Association between Investment, Production, Export and Import: The Impact of Labor Force Absorption in Indonesia

International Journal of Business and Management Invention
ISSN (Online): 2319 – 8028, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 801X
www.ijbmi.org || Volume 4 Issue 5|| May. 2015 || PP-17-25
www.ijbmi.org 17 | Page
Association between Investment, Production, Export and
Import: The Impact of Labor Force Absorption in Indonesia
Andi Sessu
(Faculty of economics and business UHAMKA Jakarta)
ABSTRACT : This study produced several important findings, namely: (a) trade, especially foreign trade
(exports and imports) and domestic production which increases the expansion of employment opportunities; (b)
economic growth as measured by the growth of production and growth in investment showed an influence on the
improvement of employment opportunities; and (c) Simultaneously, export, import, production and investment
have a significant effect on employment. In connection with this, the Central Government of the Republic of
Indonesia must continue to promote investment, especially sector Agroindustry and other agriculture-based
industries, including fertilizer and pesticide industries. Imports of used clothing and used tires must be stopped
to allow the national industry sector to recover profitable economic capacity. The agricultural sector must still
get attention, especially food crops such as soybean, corn and rice and fruit to strengthen national food
agriculture and agriculture-based industries as well as save on foreign exchange
KEYWORDS : Export, Import, Production, Investment and Labor Absorption
I. INTRODUCTION
The integration of the world economy and trade policy is essential for development, job creation and
poverty alleviation (Trade and Development Commission, UNCTAD, 2013). Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
has been shown to have encouraged local and regional economic growth, especially in developing countries in
Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is to create jobs and alleviate poverty (Tambunan, 2005). The success of the
economic development of a country is characterized by two main things, namely economic growth and poverty
reduction. To alleviate this poverty, require job growth and an increase in income per capita (Jonaidi, 2012;
Susilo, 2013).
Associated with the condition of Indonesia, a major problem faced is the phenomenon of labor surplus
economy, a country which population growth is greater than the growth of their employment. Therefore,
appropriate economic policies implemented in Indonesia are to encourage economic sectors which can
immediately increase employment opportunities. The growth of industrial sector should be encouraged,
especially subsector Agroindustry (agriculture based industries). The development of agriculture-based
industries will contribute double benefits. In addition increasing the added value of agricultural products,
agricultural employment and industrial sector will also increase. Along with it, the income of farmers is
encouraged to increase in the future thus simultaneously reducing poverty.
According to Fei-Ranis models, shifting agricultural labor to the industrial sector took place in three
stages based on the marginal physical product (MPP) and wages which assumed to be constant and exogenously
determined. In the first stage, despite the transfer of power from agricultural sector to industrial sector,
agricultural production will not fall because, agricultural laborers are redundant. In the second stage, the
production of the agricultural sector began to decline because labor MPP had positive start. In the third stage is
the stage of commercialization of the two sectors of the economy. MPP labor becomes higher than the level of
wages. Agricultural producers will maintain its workforce thus each sector seeks to be streamlined. Transfer will
continue to happen if the technological innovation in the agricultural sector can boost labor MPP (Kariyasa,
2006).Based on the ideas that have been put forward, then the following is the distribution of employment by
economic sector:

