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Automation, ai and jobs
The document discusses how automation, robotics, and AI will significantly impact global job markets over the next three decades, leading to massive skill set changes and job displacement, especially in developed countries. India has a unique opportunity during this transition, as it is projected to see a net job gain due to a large, young workforce, but it must address challenges related to skills training and service delivery. Overall, the demand for specific skills will rise while traditional job roles will evolve or disappear, necessitating a comprehensive strategy for workforce development and economic planning.
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Impact of digitization, automation, and AI on job markets expected to grow over 30 years.
Case study of robotics in Japan and firms using automation, blurring skill boundaries.
Advent of Cyber Physical Systems; technologies like IoT and AI transforming industries.
Projected maturity of various technologies, highlighting AI and Blockchain over coming decades.
Skills in demand for analytical roles; technology eliminating factory jobs but creating new field jobs.
McKinsey report showing job loss projections by 2025 and sectors most at risk due to automation.
Predicted job losses globally due to automation but new jobs created; transition estimates from McKinsey.
Example from Australian photography job market showing no net loss but changes in job types.
Overview of job statistics related to driving sectors; expected job losses balanced by new job creation.
Forecast for Blockchain technology and its effect on various sectors and job creation through 2030.
Expected job changes globally with no net losses, redefined human-machine interaction raises training needs.
India projected to gain jobs; challenges in massive skills training to capitalize on demographic advantages.
India's demographic advantage over developed nations amidst a changing global workforce landscape.
Challenges of cultural and language barriers in providing global services; trifurcation of skills.
Employment potential varies significantly across levels of skill sets; India's role in global markets.
India's strategic positioning for roles in global tech service jobs, needs for entrepreneurship & training.
India's agenda for next three decades to enhance employment, improve incomes, and strengthen manufacturing.
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- 1. Tremors in Jobmarkets and Trifurcation of skill sets in three decades (due to Digitisation, Automation, Robotics & Artificial Intelligence.) Apr 7 2018 Dr. P. Balasubramanian, Ph.D. Founder & CEO, Theme Work Analytics, Bangalore balasubp@gmail.com IITM BC Alumni Meet * * An abridged version was presented. Contributions from fellow alumni T.R.Sankaranarayanan, P.Jayasimha, Shankar Hariharan and Krishnan Narayanan are acknowledged with gratitude.
- 2. Tremors in Jobmarkets and Trifurcation of skill sets in three decades Synopsys Automation, Robotics, Analytics and Artificial Intelligence based technology solutions have been impacting the job markets for decades now. These impacts are expected to multiply manifold in the next three decades when newer technologies such as Autonomous Vehicles and Blockchain add to the momentum. Starting with mild tremors in the coming decade, it is projected that major disruptions are bound to occur subsequently in job skills and job markets globally. We explore these trends and then project how India can sense an opportunity and make best use of it by forming a smart agenda.
- 3. Oshino, Yamanashi Prefecture,Japan Fanuc Global HQ This town has a population of 9000 people and seven times more robots Fanuc has self teaching robots for bin picking. They are at 90% accuracy now. No need for additional coding. AI is doing it for them.Robots making Robots It has a 86000 sf factory with 4 human workers supervising at any given time. Automation and AI are cascading
- 4. IRobot Google Touch Bionics Northrop Grumman RethinkRobotics Accuray Liquid Robotics Bosch Qbotix Prox Dynamics https://www.fastcompany.com/3026314/the-worlds- top-10-most-innovative-companies-in-robotics These firms recruit human-beings only. The boundary line in skill sets between humans and AI devices is getting to be defined sharply.
- 5. Industry 4.0 The eraof cyber physical systems has begun already Decision capabilities of routine tasks can be fully automated now.
- 6. • IoT, IIoT •Automation, Robotics, Machine Vision, Speech Recognition • Identity Mgt, Network Security, Distributed Networks etal • AI, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Analytics • Additive Printing • GPS, Autonomous Vehicles • Wearable Technologies • Blockchain ( Nextgen SC) Technologies under the hood Interlocking technologies are accelerating the pace The era of cyber physical systems has begun already
- 7. Identity Mgt Robotics Network Security Sensors Nano Tech Machine Vision Deep Learning Speech Recog Analytics NLP Wearable Tech IoT,IIoT Additive Printing Autonom. Vehicles Blockchain Tech Cloud Computing Core and Common Technology developments are fueling many application areas GPS Mobility Mobility
- 8. Technologies Maturity Timeline 2010-202030-402020-30 IoT, IIoT Autonom. Vehicles Blockchain Tech Analytics Additive Printing Machine LearningSpeech Recog Machine Vision Sensors Wear Tech NLP Artificial Intelligence While components of AI would mature within a decade, AI in full form is projected to be ready after two decades. AV technology with accelerated development pace is expected to make major impact in next decade. Blockchain will find its day two decades from now.
