded, and in a Triple the analysts are excluded too!
- 13. B l in d Trials Single, Double,Triple - blind trials are used to minimise bias. In a Single-blind trial participants are unaware of the experiment details - in a Double, researchers are also excluded, and in a Triple the analysts are excluded too! All forms of research are prone to human bias’ - both conscious and unconscious. Blinding is often a necessary strategy in order to reveal the truth free of bias distortions. So far there is no evidence to suggest that AI researchers need the same measures of isolation ?? Many AI systems already exhibit human induced bias of one fl avour or another. This has shown up in courts of justice, recruitment and education. AI bias has already shown up in the arts, and it may well enter this sphere at some time in the future especially if humans are also in the loop. Watch this space!
- 14. B l in d Trials Single, Double,Triple - blind trials are used to minimise bias. In a Single-blind trial participants are unaware of the experiment details - in a Double, researchers are also excluded, and in a Triple the analysts are excluded too! Medical/pharmaceutical R&D rely on double-blind trials, especially for drug testing/clinical trials Psychology/behavioural research uses single & double-blind when studying interventions, therapies, behavioural treatments, where complete blinding may be challenging Market research/consumer testing employ ‘blinding’ when testing products, advertising, or consumer preferences to prevent researcher expectations from in fl uencing results Educational research uses blinding when evaluating teaching methods, interventions, or technologies Agricultural/food science use blinding when testing fertilisers, pesticides, and food products Security organisations use blinding to prevent data leakage/cross-contamination of investigations
- 15. Research MethodS Anassessment of the Pros and Cons (1) Quantitative: Pros=Measurable results that can be statistically analysed & generalised to larger populations. Hypothesis testing, replication, and comparison across studies. E ffi cient for collecting data from large sets. Cons=May oversimplify complex phenomena by reducing them to numbers. Limited ability to capture context, meaning, or unexpected fi ndings. Can miss important nuances in human behaviour/experiences. Qualitative:Pros=Captures rich, detailed insights into human experiences and social processes. Flexibility allows for unexpected discoveries. Excellent for understanding context, meaning, & complex relationships. Cons=Results are subjective and di ffi cult to generalise. Time-intensive data collection & analysis. Potential for researcher bias to in fl uence fi ndings. Smaller sample sizes limit broader applicability. Mixed: Pros=Combines strengths of both approaches for comprehensive understanding. Can validate fi ndings across di ff erent types of data. Provides both breadth and depth of insight. Cons=Complex and resource-intensive to design and implement. Requires expertise in multiple methods. Can be challenging to integrate di ff erent types of data meaningfully. Experimental: Pros=Strongest method for establishing causation. High internal validity through controlled conditions. Results can inform evidence-based practice and policy decisions. Cons=Arti fi cial laboratory settings may lack real-world applicability. Ethical constraints limit what can be studied. Expensive and time-consuming to conduct properly.
- 16. Research MethodS Anassessment of the Pros and Cons (2) Observational: Pros=Studies behaviour in natural settings for high ecological validity. Non-intrusive approach doesn't in fl uence the subject. Can reveal patterns not apparent in controlled settings. Cons=Cannot establish causation, only correlation. Potential for observer bias. Limited control over confounding variables that might in fl uence results. Descriptive:Pros=Provides systematic documentation of phenomena as they naturally occur. Relatively straightforward to conduct and analyse. Useful baseline for future research. Cons=Cannot explain why phenomena occur or establish relationships between variables. Limited predictive power for future outcomes. Exploratory: Pros=Ideal for new or understudied topics. Flexible design allows adaptation during the research process. Can generate valuable hypotheses for future studies. Cons=Findings are tentative and require further validation. Limited generalisability due to small samples or preliminary nature. May lack methodological rigour. Action: Pros=Directly addresses practical problems while generating knowledge. Empowers practitioners to improve their own practice. Creates immediate, applicable solutions. Cons=Limited generalisability beyond the speci fi c context studied. Potential con fl icts between research rigour and practical needs. Researcher objectivity compromised by active involvement.