Association between Investment, Production…
Table 1. Employment by Industry and Status
Employment by Industry 2002 2005 2008 2011 2012
agriculture (%) 44.30 44.00 40.30 35.90 35.20
Manufacturing Industry (%) 13.20 12.70 12.20 13.30 13.90
Trading (%) 19.40 19.10 20.70 21.30 20.90
Services (%) 17.50 18.20 20.20 22.20 22.40
Others (%) 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.30 7.60
T o t a l 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Employment by Status
Freelance (%) 19.20 18.40 20.40 17.70 16.60
Assisted by Not Fixed Labor (%) 24.00 22.30 21.20 17.90 16.90
Assisted by Fixed Labor (%) 3.00 3.00 2.90 3.40 3.50
Labor / Employee / Servant (%) 27.30 27.70 27.50 34.40 36.40
Freelancer in Agriculture (%) 4.90 5.90 5.80 5.00 4.80
Freelancer in Non-Agricultural (%) 3.90 4.60 5.20 5.10 5.60
Work with Family / Unpaid (%) 17.60 18.00 16.90 16.40 16.20
T o t a l 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Source: Indonesia Minimum Wage Policy (wcms_210427/BPS, 2013)
Table 1 has explained that there has been a transfer of labor from agriculture to other economic sectors.
Employment in agricultural sector has decreased 5.6 percent per year, while other economic sectors had
increased. The industrial sector increased by 1.3 percent, the trade sector rose 1.9 per cent, the service sector
rose 6.4 percent and other economic sectors increased by 8.4 percent per year. In connection with that, this
study aims to analyze the relationship between investment, production, exports, and imports as well as the
Impact on Labor Absorption in Indonesia. This analysis is expected to answer the question, how much impact
the growth of production and investment towards employment absorption capacity of the existing workforce.
There are three jobs that are the most widely demanded, there are laborers / employees / workers
(average 30.66%). Helped by temporary workers are in average of 20:46 percent. Entrepreneur is in average of
18:46 percent. Indicating that being entrepreneur has not occupied a dominant position. This may be an
indication that the entrepreneurs in Indonesia have been inadequate in number. To encourage adequate
employment, the educational entrepreneurs must be fostered.
II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1. Investment
Investment is capital expenditure at the present time to obtain greater benefits in the future.
Investments can be made using domestic investment and foreign investment. Investment through domestic
resources derived from public savings and government savings. Sources in this country may be greatest if the
community has the ability to set aside more of their income for consumption purposes. The level of income per
capita that is low becomes a major obstacle in mobilizing public savings to finance investment. This caused the
government must provide an opportunity for foreigners to invest. Investment is an important component in
stimulating economic growth and creating jobs in a more sustainable manner. Investments can be created
through the investment of domestic and foreign investment or foreign direct investment (FDI). Investments
should be made on the leading sector, such as the manufacturing sector and Agroindustry. Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) plays an important role in enhancing the capacity of key sectors of the national economic,
such as crude oil or some branch of the manufacturing industry sectors such as textiles and garments, footwear
industry and service sectors such as telecommunications, transport and financial services (Cu Chi Loi , 2010).
Investing requires a conducive business environment and appropriate government policies. Currently,
the effort to improve the business climate has been done but not optimal. Investments include all domestic
spending by governments and the private sector aims to establish new factories, increasing capacity and quality
of service industries, building economic infrastructure. Investment is the demand for goods and services to
create or increase production capacity and revenue in the future (Dornbusch, Fischer & Startz, 2004).

Economic growth model which was developed from Keynes's theory focuses on the role of savings and
investment. When an economy has the capacity savings, then these savings can be used for the capital for the
achievement of economic growth of a country. There is a positive correlation between investment and economic
growth (Arsyad, 2005; Harrod-Domar in Mukhlis, 2012). Another study found a high correlation between
savings with investment (Feldstein & Horioka, 1980).The success of economic growth cannot be separated from
the increasing investment. Investment is the rate of growth determinants. Besides, the output, the investment
also will automatically increase the demand for inputs, which in turn will increase employment and social
welfare. (Ma'mun & Yasin, 2003).
2.2. Production
Production capacity of an economy shows the limits of the economy to produce goods and services.
Where all are used in full capacity. The number of jobs provided by the sector service industries related to all
export activities that consider the relationship directly or indirectly carrying are larger than the total number of
jobs created by all manufacturing exports (Relavan in Hengki Issakh Idris, 2013). Economic growth occurs
when there is a rise in the real gross national product or national income rill. The economy is said to grow in
case of real output growth. Economic growth which illustrates the increase in the standard of living measured by
real output per person. Economic growth as a continuous rise in product per capita or per worker. It is often
accompanied by the increase in population and usually also by structural changes (Todaro, 2003; Kuznets in
Jhingan, 2004).
Economic growth showed the extent to which economic activity would generate additional income.
Because basically economic activity is a process of using the factors of production to produce output (Mankiw,
2003). Some existing models, including models of neo-classical theory developed by Solow is a major growth
in the 1960s designed to show how the growth in savings and capital stock, population growth, and advances in
technology interact in economic growth. It also explains how they affect the total output of goods and services a
country. This model states that the output depends on the capital stock and labor force. Assuming that the
production process has a constant scale returns. Economic growth depends on the increase supply of factors of
production; population, labor, and capital accumulation (Badrudin, 2012).
The model of growth as indicated by the equation Y = F (K, L) that national output is a function of the
inputs used in the production process, which in this case is assumed to consist of capital factor (K) and labor
factor (L). This function is an aggregate for connecting between the total economic output of the total amount of
the two main factors that are used to produce the output (Solow, 1956). There are three factors or major
component of economic growth. First, the accumulation of capital which includes all forms and types of new
investments were invested in land, physical equipment and human resources. Second, population growth in the
next few years by itself bring labor force growth. Third, advances in technology (Todaro, 2003). The indicators
used to measure economic growth is the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Mankiw, 2003).There
are several underlying reasons for the selection of economic growth using Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
which is that GDP is the total value added generated by all productive activity in the economy, this means an
increase in the GDP also reflects an increase in remuneration to the factors of production used in the production
activity.
2.3. Export and Import
The main factor that causes the direction of the flow of exports and imports is the improvement in the
trade balance. Surplus trade balance on goods will be able to adequately cover the services trade deficit and the
deficit in capital flows. Effect of increase in exports against imports are equal to the effect of increased
investment against imports, but in terms of the balance of payments, the effect of changes in exports is not as
big as the effect of changes in investment. Increased imports as a result of increased investment are usually not
preceded by an increase in exports. Increase in exports is always tendentious to decreasing the balance of deficit
payment, otherwise the decline in the value of exports has always resulted in increased deficits or declining
balance of payments surplus. Improved trade balance requires rapid export growth.