- 9. These skills sets arealready in demand now. They are likely to become essential for all analytical functions across domains in a decade.
- 10. Tremors in Jobmarkets and Trifurcation of skill sets in three decades Interlocking technologies are eliminating factory jobs; making many office jobs redundant. But creating millions of new field jobs Three technologies with immense potential for impact on jobs and society are AI, AV and Blockchain.
- 11. USA Jobs atHigh Risks over two decades Most Vulnerable Retail Salesperson Fast food and counter workers Secretaries & Admin Assistants Cashiers Office Clerks 15 million jobs would be lost by 2025 Least Vulnerable Registered Nurses School Teachers General Managers Software Developers First Line Supervisors Routine physical and cognitive function tasks face the highest risk of elimination. Jobs with substantive human interaction, coordination and tech development are projected to grow.
- 12. “Jobs Lost, JobsGained : Workforce Transitions in a time of Automation “ Mckinsey Global Institute report Dec 2017 Under midpoint scenario for automation adoption 2016-30 Jobs Lost, Jobs modified Global China India USAGermany 15 % of work force = 400m 24 % 9 %16 % 23 % Transitioning Work Force =75m to 375 m 50m 60 % of the jobs have automation possibility of atleast 30 % of the tasks A longer term scenario…. The Mckinsey study with a wide scope estimates the loss of nearly 400 m jobs globally by 2030
- 13. Under slow &rapid scenario for automation adoption 2016-30: New Jobs created “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained : Workforce Transitions in a time of Automation“ Mckinsey Global Institute report Dec 2017 New Jobs Created due to income growth, demographic changes, technology and infrastructure investments 555-890 m The Mackinsey study projects a Net New Jobs Creation of 90-150 m by 2030
- 14. Laboratory Vs FieldJobs in Photography: Australian Experience https://theconversation.com/automation-wont-destroy-jobs-but-it-will-change-them-55318 Diagram Credit: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue Number 6291.0.55.003 Illustration of Change in Job types The two decades of experience in Australian photographic job market reveals no net job losses.
- 15. Autonomous Vehicles (AV)and their job impact No of jobs in USA related to driving : 15.5 million No. of Highway Truck drivers : 3.8 million Mail Carriers, Fire Fighters, EMC etc : 11.7 million 2015 data from the US Dept of Commerce No of jobs likely to be eliminated per year : 300,000 Projected direct job loss till 2030 : 1.5 m Truck driving, warfare related vehicles driving, hazardous area exploration jobs are in high risk of elimination
- 16. Autonomous Vehicles andtheir job impact New Jobs Creation 2016-2030 Mechanics Roadside Repair Technicians Warehouse Workers Vehicle Inspectors 1. Perception Software Engineer 2. Strategic Account Manager 3. Field Service Technician 4. Industrial Engineer 5. Customer Success Field Representative 6. Field Autonomy Engineer 7. Functional Safety Engineer 8. Autonomous Navigation Software Engineer 9. Robotics Engineer 10. Electrical Engineer Yet sufficient number of new jobs are expected to be created to absorb all direct job losses. They are field jobs and tech development jobs.
- 17. Blockchain Technology willmature in 15 years and its impact will be significant in 3 decades. ◆ Accountants and Book Keepers in Financial Institutions ◆ Supply Chain coordinators in Industries ◆ Contract Custodians in Legal fraternities ◆ Certification,Verification functions in the Education Sector ◆ Healthcare record maintenance firms ◆ And numerous intermediaries in many sectors The technology is yet to mature. It is currently at design and development stage to sort out issues of transparency, trust and data crunch efficiency. Hence no major job losses are projected for the period 2016-2030. Jobs under threat ( long run) Instead numerous Tech jobs are likely to be created during the period of 2016-2030.
- 18. In summary…The GlobalChanges during 2016-30 There won’t be any net job losses globally But regional disparities are bound to happen The structure and content of most jobs would undergo changes Large scale retraining programs have to be mounted Human to machine interaction will be redefined Skill sets trifurcation will begin
- 19. The decade of2030 and beyond Cyber physical systems become pervasive – Can we take orders from machines? AI embedded systems become ubiquitous Job tremors would be visible across many countries Painful transition to the new economy Massive training and retraining with new skill sets needed Periodic retraining on the job would become the norm The impact on developed countries would be high since they need to automate to compensate for shrinking working age population. India on the other hand would face unique challenges
- 20. Good News forIndia Net Job Gain is projected over this period 2016-30 Challenge for India Massive skills training is required Can the Giant wake up and run ?
- 21. The Demographic Dividendfor India in three decades
- 22. Current Scenario The populationpyramid is giving way to an even distribution across all age groups in most developed countries. China is going that way too. But not India.