- 17. Research Fails Poor Design& Planning: Rushing into data collection without clearly de fi ning hypotheses, key questions, or methodology, leads to unfocused studies that don't answer what you set out to investigate Sampling Bias: This includes selecting non-representative samples, having sample sizes that are too small, or failing to account for selection bias in who participates versus who doesn't Con fi rmation Bias: Sees researchers unconsciously, or consciously seeking information that supports their preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence Inadequate Source Evaluation: Relying on outdated information, biased sources, or failing to verify the credibility and methodology of cited studies weakens any foundation Data Errors: Includes poorly designed surveys with leading questions, inconsistent interview techniques, or measurement tools that aren't validated for your speci fi c context Statistical Ignorance: lead to inappropriate analysis methods, misinterpretation of correlation as causation, or drawing conclusions that go beyond what the data actually supports Documentation: Poor record-keeping, data sources, or analysis, makes veri fi cation di ffi cult/impossible, and potentially renders the work valueless at worst, and confusing at best Ethical Oversights: can invalidate entire studies, whether it's failing to obtain proper consent, violating participant privacy, patent infringements, or inadequately addressing con fl icts of interest Here we list a few of the more common mistakes that undermine the quality and reliability of any fi ndings:
- 18. Research Fails Calibration: Whenworking on hardware experiments it is essential that all elements work reliably within their stated tolerance range otherwise the concatenation of erroneous readings can be signi fi cant Temperature: Hardware often demands temperature control, vibrational, and EM fi eld isolation to maintain their accuracy. If this is not maintained, then error can creep in! Golden Brick: Some form of ‘measurement standard’ is one very easy way of con fi rming that everything is working correctly - in electronics and mechanics this is generally easy to implement. Diverse/Competing Teams: Any form of ‘monotonic thinking’ can lead to research drifting o ff the main seam on the basis of mutual agreements based on a lack of experience/knowledge - here diversity wins Transcription Errors: Automated aspects of experiments can see erroneous results slip through due to the hidden layers of transcription, transfer, and analysis. Statistical Models: It is so very easy to make an error with constructs developed to early in the program before the true stable state has emerged. Publication Commercial Pressure: Going to press based on inadequate, uncertain, uncorroborated, or erroneous results now seems to be more common because of th need to trust get results. Academic scoring and commercial market demand seem to be at the core! Here we list a few of the more common mistakes that undermine the quality and reliability of any fi ndings:
- 19. A TRUTH Crisis IS T H E N O R M ? Global Warming Climate Change Gender Identity History Rewrite Politics/Society Free Energy Immigration Marketing Wokeism Science ++++
- 20. WORST Fails People withstrong beliefs: On a mission protesting/demanding some cause, action or other, based on conspiracy theories and ‘Mary on X’. Those who see science as some perverse form of state/commercial tool for people manipulation. Those who decry science in all its forms and disbelieve all factual evidence whilst at the same time using technology to spread their doctrine and preach mayhem! Anti : Vaxers Nuclear Politics Pollution Wind Farms Globalisation Climate Change Global Warming +++++ Form a hypothesis and seek/select supporting evidence Create false facts and fi gures in support of their case Obscurate facts, fi gures, data & make unveri fi able claims
- 21. Credence A fact isinformation minus emotion An opinion is information plus experience Ignorance is an opinion lacking information Stupidity is an opinion that purposely ignores facts Opinions do not change facts But facts should change opinions! Lives built on lies to the point where lies are true Stupidity on an epic scale with millions of followers !
- 22. People always F ea r T h e N e w “I do not fear the rise of AI, or any machine, but I do fear the rise of human stupidity and mass ignorance” The Hollywood A ff ect: The Terminator movie is not a documentary! Technology is inherently inert: Only when humans in fl uence tech does it become an instrument of evil !