2.4. The Employment
Population growth will clearly add to the number of items used, but the proportion will greatly depend
on the increase in employment. If the population growth was accompanied by the increase in employment, it
will be more receiving income. So that consumer purchasing power will increase. Labor is the one who do the
work in order to produce goods or services to meet the needs of themselves and society (the Law of the
Republic of Indonesia No. 13 of 2003).
Employment is one factor supporting economic development undertaken by developing countries
aimed at creating equitable economic development. Based on the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 13
of 2003, Article 1, paragraph 2 defines employment as follows:“ Labor is any person who is able to work in
order to produce goods and / or services to meet the needs of themselves and for society” One attempt to
improve employment is through the development in the industrial sector. Development in the industrial sector is
part of a long-term effort to improve the unbalanced economic structure.
2.5. Labor Absorption
The level of relatively high population growth affects the growth of the labor force. The greater the number of
working-age population, hence labor force will grow, both as workers and as a job seeker. The labor force is the
workers who work and looking for work. Labor are all working age population (15-59 years of age according to
the concept of ESCAP, 15-64 years according to the International concept and 10 years and over according to
the concept of Indonesia (BPS, 2000). Finding a job is also called unemployed i.e. those who conduct job
search. Job opportunities and unemployment can be calculated by using the following formula:
Where: k = constant number (worth 100)
Labor Force Absorption Rate (LFPR) is the ratio of the number of labor force to the working age
population (15 years and above). In this case the meaning of the labor force is the number of people working
and looking for work. While the working age population is composed of the labor force and not the labor force,
LFPR shows the magnitude of the working age population that is working and looking for work. The absorption
rate of the labor force can be written:
Where:
Ak = Labor force,
UK = Working age population.
The labor force consists of employed and unemployed population. While that is not the workforce is
comprised of people who in the reference period does not perform economic activities, either because of school,
taking care of the household or the other. While the definition of working is doing activities with the intent to
obtain or help earn income for at least one hour a week. Worked for an hour should be done consecutively and
uninterrupted. Unemployment includes people without working, looking for work, preparing for a new business
or have been accepted to work but have not started working. Looking for work defines as the effort which is
made to obtain a job at one period of reference.

