Global Strategy Assignment

Global Strategy Assignment

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  A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF THE VIRGIN GROUP James Bowyer BA (Hons) Business
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  1 | P a ge CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 Introduction 3 Corporate Strategy 3 Business Strategy 4 Internal Analysis 4 Valuable 4 Rare 5 Imperfectly Imitable 5 Non Substitutable 5 Advantage 6 External Analysis 6 Threat of New Entrants 6 Power of Buyers 7 Threat of Substitute Products 7 Power of Suppliers 7 Intensity of Rivalry 8 Complimentary Products (6th Force) 8 Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) 8 Evaluation 9 Strengths 9 Weaknesses 9 Opportunities 10 Threats 10 Conclusion 10 Recommendations 10 References 12 Appendix 15
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  2 | P a ge EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report gives an analysis, evaluation and recommendations for the corporate strategy of Virgin Group and the internal and external strategy of Virgin Atlantic. The research found that the airline industry is incredibly difficult to operate profitably in, due to powerful suppliers and intense rivalry between firms. It also found that the Virgin brand is a powerful tool in creating a competitive advantage. The evaluation was that Virgin Atlantic are competing well inside such a competitive industry but could do more to maximise their opportunities. Recommendations were: • To exploit the expanding airline market, especially in quickly growing markets • To focus on the future, in particular bio fuel production which, given the rapidly expanding market, could soon become more valuable than current fossil fuels This report also has some limitations: • The full range of factors influencing both external and internal analysis are limited due to word count constraints • The Virgin Group is an incredibly complex mix of investments and royalty payments for the brand name so for the purposes of the Corporate Analysis this has been simplified
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  3 | P a ge INTRODUCTION Virgin Atlantic was founded in 1984 by Richard Branson with the aim of providing “a high quality, value for money airline”. (Virgin.com, no date, a) Since then Virgin Atlantic has expanded its fleet to 39 aircraft, transported 53million people around the globe and currently employs around 9000 people worldwide (Virgin.com, no date, b). In 2000 49% of Virgin Atlantic was bought by Singapore Airlines for £600million (Neville, 2012) then in 2014 Delta Airlines bought the 49% stake off Singapore Airlines for £224million (Topham, 2013). However the 51% majority stake is still owned by Virgin group. This report will analyse the corporate strategy of Virgin Group and the business strategy of Virgin Atlantic. It will then summarise the information gathered from this analysis and be combined to form an evaluation of both the corporate and business level strategies. It will then conclude by deciding whether the strategy of Virgin Atlantic is effective and provide recommendations. CORPORATE STRATEGY Corporate Strategy describes the medium to long term decisions made by an organisation and ultimately ‘makes fundamental decisions about the future direction of an organisation’ (Lynch & Smith, 2005). FIGURE 1 - VIRGIN GROUP STRUCTURE (GORDON, 2014)
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  4 | P a ge Virgin Group is involved in around 400 operations (Wachman, 2012). The group has been described as being ‘a structure of loosely linked, autonomous units run by self- managed teams that use a common name.’ (Johnson et al, 2008) demonstrated by figure 1. As a result of this, the Virgin Group does not run all of the businesses within Virgin Group on a day to day basis. Instead it decides which new businesses to invest in and which should be terminated and where the overall strategy of the business is going. This is done by a group of directors and partners which, until recently, also included Sir Richard Branson. An example of managing these business units is when they sold Virgin Records for £510 million in 1992 to finance the struggling Virgin Atlantic (Telegraph, 2014). Therefore the Virgin Group itself is where strategy is formed, between the various directors and not just from Richard Branson (Gordon, 2014). By allowing business units to be autonomous it enables them to be agile in their market and unaffected by other areas of the organisation. An example of such is the recent Virgin Galactic crash (BBC News, 2014) having no effect on Virgin Trains, Virgin Atlantic or any other Virgin business (Johnson et al, 2008). This is important in an organisation as large as Virgin Group because if Virgin Atlantic for example needed to change something quickly but had to go back all the way to Sir Richard Branson the process could take months instead of days. This all indicates that Virgin’s businesses are run as portfolios. Portfolios are defined by Hedley as developing different strategic objectives (Hedley, 1977) clearly allowing the above to take place. This is opposed to a synergy strategy where all business units are grouped around a common core competence (De Wit and Meyer, 2014), with each one impacting the other. BUSINESS STRATEGY INTERNAL ANALYSIS To analyse the internal business strategy of Virgin Atlantic Barney’s VRIN framework (Barney, 1991) will be used. The reasoning behind using VRIN is because a non- substitutable product is a large part of Virgin Atlantic’s competitive advantage, therefore it cannot be ignored. Similarly, VRIN is well suited to a service product so is more appropriate for Virgin Atlantic. VALUABLE Customer service has been a valuable resource for Virgin Atlantic since they were founded (Virgin, 2015, c). Whether it be being the first to put personal television screens in every seat or the first to offer a premium economy service, Virgin have always been at the forefront. This, as Mintel research shows, is a top priority for long haul customers meaning Virgin Atlantic create a competitive advantage for themselves (Mintel, 2014). Furthermore, because they fly to a smaller number of destinations but on high traffic routes (Virgin, no date, d), means they can offer a high quality experience
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  5 | P a ge at a lower price for consumers due to guaranteed flight capacity. Therefore, they have a premium service at a competitive price. RARE Virgin Atlantic’s rarest resource is their cabin crew. The cabin crew is more rare than valuable because the features such as comfy seats, premium economy and personal television screens can be replicated by other firms. However, Virgin Atlantic’s cabin crew is something that is core to their success over others. As Richard Branson himself says ‘Most airlines now have similar seats, food, planes and entertainment – our advantage is the people who are proud to work for us’ (Branson, 2014). This was a strategy from the initial creation of Virgin Atlantic where they decided to employ 95% of cabin crew staff with no experience of flying on other airlines in order to ensure a fresh and different approach (Branson, 2014). IMPERFECTLY IMITABLE One major resource that belongs to Virgin Atlantic is the Virgin brand name itself. Given its scale, history and unique leader, the Virgin brand image is virtually impossible to copy. Proof of the Virgin brand reputation can be found in research showing the Virgin brand is associated with words such as ‘fun’, ‘innovative’, ‘daring’ and ‘successful’ (Johnson et al., 2008). This enables Virgin Atlantic to utilise the emotions synonymous with the Virgin brand to create a service unique only to them. Whilst this feature of Virgin Atlantic was possibly more relevant in the early years of the airline, customers are still influenced by it because of what Barney states are ‘unique historical conditions’ (Barney, 1991, 107). By this, Barney implies that because a business created a ‘unique and valuable’ culture during the early stages of its creation it will have an ‘imperfectly inimitable advantage’ over other firms (Barney, 1991, 108) NON SUBSTITUTABLE As previously mentioned, being non-substitutable itself is a vital resource for Virgin Atlantic. The only other realistic way of reaching the majority of destinations is via commercial cruise ship which takes a minimum of seven days to cross the Atlantic Ocean (Cunard, 2015). Hence an airplane is the only practical option for those with any reasonable time constraints.