- 23. Distort The TRUTH CI V I L I S AT I O N D I E S The USA is being systematically destroyed As was the USSR, Germany and Italy +++ The concatenation of truths rapidly creates successes and positive outcomes The concatenation of lies creates failures and negative outcomes far faster “Truth travels slowly and is easy to distort and disparage” “Lies travel at high speed and are hard to stop and e ff ectively challenge” “Lies are generally far easier to digest and more attractive than the truth ”
- 24. Perspectives ON T ru t h / R e a l i t y
- 25. cor rob orate d ASSURANCE Basis The scienti fi c methodology remains the singular approach that has powered human advancement and accelerated our knowledge base continuously across all fi elds of endeavour for well over 400 years Printing Press
- 26. cor rob orate d ASSURANCE Basis The scienti fi c methodology remains the singular approach that has powered human advancement and accelerated our knowledge base continuously across all fi elds of endeavour for well over 400 years The Reformation Age of Enlightenment Industrial Revolution Education for ‘All’ Automation starts with the production of nails for The Royal Navy “The gradual emergence and sharing of verifiable/corroborated facts” “The acceptance and widespread application of established wisdoms” Printing Press
- 27. Dispersed individuals andgroups: - unable t o communicate & share a t almost any distance - secret d i s c o v e r i e s f o r c o n t r o l / f i n a n c i a l / p e r s o n a l g a i n - little or no corroboration of results & no mind melding “A very l imi ted scale of success give n the ir population” P r e - r e f o r m at i o n I s o l a t e d a n d u s i n g p o o r p r a c t i c e s
- 28. Virtually no distribution: -hand written copies only - fires, wars and sacking of libraries - no corroboration/checking of content - mostly locked away and unavailable - The printing press changes all of this D O C U M E N T s E x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d l i t e r a c y Very few ancient texts survived and what could be recovered was often recorded in obscure latin
- 29. Printing Press A recording& sharing revolution Johannus Guttenberg 1440 William Caxton 1450 Invented in China ~1040AD
- 30. Printing Press A recording& sharing revolution Johannus Guttenberg 1440 William Caxton 1450 Books remained expensive & hard to sell at first but soon went from the limited reach of the church & royalty down to the rich of society A transition from Vellum to Parchment to Paper reduced costs as did other advances T h e b i g g e s t i n i t i a l i m p a c t w a s a p r e c u r s o r t o newspapers - news sheets: London had >60 All this saw the rapid spread o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , ideas and new facts Invented in China ~1040AD
- 31. Printing Press A recording& sharing revolution Johannus Guttenberg 1440 William Caxton 1450 Books remained expensive & hard to sell at first but soon went from the limited reach of the church & royalty down to the rich of society A transition from Vellum to Parchment to Paper reduced costs as did other advances T h e b i g g e s t i n i t i a l i m p a c t w a s a p r e c u r s o r t o newspapers - news sheets: London had >60 All this saw the rapid spread o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , ideas and new facts This grew to become a primary d e f e n c e t o o l / n e m e s i s f o r secular & religious repression of the truth across Europe by c o n n e c t i n g a n d e m p o w e r i n g scientific communities. Invented in China ~1040AD
- 32. Discipline Science is veryhard: A continual and uncompromising quest for the truth Entirely evidence based and subject to relentless challenge Continual testing, skeptical peer review, discussion, debate, re fi nement No one person or group - no idea or concept, model or fact, is sacrosanct Position, title, reputation, in fl uence, wealth are ‘nothing’ in this endeavour Everyone and anyone can be challenged, proven wrong, and be overtaken John Locke 1632 -1704 A Giant !
- 33. SU M OFGe nerati ons Science is carefully built a layer at a time 1643 - 1727
- 34. Mission Critical House ofcards Scienti fi c Models & Facts: “Continually tested and re fi ned as one-layer of truths supports all above it - exactly as a house-of-cards” Crisis in quantum mechanics with coherence and entanglement threatens to wipe String Theory o ff the map Today we have a crisis in cosmology - disagreements between models, observations and measurements - including gravity, and a failure to realise a GUT!
