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The Path to General-Purpose Robots - Coatue
The document presents an overview of the current state and future prospects of robotics, highlighting the evolution of robots from niche applications to the potential for general-purpose use driven by advancements in AI. It addresses historical challenges in robotics commercialization and discusses the importance of adaptive learning and data collection in enhancing robot capabilities. Additionally, it emphasizes the ongoing development of robot hardware and the declining costs of components, which may facilitate broader adoption.
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The Path to General-Purpose Robots - Coatue
- 1. The Path to General-Purpose Robots July2024 Sri Viswanath, Vibhor Khanna, Yijia Liang, Abhi Srinivas, Zach Cherian
- 2. 2 Disclaimer THIS PRESENTATION DOESNOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY AN INTEREST IN A FUND OR VEHICLE MANAGED BY COATUE MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. (“COATUE”). ANY SUCH OFFER OR SOLICITATION WILL BE MADE ONLY AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFEREE RECEIVES A CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE OFFERING MEMORANDUM OR OTHER OFFERING DOCUMENT (“CPOM”) DESCRIBING THE OFFERING AND RELATED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT. IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE CPOM, THE CPOM SHALL CONTROL. COATUE HAS PROVIDED THIS PRESENTATION SOLELY IN CONNECTION WITH ONGOING OR INTENDED DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PERSON TO WHOM IT HAS BEEN DELIVERED. IN THIS REGARD, THE PERFORMANCE FIGURES, AND CERTAIN OTHER INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS PRESENTATION, REQUIRE FURTHER EXPLANATION AND MUST BE DISCUSSED WITH YOUR COATUE REPRESENTATIVES. ACCORDINGLY, PROSPECTIVE INVETORS SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION ABSENT SUCH DISCUSSIONS. NO SECURITIES OR SERVICES SHALL BE OFFERED OR SOLD IN ANY JURISDICTION IN WHICH SUCH OFFER, SOLICITATION OR SALE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL UNTIL THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION HAVE BEEN SATISFIED. WHILE ALL THE INFORMATION PREPARED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, COATUE MAKES NO EXPRESS WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ERRORS, APPEARING IN THE PRESENTATION. NEITHER COATUE NOR ITS AFFILIATES ASSUMES ANY DUTY TO UPDATE THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES OF ANY KIND AND THERE IS NO ASSURANCE THAT THE POLICIES, STRATEGIES OR APPROACHES DISCUSSED HEREIN WILL NOT CHANGE. ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS. OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT INVESTMENT RETURNS OR PERFORMANCE. ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL OCCUR. HISTORICAL RETURNS ARE NOT PREDICTIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS AND PARAMETERS, PROCEDURES, POLICIES, AND INVESTMENT AND OTHER PERSONNEL MAY BE CHANGED, MODIFIED, TERMINATED OR SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME, WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS PRESENTATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE OR DISTRIBUTION. THIS PRESENTATION HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED BY THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR ANY OTHER FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATOR. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES IN THE APPENDIX.