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  6 | P a ge ADVANTAGE Using this information and the table above it is apparent that Virgin Atlantic has a sustainable competitive advantage. In particular, the Virgin brand name offers a sustainable advantage as it completes all the VRIN qualities. It is also virtually impossible for any other company to copy this exactly and as nobody has yet done so it offers further support to the brands sustainable advantage. However, Teece (1997) believes it is also important to observe external competitive circumstances to gain a full understanding of a firm’s competitive advantage which will now be analysed. EXTERNAL ANALYSIS In order to analyse the external envorinment of Virgin Atlantic, Porter’s updated Five Forces Model (2008) will be used along with Brandenburger and Nalebuff’s (1997) sixth force. The five forces model is being used because it enables us to gain a comprehensive image of an industry, helping companies look past their competitors (Porter, 2008) and help understand whether an industry is attractive to those companies involved. THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS Porter (2008) states that threat of new entrants is high in the airline industry. However, in practice it is not so simple. One reason is capital resources (Porter, 2008). To sustain an airline into become a significant competitor requires vast amounts of capital, demonstrated by Virgin Group having to sell Virgin Records to pour £510 million into Virgin Atlantic (Telegraph, 2014). Closly linked to this is the significant disadvantage new entrants have with access to distibution channels (Porter, 2008). Research by Harteveldt (2012) has shown that the average consumer will visit 22 websites before booking a flight. Given that companies pay to be on comparison sites (moneysupermarket.com, 2009) or sell through travel agents (Porter, 2008) it is hard for new companies to consistently establish themselves in the consumers conscience. Therefore, in the long term it is highly unlikely a new airline will be able to challenge Valuable • Customer Service • One of the world’s youngest fleet of aircraft • Cabin Crew • Flying experience, high quality at low cost • Virgin Brand Rare • Heathrow slots • Cabin Crew • Virgin Brand Imperfectly imitable • Virgin Brand • Unique historical conditions of Virgin Atlantic vs British Airways • Cabin Crew Non Substitutable • No other practical way of getting to many of the destinations • Virgin Brand
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  7 | P a ge incumbents in the industry. Hence, barriers to entry are high and consequently threat of new entrants is low - medium. POWER OF BUYERS Buyers (customers) hold a vast amount of power within the airline industry due to the price war they have created between airlines (Porter, 2008). Porter suggests that buyers are fickle and have very little brand loyalty, almost always choosing an airline exclusively on price. Harteveldt (2012) suggests the modern air traveller is ‘brand- agnostic’ and ‘price-focused’, forcing airlines to lower their prices as much as physically possible. Porter (2008) and Harteveldt (2012) also suggest that there is little brand loyalty, meaning even an excellent service cannot guarantee repeat custom. Power of buyers is therefore high. THREAT OF SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS Substitute products are divided in the airline industry. Short-haul operators compete with substitute methods of transport such as trains or cars (Trend, 2011). Long-haul operators however are competiting against technology such as video conferencing and conference calls because of the large distances involved (Porter, 2008). Denstadli (2004) however, found that the substitution rate for video conferencing over air travel was 2.5-3.5% so the effect is not considered a serious threat to airlines and will always be supplementary to personal contact. These findings are also endorsed by Roy and Filiatrault (1998) who estimated conference calls would only reach a substitution rate of 3.6%-8.6%. The threat of substitute products is therefore high if the company is a short haul opperator but low if the company flies long haul. POWER OF SUPPLIERS In the airline industry there are only two large suppliers of aircraft in Boeing and Airbus (Economist, 2014) with both having different strategies and therefore types of plane. The Airbus A380 aims to carry as many passengers as possible long distances where as Boeing’s 787 aims to travel shorter distances quickly (Topham, 2013). Consequently, airlines are technically limited to one choice of aircraft depending on their own strategy. Porter (2008) also states that suppliers of aircraft engines and airport gates are all incredibly powerful, taking a large percentage of the profits. Moreover, there are only a few fuel suppliers to airlines (Ireland et al. 2008), again meaning airlines have little say over the price of a vital resource to them, fuel costs account for 30% of airline expenses (NPR, 2015). Given these circumstances supplier power is high in the airline industry.
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  8 | P a ge INTENSITY OF RIVALRY In the airline industry rivalry is almost exclusively based on price which can be especially destructive to profitability (Porter, 2008). It is destructive because it encourages customers to ignore additional product features and focus on price (Porter, 2008), potentially rendering any attempt at gaining a competitve advantage useless. Price is so important that since the 1980’s price has decreasced by 2.5% on average per annum (Papatheodorou, 2006) The reason rivalry is based on price is because firms are almost identical and market growth is slow (Porter, 2008), 6% per year in the airline industry (Papatheodorou, 2006). However, whilst intense rivalry has limited profitability in the airline industry, it can also be beneficial to performance (McManners, 2014). For example it can drive innovation, such as firms purchasing the new Boeing 787 which uses 20%-30% less fuel than similar sized planes (Boeing, 2015). This could prove crucial when customers are choosing between rivals on cost. Therefore rivalry inside the airline industry is incredibly intense. COMPLIMENTARY PRODUCTS (6TH FORCE) Complentary products, whislt not part of Porter’s five forces, are an important part of the airline industry. A complentary product is one which means customers value your product when it is coupled with the one in question (Brandenburger and Nalebuff, 1997). The main complementary product in question is the air traffic control service. It is not a supplier, as Porter believes it should be, because in theory an airline could quite easily operate