- 35. Building (and continuallyverifying) the best possible model(s) of our universe using the best leading edge tech and methodologies at any given time Scientific Method Unique accuracy/clarity of vision
- 36. Building (and continuallyverifying) the best possible model(s) of our universe using the best leading edge tech and methodologies at any given time WE ARE SEEKING A DYNAMIC AND OFT STOCHASTIC TRuTH THIS CONTRASts with all belief systems where truth is static Scientific Method Unique accuracy/clarity of vision
- 37. Fundamental Success If wejudge the success of science by the ‘well- being’ of the human populous, which has seen a rapid acceleration starting around 1600 that continued exponentially until recently when self- limiting has come into play. “We are the only species that fully understands that ‘we’ now (potentially) constitute the biggest threat to all life on this planet”
- 38. If we judgethe failure of ignorance, superstition, and belief systems, by the ‘well- being’ of the human populous, we see plagues, famines, pestilence, wars, collapsing civilisations, very short lifespans, little/no sustained positive change. In the ancient world science ‘stuttered into being’ many times to be overpowered by the dominance of ignorance, and beliefs. “As a species we understood virtually nothing that would see the longevity of population growth” ! Fundamental Fail
- 39. Dynamic by wayof our technologies of observation No absolutes - there are always ‘error bars’ The search for the truth S C I E N C E Delivers the best and most accurate explanation at a given time No other framework or mind-set comes remotely close to the many provisions of science
- 40. Science: The mostpowerful methodology devised Engineering: Applying the realisations of science Technology: The creation of integrated solutions A comprehensive understanding is the prime objective Partial and marginal understandings are often sufficient Solutions that amplify human capabilities & advancement “Perfection is the enemy of progress” Perspective
- 41. 1000s of yearsand 10s of civilisations pursuing the same basic goals: • An Elixir of Life and Immortality • Tr a n s m u t i n g m e t a l s i n t o g o l d • Finding the Philosophers Stone • Discovering nature’s secrets • Purifying the human soul • Creating life itself “A total failure on all counts, but their jour ney laid the foundations for basic chemistry & metallurgy +++” Genesis 1 R a n d o m A l c h e m y “Self interest, isolation and a lack of community & communication limited the spread of knowledge”
- 42. 1000s of years& 10s of civilisations pursuing the same basic goals: • Appeasing The Gods • Predicting The Future • C h a r t i n g T h e S e a s o n s • Modelling The Heavens • Navigation & Geography G e n e s i s 2 A s t r o n o m y “The ‘Gods’ and‘Futures’ were a total failure, but geography and charting the season + modelling the heavens saw great success”
- 43. G e ne s i s 3 M a t h e m a t i c s & P h i l o s o p h y 10th century CE Greek copy of Aristarchus of Samos’s calculations of the relative sizes of the sun, moon and the earth. Patterns and relationships often a ff orded mystic properties, and seen as the work of a deity or spiritual force… 1000s of years & 10s of civilisations pursuing a need to understand the basic behaviours and patter ns underpinning life, the cosmos, civilisation(s)…. “And today we have ‘The Flat Earth Society’ - ignorance Is alive, well, and killing people all over the planet”
- 44. Recurring Realisation Philosophy is thescience which considers truth & reality “The prime forms of beauty are order, symmetry, de fi niteness, which the mathematical sciences demonstrate in a special degree” Philosophy begins with wonder “A mark of an educated mind is to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it”
- 45. Science Belief Systems Prescriptive Truths & Certainty Easyto Understand no E ff ort to Subsume Thinking not Required Certainty Assured Dynamic Hard Won Uncertain Truths Struggles
- 46. F u nd a m e n t a l ( 1 ) A clarity of objectives & methodology Science: “Rigorous investigation, based on observation, theorising, modelling, experimentation and testing in order to establish the mechanisms of reality and form consistent models of our universe that can be continually tested and corroborated” Objective: “To established the most accurate truths possible” Hard: “A never ending evolution of understanding, established with our latest technologies of observation and experimentation”
- 47. F u nd a m e n t a l ( 2 ) A confusion of objectives & methodology Non-Sciences: “Looking for evidence to support a pre-assumed reality and/or ‘obvious/desired/beliefs’ sans valid supporting facts or corroboration” “Science doesn’t care what you believe” “AI does/doesn’t care what you think”
- 48. Fundamental (3) “The abilityto understand the universe is de fi ned by our leading edge technologies, and instruments of measurement and observation. They de fi ne the accuracy and depth of our models and understanding. We are locked into a positive feedback loop - more technology sees greater knowledge creates more advanced technology”
- 49. Fundamental (4) The JamesWebb telescope is reshaping our understanding of cosmic scale, and that the universe may be far more complex, structured, and populated with galaxies than we ever imagined. These discoveries suggest we're still in the early stages of understanding the true size and nature of the cosmos.