- 3. Key Topics 2. TheDawn of a New Era: General-Purpose Robots 1. Past & Present: Where is Robotics Today? 4. Future: A Thriving Robotics Ecosystem 3. When is the ChatGPT Moment for Robotics? 3
- 4. 4 The ‘curse’ ofrobotics today: demos are not always reality Source: Boston Dynamics. For illustrative purposes only. See Appendix-Disclosures for additional information. …after failing many times! Robots get it right for a demo… Click to play this video Click to play this video Click to play this video Click to play this video Click to play this video
- 5. 1961 First industrial robot, deliveredto GM 20 humans Equivalent estimated output of “Unimate” robot in factory welding 5 Source: IEEE Spectrum. For illustrative purposes only. See Appendix-Disclosures for additional information. Robots have been in the field for decades
- 6. 2020 Unitree A1 robot doglaunched 2002 Roomba vacuum cleaner launched 6 Source: Aqua Magazine, IRobot, Grillbots.com, Unitree. For illustrative purposes only. See Appendix-Disclosures for additional information. Home robots have been around 50+ years for niche use cases 1958 First automatic pool cleaner developed 2014 Grillbot automated grill cleaner announced
- 7. 7 Source: The RobotReport / IFR, iRobot, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Robotics adoption has been linear historically 53 58 65 74 85 98 108 124 140 151 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8M 16M 24M 32M Industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing FTE iRobot cumulative shipments Industrial Robots Home Robots
- 8. 8 Examples of roboticsprojects that wound down operations in 2022-2023 Source: The Robot Report, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Many robotics startups struggled with commercialization and cost 1 2 3 Struggled to bring useful robot to market Difficulty finding early adopters in core segments Tough unit economics given high upfront CapEx Possible factors that led to failure
- 9. 9 Robot hardware hasbeen rapidly developing across form factors Source: IFR, Roboticsfornow.com, Wall Street Journal, Unitree, Goldman Sachs, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Collaborative & Traditional Industrial Autonomous Mobile Drones Quadrupeds Humanoids 1M+ Shipped in 2021-2022 120K+ Shipped in 2022 1M+ Drone deliveries in 2023 $3K Quadruped robot starting price in 2024 20+ Companies building humanoid robots from 2013 - present
- 10. 10 Source: Coatue opinionand analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Coming soon Available now We believe the path to general-purpose robotics is AI Single-Purpose Robots General-Purpose Robots Adaptive learning for many tasks and situations Pre-programmed for specific tasks
- 11. 11 As LLMs enablelanguage reasoning, spatial AI models enable physical world reasoning Source: Weaviate, Covariant, TED, Figure. Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. We expect spatial AI models to accelerate generalizability LLMs Spatial AI Models Text only Model learns relationships between words Multiple modalities Model learns relationships between physical objects Reasoning over text-based queries Reasoning over physical interactions
- 12. Key Topics 2. TheDawn of a New Era: General-Purpose Robots 1. Past & Present: Where is Robotics Today? 4. Future: A Thriving Robotics Ecosystem 3. When is the ChatGPT Moment for Robotics? 12
- 13. 13 Many tasks thatare easy for humans are hard for robots Source: UC Berkeley, DARPA, CMU, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. 1 2 3 Dexterity Spatial Awareness Recovery Click to play this video Click to play this video Click to play this video
- 14. 14 Data scarcity iscurrently a major bottleneck for robotics AI Source: FineWeb, LAION-5B, YouTube 8-M, Open X-Embodiment, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Modality Largest Dataset Size Example AI Models Text 15T Tokens Image 6B Images Video 2.6B Videos Robotics 2.4M Robot Scenes 15T Tokens 6B Image-Text Pairs 2.6B Audio/Visual Features 2.4M Episodes Not enough for general-purpose AI model
- 15. Research publications inrobotics, showing select examples Open research has accelerated progress Source: Arxiv, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. 5K 10K 15K 20K 25K 30K 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/24 Attention Is All You Need Zero-Shot Visual Imitation Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models Mobile ALOHA: 15