a flight to and from a destination without the aid of air traffic control were there no other planes in the sky. However due to regulations they must use air traffic control because without it they wouldn’t be allowed to fly and customers would refuse to fly without it. Air traffic control is so important to mention because of the effect it can have on airlines when it is not active (Philipson & Haenan, 2014). CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY (CSR) As an industry, aviation is under a lot of pressure surrounding CSR, especially in the form of fuel emissions. According to ATAG (2015) the aviation industry makes up around 2% of all human induced carbon dioxide. However Clark (2010) argues that in developed countries it could be more like 13%-15% due to the economic balance of airline customers. Furthermore, Borken-Kleefeld et al. (2010) states that in the short term airlines have the biggest effect on the environment over any other transport and given the expected rise in airline traffic over the next few years this is likely to be magnified. Another issue for airlines is the amount of fuel remaining. A study by Nygren et. al, (2009) concluded that despite the vast increase in airplane fuel efficiency in recent years, 70% more so than the 1960’s, the expected 5% per annum increase of air traffic is not realistic given the amount of fuel remaining and already being outputted by refineries. Therefore, airlines must invest in biofuels to simply exist in the future, never mind be competitive. To try and combat these issues Virgin Atlantic have taken several steps to safeguard themselves. Firstly, as shown on page 8, they have invested in a new fleet of aircraft
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  9 | P a ge designed to be 20%-30% more fuel efficient than their current ones. Virgin is also at the forefront of the industry in trying to find a viable solution to fossil fuels. In 2008 they flew from Heathrow to Amsterdam with one engine running on biofuels, the first commercial plane ever to do so (Marsh, 2008). They are also investing in and working heavily with LanzaTech to develop low CO2 and CO2 free fuels (Virgin.com, 2013, e). Their commitment to this issue has been externally recognised with the Sustainable Biofuels Awards and The Observer Ethical Awards in 2013. Therefore, Virgin Atlantic can be considered an environmentally conscious company however until they run aircraft on bio fuels the effectiveness of their schemes are limited. EVALUATION STRENGTHS Virgin Atlantic’s biggest strength is its cabin crew. As shown on page 5 this is what separates Virgin Atlantic from its competitors in the modern era and has been a core part of their thinking since the business’s conception. This strategy optimises their strengths because as shown on page 4 the business also has excellent customer service and one of the world’s youngest fleets of aircraft, focusing their strategy on a premium service at a competitive price. WEAKNESSES A concern and weakness for Virgin Atlantic is their current range of destinations. As mentioned on page 5 they only fly to a small number of destinations so their target customer is naturally limited. However the firm plays down this weakness well by flying high traffic routes meaning the planes are usually full. Strengths • Virgin brand • New airplanes • Cabin Crew • Heathrow slots Opportunities • Expanding market • No substitutes for long haul travel • Bio fuel knowledge • Low threat of new entrants Weaknesses • Only fly to a small number of destinations • Reliant on ‘unique historical conditions’ • Too dependent on Virgin Brand Threats • Rising fuel costs • Fuel running out • Fierce competition • Alliances of other airlines • Air Traffic Control • Power of suppliers
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  10 | P a ge OPPORTUNITIES Virgin Atlantic’s biggest opportunities are its domination of the market through a lack of substitutes, the expanding airline market and the low threat of new entrants as mentioned on pages 6 and 7 in the five forces analysis. However it would appear that Virgin Atlantic does not exploit their opportunities particularly well. For example, whilst they have bought many new aircraft they are simply to replace the older ones rather than exploiting the expanding market. A potential opportunity is working towards creating biofuels; however as they are working in tandem with other companies it is unlikely Virgin Atlantic will have exclusive use of them. Therefore Virgin Atlantic could capitalise on their opportunities better. THREATS Virgin Atlantic face many threats as a business however it reduces these threats well. As noted on page 8 rising fuel costs and diminishing fuel supplies are dealt with by working to create bio fuels. Whilst fierce competition can’t be reduced, Virgin Atlantic have limited the effects of it by creating a strategy which keeps prices low and also offers the desired extra service on long haul flights. Therefore Virgin Atlantic’s strategy works well to reduce external threats. It is also important to note here that the business strategy matches the corporate strategy as Virgin Atlantic have been able to adjust quickly to competitors, in particular their prices because they are autonomous in their leadership. CONCLUSION As mentioned in the introduction it must now be decided whether Virgin Atlantic’s strategy is effective. Virgin Atlantic is excellent at managing their internal strategies, turning weaknesses into strengths and using their strengths to change the industry around them with regards to customer service. However the airline industry is one of the least profitable in the world, in the most part due to external factors. With the exception of the threat of new entrants, all aspects of the Porters five forces are unfavourable in the airline industry making it incredibly hard for a business to be profitable. It must be said that Virgin Atlantic do not maximise their opportunities very well but the threats almost make this impossible. Extremely powerful suppliers of fuel, planes and airport gates mean it is almost impossible to generate an advantage over other competitors in this way. Therefore the effectiveness of Virgin Atlantic’s strategy is complex. It is effective in making the business as strong as possible internally however the success of this strategy is greatly constrained by external factors in the industry, many of which are out of Virgin Atlantic’s control. RECOMMENDATIONS Given that Virgin Atlantic has created a good internal strategy recommendations must focus around opportunities. One potential opportunity is to utilise the consistently expanding airline market and open new flights to the most rapidly expanding markets.