- 50. Qin Shi Huang GaiusCaligular Attila The Hun Gengis Khan Tomas de Torquemada Timur Tamerlane Vlad The Impaler Ivan the Terrible Joseph Lenin Benito Mussolini Adolph Hitler Mao Zedong Pol Pot Stalin Idi Amin Vladimir Putin Nazis ~ 80M Deaths Exploiters of Science But occult believers !! To qualify for this list - must bear a responsibility for >100k deaths Fundamental (5) A m i x i n g o f i g n o r a n c e , superstition, beliefs, pseudo- science and science, appears to conjure the worst failures in history
- 51. Philosophy : islike being in a dark room and looking for a black cat Metaphysics: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat that isn’t there Theology: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat that isn’t there and shouting “I’ve found it!” Science: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat with a torch RELATIVITY :-) Engineering: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat with a torch and deciding there has to be a better way!
- 52. Engineering IS Applied science Allour basic physical Laws have been used, tried and tested, Millions of times and never found to be wanting…but if any anomalies occur, then a correction would be made..
- 53. Engineering IS Applied science I V R =_ All our basic physical Laws have been used, tried and tested, Millions of times and never found to be wanting…but if any anomalies occur, then a correction would be made..
- 54. Engineering IS Applied science “Allthe instruments of science have to be engineered” Trying to design/build using scienti fi c knowledge naturally weeds out errors (conceptual and factual) and sees further cycles of re fi nement I V R = _ All our basic physical Laws have been used, tried and tested, Millions of times and never found to be wanting…but if any anomalies occur, then a correction would be made.. “Continual application a ff ords us great surety and con fi dence”
- 55. Understanding Key phases ofcomprehension It is common to fi nd conceptual, model, numerical, & publication errors that result in the right (or close enough) answer for the wrong reasons - and this is another key mechanism of scienti fi c progress!! 1) As a student attending lectures 2) As a professional designing and building things 3) As a Professor teaching students !!
- 56. H u mi l i t y & C o u r ag e Scientific method is not a suit of armour At a German Physical Society Conference in Leipzig (1930) a young and relatively unknown scientist (Lev Davidovich Landau), pointed out a fl aw in one of Einstein’s equations, causing Einstein to pause and reconsider. Landau would later become a highly in fl uential physicist, recognised for his contributions to various fi elds, including condensed matter physics. “No matter who you are , your rank’ or what you have done, you can always be challenged and you can always learn” Einstein, known for his brilliance, acknowledged the validity of Landau's point and paused to reconsider the equation. This act of humility and intellectual honesty impressed the audience. Landau challenged the validity of an equation Einstein presented. He argued that the equation was not invariant under certain transformations, a crucial criterion for physical laws.
- 57. Without Technology Reasons for,and explanations of, our universe (and everything in it) saw peoples resorting to: - Superstition - Belief Systems - Witchcraft, Alchemy, Magic All provide dubious/mostly erroneous answers for cause, e ff ect and outcomes - generally without room for any doubt, discussion or question. This state has often been/is imposed through threat & terror spanning hell, torture, and death! Generally, winning this battle sees dogma and absolutism that ultimately lubricates the path to the control of predominantly ignorant populations
- 58. With Technology Reasons for,and explanations of, our universe and everything in it through science based on: - Observation - Experiments - Measurement - Repeatability - Peer Review - Constant testing/challenge/debate Science cannot deliver certainty, or absolute answers - however, it can deliver the best ‘models’ of cause & e ff ect based upon our technologies of observation and measurement at a given time!
- 59. S C IE N C E U n i q u e l y t o h u m a n s “We are seeking a dynamic and oft stochastic truth that can be capricious without warning …witness cosmology & quantum mechanics …due to the fundamental nature/ nonlinearity and complexity of the universe”
- 60. MODERN VERSION C la s s i c 2 0 t h C P e r s p e c t i v e R i c h a rd F e y n m a n 1 9 6 4 A h e ro o f t h e o re t i c a l p h y s i c s a n d t h e q u a n t u m w o r l d / c o m p u t i n g www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw
- 61. D e li g h t i n Being Wrong This is a fundamental to all research and the scienti fi c process, and integral to the path of knowledge build/ creation. Unfortunately, it is not a common practice, or meme, in any other discipline or practice!