III. METHODS
This research was conducted by using survey method. The data used is secondary data collected
through research documents in the National Central Bureau of Statistics in Jakarta. Data were analyzed using
correlation and multiple regression analysis (Ghozali, 2005). The value of each variable analysis of the
algorithm values previously withdrawn, except with respect to the analysis of growth.
The design of the research model is as follows:
Log Y = bo + b1LogX1 + b2LogX2 + b3LogX3 +b4LogX4 + ei ……… (a)
ΔY = bo + b3ΔX3 +b4ΔX4 + ei ………………………………..……… (b)
Where :
Log Y = absorbed labor
Log X1= exports value
Log X2= imports value
Log X3= production value
Log X4= investment value
ΔY cha g s abs f ab
ΔX3= production growth
ΔX4= investment growth
ΔY = 100, a d h sa c ss s ca d ca c a g ΔX3 a d ΔX4. = labor
absorption in year into t, and = labor absorption in the previous year.
In addition, the data were also analyzed by using multiple correlation analysis with the intention to
measure the relationship of independent variables studied with labor is absorbed. Regression analysis was
performed as a measure of the effect of each independent variable analyzed toward labor absorbed.
IV. RESULT
Results of multiple correlation analysis of the model (a) generating correlation values in Table 2.
Table 2.
Multiple Correlation Analysis Log Y = f(LogX1, LogX2, LogX3, LogX4)
No Variables Log Y Log X1 Log X2 Log X3 Log X4 p-value
1 Log Y 1 -
2 Log X1 0.959 1 0.000
3 Log X2 0.928 0.980 1 0.000
4 Log X3 -0.780 -0.854 -0.847 1 0.001
5 Log X4 -0.325 0.441 -0.169 0.917 1 0.236
Source: Data analyzed by SPSS of Appendix 1
Based on the correlation values in Table 2, it can be seen that the export, import and production are
correlated significantly with workers absorbed. There are only investment is not significantly correlated. In
addition, the interesting thing is the negative relationship between production (X3) and investment (X4) with
workers absorbed (Y). This means that the increase in exports and imports encourage increased labor force. As
with the production and investment, has the opposite behavior. This occurs because the industrial sector in
Indonesia is still using imported raw materials and the investment has not focused on agriculture-based industry
(domestic resources). To explore the behavior of variable causality analysis, the following are presented results
of the regression analysis, simultaneously and partially.

Table 3. Analysis of Simultaneous Variables
Data Table 3 shows that simultaneously analyzed four independent variables that significantly
influence the absorption of labor in various jobs. But partially, the conditions are presented in Table 4.
Table 4. Results of Analysis of Partial Independent Variable
Analysis according to Table 4 generates the regression equation:
Log Y = 5.506 + 0.202 LogX1 – 0.023 LogX2 + 0.002 LogX3 – 0.017 LogX4.
Table 4 shows that only exports are already having positive and significant impact. Although not
significant in the production, but positive influence is on the export of labor absorption instead. As with the
import and investment showed a negative relationship and influence, meaning that an increase in imports would
result in a weakening of the economic absorptive capacity of the labor sector. Investment also showed the same
behavior. Thus, some improvements in the field of investment policy are necessarily needed. Investment should
be encouraged spaciousness effort to stimulate and encourage the development of export-based growth of the
domestic industry and strengthen agriculture. ,Viewed from the angle of the impact of growth in domestic
production and investment, hence the results of analysis are presented in Table 5.
Table 5. Impact of Production Growth and Investment
Source: Data analyzed by SPSS of Appendix 1.
Based on data from Table 5, obtained a regression equation:
ΔY = 1.796 + 0.008ΔX3 + 0.008ΔX4
ANOVA
b
.015 4 .004 37.358 .000
a
.001 10 .000
.016 14
Regress ion
Residual
Total
Model
1
Sum of
Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Predictors: (Cons tant), LogX4, LogX3, LogX2, LogX1a.
Dependent Variable: LogYb.
Coefficients
a
5.506 .659 8.358 .000
.202 .074 1.185 2.729 .021
-.023 .050 -.188 -.456 .658
.002 .005 .075 .471 .648
-.017 .014 -.104 -1.202 .257
(Cons tant)
LogX1
LogX2
LogX3
LogX4
Model
1
B Std. Error
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: LogYa.
Coefficients
a
1.796 .288 6.227 .000
.008 .007 .275 1.058 .313
.008 .005 .426 1.638 .130
(Cons tant)
pertumbuhan
inves tasi
Model
1
B Std. Error
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: serapana.