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  11 | P a ge It is evident however with the failure of Little Red that Virgin Atlantic should focus on long haul flights. Another recommendation is to expand into bio fuel research independently. Since they already have some grounding in the area it would be possible for them to create their own fuel and become a supplier to airlines in the future, generating themselves the power suppliers currently possess.
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  12 | P a ge REFERENCES Air Transport Action Group (no date) Facts & Figures. [Online] [Accessed on 31st January 2015] Barney, J. (1991) ‘Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage.’ Journal of Management, 17(1) pp. 99-120. BBC. (2014) Virgin Galactic spacecraft kills pilot. [Online] [Accessed on 21st January 2015] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29857182 Boeing (no date) Boeing 787 Dreamliner Provides New Solutions for Airlines, Passengers. [Online] [Accessed 29th January] Borken-Kleefeld, J., Berntsen, T., & Fuglestvedt, J. (2010) ‘Specific climate impact of passenger and freight transport.’ Environmental science & technology, 44 (15) pp. 5700- 5706. Branson, S. (2014) ‘Virgin Atlantic: 30 years of fun, flying and competition’ The Telegraph. [Online] 21st June. [Accessed on 24th January 2015] Calder, S. (2014) ‘Richard Branson’s Little Red airline to fold.’ The Independent [Online] 6th October [Accessed on 5th February 2015] Capelouto, S. (2015) With Oil Prices So Low, What’s That Fuel Surcharge For, Exactly? [Online] [Accessed on 28th January 2015] Clark, D. (2010) ‘The surprisingly complex truth about planes and climate change’. The Guardian. [Online] 9th September. [Accessed on 2nd February 2015] Cunard. (No date)Transatlantic Cruises 2015 & 2016. [Online] [Accessed on 24th January 2015] http://www.cunard.co.uk/cruise-types/transatlantic-cruises/ De Wit, R. and Meyer, R. (2014). Strategy: An International Perspective. 5th ed., Andover: Cengage Learning EMEA. Denstadli, J. M. (2004) ‘Impacts of videoconferencing on business travel: the Norwegian experience.’ Journal of Air Transport Management, 10(6) pp. 371-376. Economist. (2014) ‘Why airlines make such meagre profits’ The Economist.[Online] 23rd February. [Accessed on 27th January 2015] Gordon, S. (2014) ‘Brand it like Branson.’ Financial Times. [Online] 5th November. [Accessed on 21st January 2015] Hardvard Business Review. 2008. The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy. [Online] [Accessed on 28th January 2015] Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYF2_FBCvXw Harteveldt, H. (2012) The Future of Airline Distribution: A Look Ahead to 2017. Cambridge: Atmosphere Research Group LLC. [Online] [Accessed on 25th January 2015] http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/stb/Documents/future-airline-distribution-report.pdf
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  13 | P a ge Hedley, B. (1977) ‘Strategy and the “Business Portfolio.”’ Long Range Planning, 10 (1) pp. 9-15. Ireland, R. D. Hoskisson, R. Hitt, M. (2008) Understanding Business Strategy: Concepts and Cases. 2nd Ed., Mason: Cengage Learning. Johnson, G. Scholes, K. Whittington, R. (2008) Exploring Corporate Strategy. 8th Ed., Essex: Prentice Hall Financial Times. Lynch, R. L & Smith J. R. (2005) Corporate Strategy. 