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How I stopped worrying about the future, and got busy inventing it
The document discusses trends in marketing and the future of the agency model. It notes that the pace of technological change has accelerated dramatically in recent decades, with new communication channels like mobile internet and social media disrupting traditional advertising models. This has led to an abundance of choices for consumers but also a scarcity of attention. The presentation argues that for marketing to be successful today, it must ignite networks of consumers connected by shared interests, purposes, social interactions and earned media, rather than relying solely on paid advertising or owned websites.
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How I stopped worrying about the future, and got busy inventing it
- 1. HOW I STOPPEDWORRYING ABOUT THE FUTURE AND INSTEAD GOT BUSY INVENTING IT @ Deutsch LA
- 2. AHOY! Since so muchof my talk was, well, me talking, I’ve included sticky notes like this throughout my presentation to add the details the deck is missing. Thanks for coming and thanks for reading. Find me online at: WHATCONSUMESME.COM TWITTER.COM/BUD_CADDELL 2
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- 4. WHAT I KNOWABOUT YOUR INTEREST IN LEARNING ... 4
- 5. WHAT TRENDS ARESHAPING THE CREATIVE INDUSTRY? 15 11.25 7.5 3.75 0 Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 5
- 6. HOW DO IGET TO BETTER CREATIVE IDEAS? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 6
- 7. HOW DO ITEST MY IDEAS BEFORE LAUNCHING THEM? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 7
- 8. WHAT’S THE FUTUREHOLD FOR THE AGENCY MODEL? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 8
- 9. HOW HAVE MARKETINGCHANNELS EXPLODED? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 9
- 10. HOW DO YOUMAP A BUSINESS MODEL? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 10
- 11. HOW DO YOUBUILD YOUR PERSONAL BRAND ONLINE? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 11
- 12. HOW CAN DIGITALSOLVE A BUSINESS PROBLEM? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 12
- 13. WHAT’S A MODERNCREATIVE PROCESS LOOK LIKE? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 13
- 14. WHY ARE LOLCATSSO POPULAR? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 14
- 15. WHY DID THEECONOMY COLLAPSE? Not at all Interested Neutral Somewhat Interested Very Interested 15
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- 18. • FIND SOMEONEYOU DON’T KNOW. • TELL THEM ABOUT YOUR FAVORITE TV SHOW. • LISTEN TO THEIRS. 18
- 19. • FIND SOMEONEYOU DON’T KNOW. • TALK ABOUT THE COLOR OF THE SKY. • NO, REALLY. 19
- 20. ASY MMETRY Conversations arean exchange of ideas. That exchange works better when the information being passed along is asymmetrical - where I know one piece of the puzzle and you know another. New ideas inherently make you more interesting. 20
- 21. Try watching this withouthaving the urge to tell everyone you know. 21
- 22. We engineered thisvideo for asymmetry. We removed enough details in the costumes so that there would people who knew which dogs were characters and people who didn’t know. Asymmetry also equals repeat views. 22
- 23. NEW IDEAS (realized) MAKEYOU MORE INTERESTING. 23
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- 25. Hyundai Assurance, what GarethKay calls “ idea that’s an advertised, not an advertising idea.” 25
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- 27. Checkout at the grocerystore with Hellman’s in your cart and you’ll get a recipe printed right on your receipt. 27
- 28. If you can’tbring people to your store, bring your store to people. Tesco. 28
- 29. Classic asymmetry. There’s the fashion followersand the fashion makers. 29
- 30. YOU. The only thingI know about building a personal brand is to continually try out weird, new ideas. 30
- 31. Like pretending to bea madeup character of a fictional TV show (Mad Men) using Twitter. 31
- 32. Or painting a popularinternet meme and selling it on eBay for $1,000. 32
- 33. OR build areal-life LIKE sign that lights up for every Facebook Like we get on our website. 33
- 34. Or take acrazy notion of re-inventing our industry and turn it into a brand new service offering 34
- 35. On that note, let’s talk about where our jobs are heading. TODAY & TOMORROW 35
- 36. THE PACE OFCHANGE IS MIND BOGGLING YE A RS TO R EA CH 50% H OU SE HOLD ADO PT IO N, S O URCE: ARGO NNE N AT IO NA L L A B O R A TO R Y M O BI L E I NT ER NET C OMPUT ER COL OR TV T E LE P HO NE YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 Y R 40 Y R 50 Y R 60 Y R 70 36
- 37. THE TRADITIONAL ADMODEL W HE N W E H A D TIM E TO DRIN K SCO TCH AT 11 AM PRINT TV RADIO 37
- 38. THE MICROSITE MODEL,CIRCA 2005-8 W HE N W E WE R E TH E KIN GS OF FLA SHT URBAT IO N PRINT EMAIL TV BANNERS MICRO-SITE RADIO SEARCH NON-TRAD 38
- 39. THE 2011 MARKETINGECOSYSTEM W HE N W E A LL BE CA M E SOCIA L ME DIA DO UCHEBAGS SOCIAL RADIO EMAIL CORPORATE BANNERS DOT-COM TV MICRO-SITE RETAIL DIGITAL OOH MOBILE PRINT SEARCH we help our clients rethink NON-TRAD EVENTS the marketing ecosystem. starting with a realization that these are more than boxes that need filling. 39
- 40. But let’s notforget what the world looks like to a consumer these days. An abundance of choice means a scarcity of attention. Also, what Rob Walker calls the “pretty good problem” - it’s getting harder and harder for products to breakthrough. 40