- 16. 16 Several data collectionapproaches are promising: Teleoperation Source: ALOHA, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Teleoperation AR Data Simulation Video Learning Click to play this video Hard to scale and less generalizable
- 17. 17 Several data collectionapproaches are promising: AR Data Source: Honda Research Institute, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Teleoperation AR Data Simulation Video Learning Click to play this video Low headset usage
- 18. 18 Several data collectionapproaches are promising: Simulation Source: NVIDIA, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Teleoperation AR Data Simulation Video Learning Click to play this video Gap between simulation and real- world translation (“Sim2Real”)
- 19. 19 Several data collectionapproaches are promising: Video Learning Source: HumanPlus. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Teleoperation AR Data Simulation Video Learning Click to play this video In early research
- 20. 20 Source: Azure. Forillustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. A100 spot pricing on Azure ($/hr) GPU costs have dropped, leading to cheaper model training $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 6/23 7/23 8/23 9/23 10/23 11/23 12/23 1/24 2/24 3/24 4/24 5/24 6/24 Azure A100 -75%
- 21. 21 L3 LiDAR sensorcosts Source: Goldman Sachs. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Robot components are expected to get cheaper Humanoid coreless motor costs 2024 2028 2032 2036 $200 $400 $600 $800 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 $800 $1,600 $2,400 $3,200 $4,000 $4,800 $5,600 $6,400 $7,200 $8,000
- 22. 22 Battery cost Batteryenergy density Source: Bloomberg NEF Research, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Robot components have gotten better 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 150 300 450 2012 2016 2020 2024 $200 $400 $600 $800 per kWh per Wh/L
- 23. 23 Source: Goldman Sachs,BLS, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Humanoid component costs (one-time) vs. Human wage (annual) Overall humanoid hardware cost expected to dramatically decrease 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 $50K $100K $150K $200K $250K Cost of humanoid US wage
- 24. 24 Source: Goldman Sachs,Figure AI. For illustrative purposes only. Humanoids listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Humanoid walking speed Some humanoids today operate faster than humans 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.3 Walker (UBTech) Pepper (Softbank) CyberOne (Xiaomi) Mercury (Elephant) Figure 01 (Figure) Digit (Agility) Optimus (Tesla) Asimo (Honda) H1 (Unitree) 1.42 m/s Average human walking speed SOPHIA (Hanson Robotics) Atlas (Boston Dynamics)
- 25. 25 Human-like dexterity ison the way Source: Clone Robotics. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Click to play this video
- 26. 26 Source: Morgan StanleyResearch, Kepler Robotics, AgiBot, The Robot Report, EqualOcean, Huawei Central, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. Select humanoid launches More humanoid initiatives are emerging 1 1 1 2 3 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 0 0 0
- 27. 27 Source: Waseda University,SAIC, Xiao & Gao (Vehicle System Dynamics), Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures. We expect humanoid autonomy to accelerate as with AVs Level of autonomy Autonomous vehicles Humanoids L5 Fully autonomous L4 Highly autonomous L3 Self-driving with light intervention L2 Tesla Autopilot L1 Cruise control Fully autonomous, generalizable across tasks Highly autonomous for most tasks Task-specific with light intervention Advanced locomotion and some dexterity Basic motion First full-scale humanoid made in early 1970s ~20 Years <10 years! ~50 Years Next 5 years?
- 28. 28 We believe hardwarerobustness will enable extraordinary abilities! Source: DellyTech, Unitree, Tesla, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Robots exhibiting increased durability… …and increasingly able to do more with better hardware Superhero-level humanoids next?
- 29. Key Topics 2. TheDawn of a New Era: General-Purpose Robots 1. Past & Present: Where is Robotics Today? 4. Future: A Thriving Robotics Ecosystem 3. When is the ChatGPT Moment for Robotics? 29
- 30. 30 The ChatGPT Momentfor robotics is coming soon…? For illustrative purposes only. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures.