- 62. Pe e rre v i e w f e e d b a c k c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e Today’s version R e f i n e d 2 1 s t C P e r s p e c t i v e
- 63. T h ed i v i d e b e t w e e n s c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y, i s b l u r r e d b y t h e n e e d f o r w o r k a b l e s o l u t i o n s , a n d t h e i r m u t u a l d e p e n d e n c e a n d r o l e i n s c i e n t i f i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s Pe e r re v i e w f e e d b a c k c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e Today’s version R e f i n e d 2 1 s t C P e r s p e c t i v e Engineering and tech Enable and empower Science to often Correct and steer to A better truth
- 64. Science and Engineering Philosophers: Letus think how a chicken might work! Physicists: Lets dismantle it and take a look see! Brain scanners and chip implants plus AI and Quantum Computing may facilitate fi rmer foundations for all the ‘soft sciences’ in the future The chasm between the hard and soft science is likely to narrow signi fi cantly due to tech advances Engineers: Lets build a better one - how hard can it be? The challenges faced by engineers are only going to get more complex and diverse with time Different mind sets, questions, outcomes, that continually cross-check, challenge and reinforce the base model
- 65. A re res u l t s re p e a t a b l e , c a n t h e y b e c h e c k e d b y o t h e r s u s i n g s i m i l a r o r d i ff e re n t t e c h ? T h i s i s n o t a l w a y s p o s s i b l e a t t h e l e a d i n g e d g e ! DELAYED / IMPOSSIBLE ? C o r r o b o r a t i o n m a y b e a t a l l o r d e r …
- 66. ADVICE 1. Before youaddress a problem think what a reasonable outcome might be 2. Take all prior e ff orts into account; do not be shy of challenging the status quo 3. Form a starting hypothesis carefully, but if you can’t, then make an educated guess 4. Remember that a failure is still a result; do not underestimate the power of iteration 5. Be open minded and willing to change your world view on the basis of new evidence 6. Strive to understand what is most likely to be true and not what you wish it to be 7. If you get a positive outcome, check your methodology/results carefully and repeat 8. Throughout; seek the counsel and critical eye of colleagues - be prepared to rethink 9. If your results are consistently repeatable you may just be onto something! 10. If you can repeat your result using di ff erent approaches it may be time to publish!
- 67. Imperfect The best wecan do: Humans are imperfect Machines are imperfect AI in a human world prone to err Robots create repeatable precision Commercial pressures >> biased results Political pressures >> purposeful bias/steer Academic pressures >> quantity over quality Publish or perish + money seeds corruption and > 10k fake papers/year “Technology can now help and guide us in ‘policing’ the scienti fi c framework”
- 68. Corrections Relentless attention todetail Purposeful skepticism Nothing is sacrosanct Peer review and debate Repeatable experiments Continual result cross-checking Coherent, logical, supporting, results Relational frameworks across disciplines Logical build from hypothesis to theory/results Improved measurement & experiments with time Weeding out of aberrations and any stray outcomes Purposeful recasting of theories in the light of new evidence
- 69. AN ACTUAL Failure Aneagerness to get a result sees mistakes Subject = PhD in XXX Supervisor (3) = XXXX Prime Mission = XXX Methodology = Analysis of reported interview materials PhD Student = XXX & Mathematically Weak Supervisor (3) = Mathematically Weak Prime Mission = ‘To just get a PhD @ minimum cost’ Prime Limiter = ‘Lack of dedication, focus & interest’
- 70. AN ACTUAL Failure Aninitial analysis result for a sample of 18 On the basis of the rapid convergence Supervisor (3) declared we had cracked it, and no more work was required! BUT this is very clearly wrong! 1) Such a small sample could easily be exhibiting a rogue/incomplete result 2) The data is biased in that all the subjects agreed to be interviewed 3) It is likely that even bigger numbers refused/were not approached 4) We don’t know the population size - and have ‘no error bars’ 5) We have no assessment of interviewee truthfulness 6) The sample is all male, white, western, young 7) What about the RoW + Rogue States +++
- 71. AN ACTUAL Failure Whatwas the mechanism at work here ? 1) Unprofessional 2) No code of practice 3) No ethical framework 4) Mathematical ignorance 5) An academic lacking experience 6) A burning need to publish another paper 7) No cognisance of what being a PhD supervisor means
- 72. Frequent Error C or r e l a t i o n a n d C a u s a t i o n ! Correlation identi fi es relationships between variables. Synchrony of variables does not guarantee a causal relationship.