4th ed., Harlow, England; Financial Times/Prentice Hall, 2006. P. 2 Marsh, G. (2008) ‘Biofuels: aviation alternative?.’ Renewable Energy Focus, 9 (4) pp. 48- 51. McManners, P. (2014) Corporate Strategy in the Age of Responsibility. Farmham: Gower Publishing Limited. Mintel. (2014) Long-Haul Holidays: UK. March 2014 [Online] [Accessed on 23rd January 2015] Money Super Market (2009) How do we make our money?. [Online] [Accessed on 25th January 2015] http://www.moneysupermarket.com/newsandcommunity/news/how- do-we-make-our-money_0007335.aspx Nalebuff, B. J., & Brandenburger, A. M. (1997). Co-opetition: Competitive and cooperative business strategies for the digital economy. Strategy & leadership, 25 (6) pp. 28-33. Neville, S. (2012) ‘Delta bids for Singapore Airlines’ stake in Virgin Atlantic.’ The Guardian. [Online] 2nd December. [Accessed on 20th January 2015] Nygren, E., Aleklett, K., & Höök, M. (2009) ‘Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios.’ Energy Policy, 37 (10) pp. 4003-4010. Papatheodorou, A. (ed.) (2006) Corporate Rivalry and Market Power: Competition Issues in the Tourism Industry. London: I.B. Tauris & Co. Ltd Philipson, A. Haenen, J. (2014) ‘UK flights disrupted by French air traffic strikes: latest’. The Telegraph. [Online] 24th June. [Accessed on 4th February 2015] Porter, M. E. (2008) ‘The five competitive forces that shape strategy.’ Harvard Business Review, 86 (1) pp. 25-40. Roy, J., & Filiatrault, P. (1998) ‘The impact of new business practices and information technologies on business air travel demand.’ Journal of Air Transport Management, 4 (2) pp. 77-86. Teece, David J., Gary Pisano, and Amy Shuen. (1997) ‘Dynamic capabilities and strategic management.’ Strategic Management Journal, 18 (7) pp. 509-33. Topham, G. (2013) ‘Battle for the future of the skies: Boeing 787 Dreamliner v Airbus A380.’ The Guardian [Online] 29th December. [Accessed on 27th January 2015]
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  14 | P a ge Topham, G. (2013) ‘Delta cleared to complete purchase of 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic.’ The Guardian. [Online] 24th June. [Accessed on 20th January 2015] Trend, N. (2011) ‘Trains or planes? The great European travel test’. The Telegraph. [Online] 24th February. [Accessed on 30th January 2015] Virgin Atlantic. (2013) Sustainability Report 2013. Unknown place of publication: Virgin Atlantic. [Online] [Accessed on 4th February] (e) Virgin Atlantic. (2014) Press Information Kit February 2014. Unknown place of publication: Virgin Atlantic. [Online] [Accessed on 20th January 2015] (b) Virgin. (No date) History. [Online] [Accessed on 20th January 2015] http://www.virgin- atlantic.com/en/gb/allaboutus/ourstory/history.jsp (a) Virgin. (No date) Virgin Atlantic Wins Top Customer Service Award. [Online] [Accessed on 23rd January 2015] http://www.virgin- atlantic.com/en/gb/allaboutus/pressoffice/pressreleases/news/customeraward.jsp (c) Virgin. (No date) Where we fly. [Online] [Accessed on 23rd January 2015] http://www.virgin-atlantic.com/gb/en/ideas-lowestfares/route-map.html (d) Wachman, R. (2012) ‘Virgin brands: What does Richard Branson really own?.’ The Guardian. [Online] 8th January [Accessed on 7th February 2015]
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  15 | P a ge APPENDIX Gordon, S. (2014) ‘Brand it like Branson.’ Financial Times. [Online] 5th November. [Accessed on 21st January 2015] Figure 1 - Virgin Group Structure (Gordon, 2014)