- 41. 80 % 80% of categories are seen as homogenous by consumers. 41
- 42. 10 % percent of ads are seen as different 42
- 43. 4 % 4% seen as successful in direct marketing 43
- 44. .05 % .05% click through seen as success in banner ads let’s not beat this up too much. 44
- 45. 75 meanwhile ... theaverage lifespan of a fortune 500 company in 1937 45
- 46. 5 the average lifespan of a fortune 500 company today something has to be done about this. / when a crisis is this drastic, only one thing can be done! 46
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- 48. THE 2012 MEANINGECOSYSTEM EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA SOCIAL BEHAVIOR PROFITS ME PAID MEDIA GRAPH PRODUCTS OWNED MEDIA & SERVICES INTERESTS 48
- 49. THE 2012 MEANINGECOSYSTEM EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA SOCIAL BEHAVIOR PROFITS ME PAID MEDIA GRAPH PRODUCTS OWNED MEDIA & SERVICES INTERESTS THIS PROBABLY LOOKS INSANELY COMPLEX. BECAUSE IT IS. BUT LET’S 49 TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ..
- 50. THE 2012 MEANINGECOSYSTEM EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS FIRST. PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA Instead of diving head first into how you’ll fill SOCIAL buckets, we media should concentrate on telling a BEHAVIOR coherent brand story across PROFITS everything we ME starting do, PAID MEDIA with our purpose (beyond profits), and how our products and our revenue support that purpose. Then,GRAPHshould use we PRODUCTS & SERVICES media to amplify that message. INTERESTS OWNED MEDIA 50
- 51. THE 2012 MEANINGECOSYSTEM EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS And as we plan to reach consumers, we need to be PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA paying more attention than SOCIAL ever to the shared interests which bind our consumers to BEHAVIOR their friends. That’s how we’ll engineer ourPROFITS to have message ME PAID MEDIA the best chance at being spread. We also have to start obser ving people’s behaviors GRAPH more closely, and not in PRODUCTS aggregate, & SERVICES get up we have to INTERESTS OWNED MEDIA close and truly personal. 51
- 52. Doing all ofthese things better will increase our odds for success. But.... 52
- 53. 90 % 90% of strategic plans are never realized. i like to think that means 90% of time spent in powerpoint is meaningless. 53
- 54. 70 % 70% of change plans fail, our organizations are often too silo’d and fragmented to turn on a dime. 54
- 55. WELCOME TO THE ERAOF PROBLEMS YOU CAN’T STRATEGIZE YOUR WAY OUT OF. 55
- 56. don’t get mewrong, there is still a place for strategy in this world. a huge place. especially when we have the time and attention to methodically plan. 56
- 57. but even themost simple plans can and often go awry when they meet the real world. and it reminds me of something like that. this is also the example i like to use when clients ask for a viral video. Search youtube for “plinko price is right” 57
- 58. in reaction tothat, you see this meme exploding in culture right now. it sounds AWESOME DOESN’T IT?! 58
- 59. this one’s alsovery popular. especially in our biz. 59
- 60. MIDDLE WE’LL DO PARTSOF THIS EXERCISE TOGETHER. EXERCISE! DON’T WORRY, THIS ONE DOESN’T REQUIRE MUCH EMPATHY. 60
- 61. YOUR BRIEF: WHAT CANEVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE AN EVENT HAS AN IMPACT LONG AFTER THE DAY IS OVER? 61
- 62. This is ourinvention filter, a process we use to generate better ideas. Serves User Needs Nudges Ignites the Brand Culture 62
- 63. WHAT CAN EVENTORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT? S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ... Serves User Needs What are attendees trying to accomplish by coming? What are the barriers? What’s broken? What technologies can help? What solutions are being tried in other industries or countries to solve similar problems? 63
- 64. WHAT CAN EVENTORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT? S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ... Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand What are attendees trying to How does the business work? accomplish by coming? What forces keep them from What are the barriers? growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What’s broken? What factors are most What technologies can help? important to attendees when choosing an event? What solutions are being tried in other industries or Where is the industry countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the problems? pushing, and is the brand leading or following? 64
- 65. WHAT CAN EVENTORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT? S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ... Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture What are attendees trying to How does the business work? What types of content do accomplish by coming? attendees of these events What forces keep them from share with each other? What are the barriers? growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What are common What’s broken? conventions being used by What factors are most competitors in their What technologies can help? important to attendees when marketing? choosing an event? What solutions are being What are the commonly held tried in other industries or Where is the industry beliefs and behaviors of your countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the customers? problems? pushing, and is the brand leading or following? Are they in contradiction? 65