- 31. 31 Three big “WOW!”Moments in technology in the last 20 years Source: Waymo, CleanTechnica, Figure, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. 2007 2022 2024 Coming soon iPhone ChatGPT & LLMs Autonomous Vehicles Robotics
- 32. 32 These characteristics oftenhelp create a “WOW!” moment in tech Source: Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Virality & Adoption Use Cases Cost Ecosystem Rapidly goes mainstream via word-of-mouth Exciting use cases from day one Price point accessible to majority Thriving developer community
- 33. 33 Prediction: Robot Momentwon’t look like ChatGPT Moment Source: Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Adoption & Virality Use Cases Cost Ecosystem Scorecard 2007 2024 Coming soon iPhone Waymo Robotics 2022 ChatGPT & LLMs Physical limitations to adoption Potential across many tasks Costs still high Nascent ecosystem
- 34. 34 Source: Coatue opinionand analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. In-movie robots Out-of-home robots In-home robots From seeing to experiencing, then owning robots Fictional and fun! Meant to entertain you Built into customer experience Direct ownership Robot in coffee shop fully handles customers Consumer owns multi-task robot at home
- 35. 35 Coatue View: Howhuman(oids) might grow up Source: Canva, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Humanoid warehouses Humanoid stores Humanoid firefighter Humanoid surgeon Humanoid cleaner Humanoid chef Humanoid concierge Humanoid nanny Walking Speaking Writing Driving Newborn Capabilities In-Home Humanoid Capabilities Out-of-Home Humanoid Capabilities 1 year 3 years 5 years 15 years
- 36. Key Topics 2. TheDawn of a New Era: General-Purpose Robots 1. Past & Present: Where is Robotics Today? 4. Future: A Thriving Robotics Ecosystem 3. When is the ChatGPT Moment for Robotics? 36
- 37. 37 Source: Coatue opinionand analysis as of July 2024. This analysis is based on Coatue discretion and includes elements of subjectivity, encompassing funding and rounds based on manual tagging of what Coatue believes to best represent AI robotics companies based on their current and future reported capabilities. This analysis may not be exhaustive, but directionally captures the historical trend. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Funding for AI robotics startups has inflected $0.5B $1.0B $1.5B $2.0B $2.5B $3.0B $3.5B $4.0B $4.5B $5.0B 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/15 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/20 Funding Number of rounds Cumulative Funding Cumulative number of rounds Investors pouring capital into next-gen robotics startups
- 38. 38 Leading talent isstarting robotics companies Source: Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Company Robot Type Humanoid Humanoid Foundation Model Home Robots Stealth Foundation Model Humanoid Founders Brett Adcock Bernt Bornich Chelsea Finn Karol Hausman Sergey Levine Kyle Vogt Paril Jain Luke Holoubek Brad Porter Deepak Pathak Abhinav Gupta Elon Musk Milan Kovac Funding $845M $140M $70M $150M $140M $300M N/A Background
- 39. 39 An ecosystem forAI robots has started to emerge Source: Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Manufacturers Vertically-Integrated (SW+HW) Foundation Models Apps Operations & Maintenance Developer Tools & Datasets
- 40. 40 Robotics rides LLMtailwinds but faces AV-like headwinds Source: S&P Global, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Talent & Research Compute Capital Data Scarcity Supply Chain Constraints $30B+ raised by top AI model companies Tailwinds Headwinds
- 41. 41 Wintel-like partnerships andwalled-garden approaches developing Source: Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. OS Chip HW OEM Wintel AI+HW OEMs Mac Full-Stack (Post-2021) PC Era AI Robotics PC Era AI Robotics
- 42. 42 We expect AI– not hardware – to differentiate humanoids Source: The Startup: Art of the Living Dead, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Cars Phones Robots Undifferentiated Hardware Software & AI Layer Porsche BMW Infiniti Toyota iPhone Samsung Xiaomi Oppo
- 43. Coatue View: Roboticssectors will have different market dynamics Source: Canva, Coatue opinion and analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. Home Industrial Commercial Defense General-purpose humanoids Vertical integration Special-purpose, non-humanoids Partnership approach Special-purpose humanoids Partnership approach Special-purpose superhumanoids Vertical integration: 2-3 robot primes 43
- 44. 44 Source: Coatue opinionand analysis as of July 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Logos listed above as examples of the applicable statements or trends; do not necessarily represent Coatue investments. There is no guarantee that Coatue’s views and projections regarding the future potential of AI and robotics are accurate or that any particular Coatue investment or fund will benefit from the AI or robotics trend. All information based on available data and are subject to change at any time based on additional information received. See Appendix-Disclosures for important disclosures, including regarding projections and trends. We see AI robotics creating the next disruptive platform shift 1960-1980 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2015 - 2020 Cloud / SaaS PC Desktop Internet (Web 1.0) Networking Mobile Internet (Web 2.0) Mainframe 2022 - present AI Robotics 2024 - present AI: The Coming Revolution General-purpose robotics has the potential to be one of the biggest waves yet!