- 73. Frequent Error C or r e l a t i o n a n d C a u s a t i o n ! Correlation identi fi es relationships between variables. Synchrony of variables does not guarantee a causal relationship.
- 74. Frequent Error C or r e l a t i o n & C a u s a t i o n ! Correlation identi fi es relationships between variables. Synchrony of variables does not guarantee a causal relationship.
- 75. Frequent Error C or r e l a t i o n & C a u s a t i o n ! Correlation identi fi es relationships between variables. Synchrony of variables does not guarantee a causal relationship.
- 76. E d uc at i o n Must change with time “I hear and I forget, I see and I remember, I do and I understand”
- 77. S E GU A E Common Paradox “Those critical of science, scientists, and scientific advice, voice their beliefs using technologies furnished by the very science they wish to discredit and dispel”
- 78. S E GU A E Common Paradox The ignorant Right ? The educated Left ? “Those critical of science, scientists, and scientific advice, voice their beliefs using technologies furnished by the very science they wish to discredit and dispel”
- 79. Purposeful Failures The purveyorsof falsehoods, lies, conspiracies We have to examine the range of motivations here - it is often political, criminal, subversion, commercial, economic, religious, ignorance, cult driven….. It is almost always dangerous, impacting signi fi cantly on large numbers of the ignorant, naieve, foolish, believers….and all to often social media is at the kernel!
- 80. F a il u r e s By Design “This is where ‘Mary on FaceBook’ (who knows zip) is far more believable than all the dedicated experts who spent their lives establishing truths & protecting the public from brainwashing, deceit, harm, fraudsters et al” “This is where those in power lacking morals and any ethical code exploit the simple minded, along with those seeking change, and wanting it all to be true”
- 81. W a nt i n g i t a l l T o B e T r u e Belief trumps evidence/reason
- 82. SciFi Media Movies Illiteracy Language Education Innumeracy Social Media +++ Propaganda Popularism Commerce Celebrities Fashion Politics Fakery Cults +++ S oc i e ta l F a i l u r e Prime influencers ? US economist, social philosopher
- 83. Science under Threat byA Tide of Ignorance “Any argument posed sans evidence and validated facts can likewise be dismissed out of hand” - Dictators - Politicians - Extremists - In fl uencers - Social Media - Organisations “Routinely telling lies seems to have become normalised along with hatred replacing rational thought and debate ”
- 84. Threats to Science ATide of Ignorance - Unquestioning and unthinking - Blind belief in ancient texts - Wilful denial of evidence - Pseudo-scientists - Poorly educated “A (Jewish) book written from the 5th C on - translated into latin, edited and redacted by the Catholic Church - then translated into English taken as the guiding text and predictor of the future ” Harold Camping Preacher Predicted the end of the world from the Bible to be May 21 2011 Died at age 92 Left $120M
- 85. Dunning-Krueger effect Psychological Paradox:The less educated/ competent people tend to see themselves as superior whilst the well educated and competent often doubt themselves and their abilities. Charles Darwin: "Ignorance is more likely to engender con fi dence than knowledge" Bertrand Russell: "An unpleasant quality of our time is that those who are con fi dent are stupid, and those with deep understanding are full of doubt and indecision." D-K Research Starting Point The failure to recognise mistakes reinforces self-con fi dence, self-belief, and the sense of superiority
- 86. Death of Civilisations -Ignorance - Corruption - Believing lies - No Compassion - Denying the truth - Loss of humanity - Celebrating idiots USA ? Russia ? Middle East ?