- 66. IDEATE! 66
- 67. SHARE! 67
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- 69. did that feelgood?! now, i’m gonna burst your bubble. 69
- 70. 3,000 According toone source, it can take upwards of 3000 raw ideas to get to 1 commercially successful product. 70
- 71. % .033 that is, infact, worse success rates than a banner ad. BUT. DOING STUFF IS INESCAPABLE. 71
- 72. IN THE NETWORKERA, THE LAST SEMBLANCE OF CONTROL RESTS IN THE HANDS OF THE PLATFORM BUILDERS. 72
- 73. “PROGRAM OR BE PROGRAMMED.” – DOUGLAS RUSHKOFF 73
- 74. “ THE BESTWAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO INVENT IT.” – ALAN KAY 74
- 75. “ DISRUPT YOURSELF BEFORE SOMEONE DOES IT FOR YOU.” – GOOGLE 75
- 76. % .033 but still.there’s this. 76
- 77. START WITH MOREIDEAS. START WITH BETTER IDEAS. LEARN (FAIL) FASTER. LEARN (FAIL) SAFER. 77
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- 79. Napkin Labs 79
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- 81. Our own internaltool (alpha) to get more creativity out of the organization. 81
- 82. START WITH MOREIDEAS. START WITH BETTER IDEAS. LEARN (FAIL) FASTER. LEARN (FAIL) SAFER. 82
- 83. Serves User Needs Nudges Ignites the Brand Culture 83
- 84. look for userhacks, fix what’s broken. 84
- 85. A question every singleorganization should be asking right now, “How can we bring our customers together to help one another?” 85
- 86. Fourth Amendment Wear showsus how to ride a moment in culture. 86
- 87. START WITH MOREIDEAS. START WITH BETTER IDEAS. LEARN (FAIL) FASTER. LEARN (FAIL) SAFER. 87
- 88. “Smoke Testing” the titleand cover of this book were developed through using adwords. 88
- 89. Dropbox was ademo video before it was a full service. Find “earlyvangelists” and give them something to spread. 89
- 90. we pitched thiswith a vocal prototype 90
- 91. When we re-builtour own site, the team created a bunch of functional prototypes within a few days. 91
- 92. START WITH MOREIDEAS. START WITH BETTER IDEAS. LEARN (FAIL) FASTER. LEARN (FAIL) SAFER. 92
- 93. failure is inevitable. wejust have to make sure we can get up after we’ve fallen down. 93
- 94. For ad folk,we have to stop chasing the white rabbit of the big idea into the rabbit hole of the big execution. We should be cleverly slicing budgets into many opportunities for success. A NETWORK OF VS ONE BIG BET SMALL BETS 94
- 95. chris rock doesn’ttest jokes during his HBO special. He spends 6 months popping into tiny clubs with a notebook and pen, bombing continuously. 95
- 96. still the goldstandard. maybe doing all of these steps well. we suck at this one. maybe because it requires brands to either build or co-opt safe spaces. 96
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- 98. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! (THE CAR INSURANCE MODEL) 98
- 99. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L PAYOUTS RISKS PREMIUMS This is called a causal loop diagram. There is a lot of content online about how to get good at mapping systems. CUSTOMERS These here are called ‘s tocks,’ they’re the pools of stuff that insurance companies accrue. 99
- 100. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L S PAYOUTS S RISKS PREMIUMS O O We map these stocks with the flows CUSTOMERS which connect them. ‘S’ means same, as in they move in the same direction, ‘O’ means opposite. So, for example, if an insurance company has to payout more money, it’s likely that they will also have to raise their premiums, which will then in turn cause them to lose customers to their competitors. 100
- 101. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L S PAYOUTS S RISKS PREMIUMS O O Shitty insurance CUSTOMERS companies focus on lowering payouts through less than honest tactics. 101
- 102. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L S PAYOUTS S RISKS PREMIUMS O O CUSTOMERS Instead, let’s focus on these t wo stocks. 102
- 103. LET’S HACK ABUSINESS MODEL! T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L S PAYOUTS S LOWER THE RISKS OF RISKS PREMIUMS CURRENT CUSTOMERS O O CUSTOMERS ATTRACT SAFER DRIVERS 103
- 104. Serves User Needs Nudges Ignites the Brand Culture 104
- 105. ATTRACT LESS RISKYCUSTOMERS AND HELP EVERYONE REDUCE THEIR RISKS WHILE DRIVING S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ... Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture What are drivers trying to How does the business work? What kind of content are accomplish while driving? people already sharing What forces keep them from around insurance? What are the barriers? growing and what forces keep them from shrinking? What are common What’s broken? conventions being used by What factors are most competitors in their What technologies can help? important to drivers when marketing? choosing an insurance? What solutions are being What are the commonly held tried in other industries or Where is the industry beliefs and behaviors of your countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the customers? problems? pushing, and is the brand leading or following? Are they in contradiction? 105
- 106. IDEATE! 106
- 107. SHARE! 107
- 108. W H ATWE ’ R E F OCUS IN G ON . .. W H AT’ S A CTUA L L Y OUT TH E R E ... 108
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