- 23. Changes in structureby 2035 India would be the most populous country in the world. It will also have a sizeable working age population. China, like many developed countries will have a large number of senior citizens.
- 24. Birth rate inIndia would start to decline warping the pyramid at the bottom. Yet India would continue to have the demographic advantage. Changes in structure by 2035
- 25. China and mostof the developed countries will have a shrinking working population They would have a large aged population to be taken care of with living and healthcare support India will stand apart in its demographic characteristics India can have the advantage of a large population trained in new age skills to provide support services globally
- 26. India can havethe advantage of a large population trained in new age skills to provide support services globally but…. Cultural and language barriers would be formidable to cross while providing these services. Demand for job and wage protection would raise its head in every other country thus tightening the worker migration rules Hence the challenge for India would be to deliver these services remotely. Hence the set of services chosen to be provided globally need to be low on demand for such skills.
- 27. Conceive & Design Implement& Maintain Provide Services The Skill Sets Trifurcation Model Generic Products and Services Apply at Specific Client sites To end customers Manufacturing and Services jobs of the future in any country can be trifurcated as shown here
- 28. The Skill SetsTrifurcation Model Layer Skill Sets Needed Employment Potential The employment generation potential differs vastly from one skill level to another
- 29. What role canIndia play? Conceive & Design Design Thinking, Conceptualization, Tech Architecture, Parametrization, Build Skills 1X ? ✔ Implement & Maintain Domain Knowledge, Configuring & Testing, Tech Integration, User Training 20X ✔ ✔ Provide Services System Operation, Client Liaison, Coordination, Problem Solving 400X ✖ ✔ Global Market Local Market India can build on its Technology Services skill sets and market advantage to play a dominant role in the middle layer globally.
- 30. What role canIndia play? Conceive & Design Design Thinking, Conceptualization, Tech Architecture, Parametrization, Build Skills 1X ? ✔ Implement & Maintain Domain Knowledge, Configuring & Testing, Tech Integration, User Training 20X ✔ ✔ Provide Services System Operation, Client Liaison, Coordination, Problem Solving 400X ✖ ✔ Global Market Local Market India can build on its Technology Services skill sets and market advantage to play a dominant role in the middle layer globally.
- 31. What role canIndia play? Conceive & Design Design Thinking, Conceptualization, Tech Architecture, Parametrization, Build Skills 1X ? ✔ Implement & Maintain Domain Knowledge, Configuring & Testing, Tech Integration, User Training 20X ✔ ✔ Provide Services System Operation, Client Liaison, Coordination, Problem Solving 400X ✖ ✔ Global Market Local Market India needs a higher level of exposure to global markets and to develop its entrepreneurial ecosystem to Conceive & Design Products & Services for the global markets.
- 32. What role canIndia play? Conceive & Design Design Thinking, Conceptualization, Tech Architecture, Parametrization, Build Skills 1X ? ✔ Implement & Maintain Domain Knowledge, Configuring & Testing, Tech Integration, User Training 20X ✔ ✔ Provide Services System Operation, Client Liaison, Coordination, Problem Solving 400X ✖ ✔ Global Market Local Market Protectionism, Language and Cultural barriers would by and large limit the bottom layer jobs to country citizens
- 33. What role canIndia play? Conceive & Design Design Thinking, Conceptualization, Tech Architecture, Parametrization, Build Skills 1X ? ✔ Implement & Maintain Domain Knowledge, Configuring & Testing, Tech Integration, User Training 20X ✔ ✔ Provide Services System Operation, Client Liaison, Coordination, Problem Solving 400X ✖ ✔ Global Market Local Market However all Layers are wide open in local markets for Indian citizens. They present immense opportunity for job creation.
- 34. Pramit Bhattacharya www.livemint.com12 Apr 2018 Which are the top sectors that generate employment in India? During past 25 years… Substantial number of jobs have been created in construction and other low end services jobs. Farming sector has lost many jobs and mass migration to urban centres has taken place, insufficient growth in manufacturing sector and its low competitive strength in global economy India’s current scenario
- 35. India’s Challenges forthe next three decades Generate employment in millions every month Improve per capita income year on year to meet growing aspirations Disperse growing population away from urban centres; strengthen rural and suburban economies Strengthen the manufacturing base to increase output, improve quality and enhance export share Retain the global technology services lead in coming decades Build and Leverage tech based skills to enhance global market share Technology can be made best use of to realize the first four non technical goals stated above
- 36. India Agenda, inshort, for the next three decades Build capabilities to be the global ( remote) management and maintenance service providers for Products and Services Build strong and multifaceted manufacturing sector for local markets Create cluster of Smart Cities in each district of the country Mastering the new age technologies is imperative Revamping curricula across all educational segments Coordinating the Policy, Infrastructure and Enterprise initiatives India has to build on these themes and develop a blue print for action