- 87. Science paradox “People gladlyembrace and enjoy the bene fi ts of science whilst at the same time trying to deny and/or challenge its validity” Facts should define the truth Lies can never define the facts
- 88. Profound Stupidity “The brains thatbelieve and propagate such nonsense are a disgrace to our species”
- 89. F a il u r e How did we get here ?
- 90. Profound Stupidity Crazy/Idiotic/Insane: “God createddinosaur fossils in order to test our faith” “Christian calculations based on the Bible estimate the Earth to be no more than 6000 years old”
- 91. D e sc r i b e d a s a s t a r G a t e F i g m e n t o f H o l l y w o o d M o v i e N o f o u n d i n g h y p o t h e s i s , t h e o r y, demonstrable experimental evidence, or any indirect evidence…
- 92. LOTS OF Fakery Fi g m e n t s o f F o r g e r y
- 93. LOTS OF Fakery Fi g m e n t s o f F o r g e r y SPOOF
- 94. S C IE N CE Politicians & public: Science is very poorly taught in schools and so people in general do not understand the basics and are easily taken in by scams like this!
- 95. C O NF U S I O N S t i l l n o t w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e . R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i , t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s
- 96. Pseudo SCIENCE The easy antithesis: “Thebig problem with ‘unthinking belief’ comes when people invest substantial amounts of time, $$, energy in their model or system; it can become impossible to admit that they are wrong, or have been duped” PseudoSCIENCE Easy exploitable antithesis: “The big problem with ‘unthinking belief’ comes when people invest substantial amounts of time, $$, energy in their model or system; it can become impossible to admit that they are wrong, or have been duped or swindled” Lies Rumour Whispers Unthinking Blind Belief The In-Crowd Indoctrination Unchallenging Low Discipline Unquestioning Poor Education Follow The Herd No Fact Checking Go With The Flow Conspiracy Theories Fashionable Ignorance
- 97. N o PR O O F P s e u d o s c i e n c e s Homeopathic medicines are diluted far more than this ! Dilution rates are typically less than 1 part in 10EXP20 According to the believers the greater the dilution the more effective the treatment!
- 98. N o PR O O F P s e u d o s c i e n c e s Homeopathic medicines are diluted far more than this ! Dilution rates are typically less than 1 part in 10EXP20 According to the believers the greater the dilution the more effective the treatment! ALL THIS IS UNPROVEN AND FLIES IN THE FACE OF ALL ESTABLISHED SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE
- 99. A S LI C E O F H I S T O R Y D e s t r u c t i o n o f w o r k s The collection started ~1320 only to be denuded of books in 1550 by Richard Cox, Dean of the newly-founded Christ Church. He acted under legislation by King Edward VI to purge the English church of all traces of Catholicism, including ‘superstitious books and images’. In the words of historian Anthony Wood, ‘some books taken by the Reformers were burnt, some sold away for Robin Hood’s pennyworths, either to Booksellers, or to Glovers to press their gloves, or Taylors to make measures, or to Bookbinders to cover books…. The library was rescued by Sir Thomas Bodley (1545–1613), a Fellow of Merton College who had travelled extensively in Europe between 1585 and 1596 engaged in diplomatic missions for Queen Elizabeth I…The library was opened to scholars in 1620…
- 100. A S LI C E O F H I S T O R Y D e s t r u c t i o n o f w o r k s The collection started ~1320 only to be denuded of books in 1550 by Richard Cox, Dean of the newly-founded Christ Church. He acted under legislation by King Edward VI to purge the English church of all traces of Catholicism, including ‘superstitious books and images’. In the words of historian Anthony Wood, ‘some books taken by the Reformers were burnt, some sold away for Robin Hood’s pennyworths, either to Booksellers, or to Glovers to press their gloves, or Taylors to make measures, or to Bookbinders to cover books…. The library was rescued by Sir Thomas Bodley (1545–1613), a Fellow of Merton College who had travelled extensively in Europe between 1585 and 1596 engaged in diplomatic missions for Queen Elizabeth I…The library was opened to scholars in 1620… Most societies and Religions engage in book burnings At some point Nazis Pagans DESPOTS communists Christians islamists some USA Schools are Purging libraries And trying to enforce Creationism and Political correctness We might therefore conclude that science Is always at risk from the rise of ignorance And bigotry
- 101.