Growth of Production and Investment Enhancement does not significantly influence the increase in
labor absorption. However, the correlation and the effect were positive. Meaning that, there is the relationship
and influence between production growth and development investment to increase labor absorption. These
results indicate the need for central government support Indonesia in the field of real sector and investment.
Business field should be developed is the field that is able to accelerate the rapid growth of employment.
Business field should be encouraged is agriculture-based industries (Agroindustry).
Posture study variables can be seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Variable Research Visual
Figure 1 illustrates that the actual export and import measured in rupiah in the period 1997-2011 is
likely to increase. The value of production in the same period, precisely from 2004 to 2011 continued to decline.
The symptoms are also seen in investment, though the decline of investment was not as big as production.
V. DISCUSSION
The analysis showed the relevance of the findings showed that investment in the form of FDI and
economic growth affect the expansion of employment opportunities (Tambunan, 2005; Jonaidi, 2012; Susilo,
2013). The trade impact on a country's strong economy and its effect on employment (UNCTAD, 2013). The
study also found that the trade, especially foreign trade (exports and imports) correlates strongly and positively
with employment. The shift of labor to the agricultural sector and other economic sectors tend not to reduce
agricultural production. Even it will increase the economic productivity (Kariyasa, 2006).
During the study period, it has been proven that the agricultural sector workforce has shifted to other
economic sectors, such as manufacturing sectors, trade and services. But such a shift is followed by specific
agricultural production, especially soybean and fruits. However, labor mobility agriculture and other economic
to sector will still take place due to the attractiveness of wages in other sectors of the economy. Thus, the
employment in manufacturing sectors needs to be increased. Only a shift in power agricultural sector must be
followed with the right policy. Modernization of the agricultural sector needs to be done. Modernization of the
agricultural sector needs to be done by giving priority to the development of agroindustry and agribusiness
(Kurniati & Yanfitri, 2010). Harrod-Domar theory sees the need to mobilize the community to increase the
potential savings. Increased savings need to be followed by an increase in investment, particularly investment in
the sector Agroindustry. All of these will encourage the expansion of employment opportunities (Rahayu, 2014).
Businesses prosper society must start from the provision of employment opportunities for all residents.Through
employment, people will earn sufficient income to meet the educational needs of children, health care and
simultaneously increase income per capita. The constructive effort would be useful for eradicating the poverty
(Khan, 2007). The findings of this study support the results of previous study that the Agroindustry sector needs
to be developed as well as enhancing the investment. It will promote the development of labor absorption
sectors of industry and agriculture.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
LogY
LogX1
LogX2
LogX3
LogX4

VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the results of the analysis can be concluded that trade (exports and imports) along with
production is useful to increase employment opportunities. Economic growth is measured by the growth in
production and investment growth shows its effect on increasing employment opportunities. Simultaneously,
exports, imports, production and investment have a significant effect on employment.
Indonesian government is urged to keep encouraging investment, especially sector Agroindustry and
other agriculture-based industries, including fertilizer and pesticide industries. Imports of used clothing and used
tires must be stopped to allow the recovery of the industrial sector to do business profitably economic capacity.
The agricultural sector must still get attention, especially food crops such as soybean, corn and rice, and fruits. It
is intended to strengthen the national food agriculture and conserve foreign exchange.
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Appendix 1.
Export, Imports, Production, Investment and Labor Absorption
Year
Export
(Rp)
Imports
(Rp)
Production
(Rp)
Investment
(Rp)
Labor
(People)
1997 534436000000000 416798000000000 6276955190000000 338444872900000 85050000
1998 488476000000000 273369000000000 10023330000000000 135691749300000 87290000
1999 486655000000000 240033000000000 11099795000000000 108959550000000 88820000
2000 621240000000000 335148000000000 12649187480000000 160851327700000 89840000
2001 563209000000000 309621000000000 14676548350000000 150617672900000 90810000
2002 571588000000000 312889000000000 16105649510000000 97916307600000 91650000
2003 610582000000000 330859000000000 17866909190000000 136012092100000 92810000
2004 715846000000000 465245000000000 106100810000000 102835140400000 93720000
2005 856600000000000 577009000000000 127048390000000 135490576400000 93960000
2006 1007986000000000 610655000000000 33392168000000 156342767200000 95460000
2007 1141009000000000 744734000000000 39508932000000 401646870300000 99930000
2008 1370204000000000 1291974000000000 45513587000000 148734303400000 102550000
2009 1165100000000000 968292000000000 51414144000000 105190799900000 104870000
2010 1577791000000000 1356633000000000 59362378000000 152195525300000 108210000
2011 2034966000000000 1774356000000000 67943734000000 51323022400000 109670000
Source: Results of research

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