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The Mobile Gaming Mess
The document discusses the conflicting state of the mobile gaming market in 2013. It notes different predictions for revenue, user numbers, and valuations from various analysts and companies. It also covers metrics, problems, and trends in the mobile gaming industry, including a shift from casual to mid-core and core games, as well as challenges around user acquisition and app discovery.
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The Mobile Gaming Mess
- 1. The Mobile GamingMarket Mess: Who to believe in 2013?! @benjaminjoffe | GMGC 2013
- 3. Geography 1. China mostly 2. US mostly 3. Mix or Other
- 4. How is your company? 1. Very profitable 2. Around breakeven 3. Not breaking even yet
- 7. I spent most of my working life (11 years) overseas, especially in Japan, China, South Korea and USA. My cultural DNA has become rather complex. 13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"
- 8.
- 9. • 150+ talks & 500,000+ views on SlideShare Speaker"
- 10. Mentor @ StartupAccelerators"
- 11. Angel Investor! 1. Gengo (JP) 2. TokyoOtakuMode (JP) 3. Cmune (CN) 4. TwitMusic (PH) 5. PayrollHero (PH) 6. StoryPanda (CA) 7. CuriousHat (US) 8. YoGoMe (MX) 9. TenderTree (US) 10. SmartBites (US) Funded! Funded! Funded! Funded! Funded!
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- 15. Games.com Predic`ons • Big Ktles – Temple Run – The Walking Dead • SubscripKon model • Kids games – Educa`onal, – Based on books, movies, TV shows
- 17. 1.5 million ac`va`ons per day 1 billion by end 2013 Why am I looking down?
- 20. Market Figures! “I’m bored.What could I play?”
- 21. $195m revenue, 45%toys" $9B Valuation?"
- 22. $2.4m / day?" $770mValuation?"
- 23. $2m / day?TV ads" $10B Market Cap"
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- 28. Market Caps • GREE $4.0B • DENA $4.1B • Gungho $10.4B • Zynga $2.5B • EA $5.39B • Ac`vision Blizzard $16.91B
- 29. Smaller guys • Korea – Gamevil $514 million – Come2US $458 million • Japan – Ateam $280 million – Drecom $270 million – Crooz $265 million – Klab $187 million – Enish $124 million – Voltage $50 million – Cave $24 million – Axel Mark $24 million $1B $1.2B
- 30. Value Crea`on in Mobile Gaming • Japan $20 billion • Korea $1 billion • Europe $10 billion • US ? • China ?
- 31. M&As (for memory) • NGMOGO $303 million DeNA (2010) • OpenFeint $103 million GREE (2011) • Funzio $210 million GREE (2012) • Pokelabo $170 million GREE (2012) • OMGPOP $180 million Zynga (2012) • GungHo $265 million* Sojbank (2013) = $1.2B
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- 33. Other guys • Temple Run • Gameloj • Cut the Rope • Talking Tom Cat • Many, many, many others
- 34. Billion-‐dollar mobile genres? • So far all casual & mid-‐core • Console / PC $1B categories? – Almost untouched on mobile & tablets – Shooters, Racing, Sports, Music & Dance
- 35. 2011 2012 2013 Casual Mid-‐Core Core
- 36. Metrics! “At least it’snot meat”
- 37. Old Metrics • Registered users • MAU • DAU • ARPU • ARPPU
- 38. New Metrics • Quality DAU (QDAU) • 1, 2, 7, 30 days Reten`on • Conversion to paying • LTV • Number of Game Sessions • ROI vs UA
- 39. Problems • App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings
- 40. Problems • App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings • CPI – How far in the future are you front-‐running revenue?
- 41. But don’t forget! • Onboarding flow • Sense of progress • Connec`on • FUN
- 42. Communication or Entertainment?! “Iwish I hadn’t used SnapChat”
- 45. Messaging Apps = New Discovery Channel?
- 48. Thanks! 谢谢大家！ benjamin@plus8star.com