- 45. July 17, 202445 Appendix - Disclosures This presentation is confidential and not intended for public use or further distribution without the prior written consent of Coatue Management, L.L.C. ¡ This presentation reflects Coatue’s opinions and analysis on AI and robotics as of the date of this presentation. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. ¡ Unless otherwise indicated, any figures and calculations herein are for informational purposes only, computed by Coatue or its advisors and not audited by any third party. ¡ Since AI and information herein is based on an emerging technology, we expect our views may evolve or shift over time. As such, information herein is subject to change at anytime without notice. ¡ Although Coatue believes that the data expressed in this presentation is accurate and reasonable, actual results could differ materially from those projected or assumed, and such projections are subject to change, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Neither Coatue nor its affiliates or advisors guarantees the accuracy or completeness of the information. Accordingly, neither Coatue nor any of its affiliates, advisors or employees shall be liable to you or anyone else for any loss or damages from use of the information contained in this presentation. Coatue Analysis Forward-looking Statements & Projections ¡ The companies referenced herein are included for informational purposes only. The information herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The companies do not necessarily represent stocks or investments that Coatue owned or owns. In addition, the trends identified and discussed in this presentation reflect the opinions of Coatue. The trends discussed do not reflect the entire universe and could be impacted by market factors, changes in laws and other factors. ¡ No third-party firm or company names, brands or logos used in this presentation are Coatue’s trademarks or registered trademarks, and they remain the property of their respective holders and not Coatue. The inclusion of any third-party firm and/or company names, brands and/or logos does not imply any affiliation with these firms or companies. None of these firms or companies has endorsed the investment opportunity described herein, Coatue, any affiliates of Coatue, or Coatue’s personnel. Companies and Trends ¡ This presentation contains forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements, including (but not limited to) the occurrence or outcome of anticipated events, estimates, future performance and adaption of AI. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results of these events may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward- looking statements. There is no guarantee that such forecasts, projections or forward-looking statements will occur and therefore should not be relied upon. ¡ Projections are forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those presented herein. Projections are inherently unreliable as they are based on estimates and assumptions about events and conditions that have not yet occurred and any of which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance, representation or warranty is made that any of the projections will occur. Coatue makes no assurance, representation or warranty as to the accuracy or reasonableness of the projections or estimates. Artificial Intelligence (AI) ¡ This presentation contains forward-looking predictions regarding AI and its potential impacts and opportunities, all of which are subject to a number of factors and uncertainties. Any characterization of AI herein is the opinion of Coatue, is subject to change, and should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. Given that AI is an emerging technology, assessing the future trajectory of the AI industry is inherently challenging, and Coatue’s views on its success or failure can be subjective and based on incomplete information, limited perspectives, or speculative assumptions. See also the disclosures regarding forward-looking statements. ¡ Companies herein are not intended to highlight or represent the Coatue portfolio, but rather the broader AI theme, which by nature may include Coatue investments. To the extent Coatue portfolio companies or investments are included herein, Coatue makes no suggestion or guarantee regarding the future outcomes or performance of such companies. ¡ Even if Coatue’s characterizations and opinions regarding the AI trend were to prove accurate, there is no suggestion or guarantee that Coatue will be able to identify and invest in opportunities presented by AI. The AI industry is multifaceted, encompassing various technologies, applications, and market dynamics. Its complexity makes it susceptible to unpredictable developments, including breakthrough innovations, disruptive technologies, or unexpected challenges. § Market data and industry information used throughout this memorandum is based on market and industry data and forecasts that Coatue has derived from publicly available information, various industry publications, other published industry sources and Coatue's knowledge of the industry and the good faith estimates of Coatue management. Coatue also relied, to the extent available, upon our review of independent industry surveys and publications, and other publicly available information prepared by a number of sources. All of the market data and industry information used herein involves a number of assumptions and limitations, and you are cautioned not to give undue weight to such estimates. § Certain estimates or projections in this presentation have been provided or primarily sourced by third parties and have not been independently verified or audited by Coatue. While we believe the sources providing company information are generally reliable, Coatue makes no representation as to the accuracy or reliability of such information. Third Party Information & Market Data