Building the Future:
thinking, planning, doing
Jane Dysart
jane@dysartjones.com
Rebecca Jones
rebecca@dysartjones.com
www.dysartjones.com
Focus for today
Viewing
situations &
solutions
strategicall
y
It’s so hard for us
– & for our
colleagues – to
see the big
picture….&
especially to see
it through non-
library or non-
information
lenses.”
Today’s approach
§ Consider strategic contexts &
strategic thinking
§ Explore scanning & visioning
§ Apply some techniques
§ Share experiences & learnings
with each other & with some
who rock the boats
Seeing Possibilities
Seeing
Differently
Adjusting
Views
Our Lenses
Begin to find clarity
• Identify 3 or 4 words or phrases
you feel are integral to each
of:
• Strategy
• Strategic thinking
• In 10 minutes, be ready to tell
us who is in your group, and
the terms your group used to
discuss these concepts
• Join 2 other people, any people
Preparing for
Significant Change:
§  Rooted in Trends &
Different Thinking
Willingness to Shift Focus:
§  Divest to Invest
Readiness to:
§  Accept the Implications
§  Reallocate Budget and
Priorities to Reflect New
Directions
Strategic contexts
“in making decisions, you may be at the
mercy of your mind’s strange
workings….”
Hammond, Keeney & Raiffa, The Hidden Traps in Decision Making,
Harvard Business Review, January 2006
The whole purpose of thinking strategically
is to define actions that are strategic.
Strategic “actions” focus more on ensuring
sustainability & success over the next 2 - 3 -
5 years, than about putting out fires today.
Strategic Thinking:
Mintzberg
Management
vs.
Avoidance
Critical Thinking
“ the intellectually disciplined process of
actively and skillfully conceptualizing,
applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or
evaluating information gathered from, or
generated by, observation, experience,
reflection, reasoning, or communication,
as a guide to belief and action.”
Cri$cal	
  Thinking	
  as	
  Defined	
  by	
  the	
  Na$onal	
  Council	
  for	
  Excellence	
  in	
  Cri$cal	
  Thinking,	
  1987	
  
A	
  statement	
  by	
  Michael	
  Scriven	
  &	
  Richard	
  Paul	
  at	
  the	
  8th	
  Annual	
  Interna:onal	
  Conference	
  on	
  Cri:cal	
  Thinking	
  and	
  Educa:on	
  Reform,	
  	
  
Summer	
  1987}.	
  hHp://www.cri:calthinking.org/page.cfm?PageID=766&CategoryID=51	
  Last	
  accessed	
  May	
  31,	
  2009	
  
	
  
Critical thinking is really about
§ Decision-making & problem-solving
§ Openmindedness
§ Productive dialogue
Good Critical Thinking
§ Raises the right questions – clearly & precisely
§ Focuses on the real problem or decision to
be taken
§ Gathers & assesses relevant information
§ Develops well-reasoned conclusions &
solutions, testing them against relevant
criteria and standards
§ Relies on recognizing & assessing
assumptions, implications, & consequencesR
Think critically,
don’t criticize
What if the
opposite
were true?
Critical optimism
“when planning (we) cannot be, by definition,
pessimists. It just doesn’t go with the job. We’re
supposed to be defining the future, aren’t we? [...]
If we can’t see the world as a better place to live
in, than what chance does anyone else have?”
“History tells us that before great library can
happen, it first has to be a mission. And a mission
starts with a dream. As library employees &
advocates, we potentially hold enormous power.
And with it comes responsibility. Wield it
imaginatively and wisely. And optimistically.”
Richard Seymour, Optimistic Futurism in Interactions
Why?
•  For our customers
•  Designing meaningful services
•  For our organizations
•  Planning, negotiating, managing & relationship building
•  For ourselves, and our professional credibility
•  Aware & factor in our :
•  tendencies & assumptions
•  perceptions & selections based on conditioning, beliefs
and desires, focus, emotions
•  reconstructive memory affected by time, what we want
to remember, and after-acquired information and
suggestion
•  confidence in our knowledge & ability to reason
Wakes us up
“We’ve always” won’t move us
forward
“Naming” the process at first makes it
legitimate to:
Ø Challenge usual practices
Ø Rethink what has been thought
Ø Expand the emphasis from short-term
fixes to long-term
Surfaces our decision traps
§ Framing
§ Status quo
§ Anchoring
§ Sunk cost fallacy
Based	
  on	
  the	
  work	
  of	
  Michael	
  B.	
  
Metzger,	
  Kelley	
  	
  
School	
  of	
  Business,	
  Indiana	
  University	
  
§ Information
gathering traps
§ Overconfidence
bias
§ Availability
§ Confirmation
bias
§ Generalization
§ False cause
Clarify your frame
§ Your assumptions form your “frame”
through which you “see” the
situation
§ The questions we ask very often
determine the type of answers we
get So……..
§ Don’t accept the first frame – or question
§ “re-frame” or look at the issue from
different perspectives, particularly from
customer or stakeholder perspectives
Question your status-quo
§ Like it or not, tendency is
to perpetuate what we
already know
§ Psychologically risky
“breaking from the status
quo means taking action,
and when we take action,
we take responsibility, thus
o p e n i n g o u r s e l v e s t o
criticism and to regret.”
Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa
So…….
§ Focus on the goal & ask
how status quo helps move
towards them
§ Evaluate vs. all other
alternatives IN TERMS OF
THE FUTURE
§ Ask outsiders to review
your evaluations
Lift your anchor
§ What we hear or see
first influences our
subsequent thinking
§ Past statistics &
trends, an article, a
colleague’s
comment
§ The order in which
we receive info
distorts our judgment
So…..
§ Be aware
§ Find different starting points
§ As you gather other people to
discuss the issue, try to limit the
information you give them
§ Clarity your base assumptions
§ Keep coming back to the issue
on which you are focusing
Surface your costs
When you find yourself in a hole,
the best thing you can do is stop
digging.
Warren Buffet
Case study: after-action review
When have you taken a strategic stand?
Approached a service or operation
differently?
What did you learn? What worked?
What didn’t?
As a result of this, what is your frame?
What are your anchors?
What are your sunk costs?
A pessimist sees the difficulty in
every opportunity;
an optimist sees the
opportunity in every
difficulty.
Winston Churchill
Gap or green field?
Peripheral Vision
§ Process for building "vigilant
organizations" that are constantly
attuned to changes in the environment
§ Steps focus on improving receiving,
interpreting and acting on weak
signals from the periphery 
Scope: limit
where to look
Scan:
with
intention
Interpret:
data’s
meaning
Probe:
some
data
Act: on
the
insights
George S. Day & Paul J. H. Schoemaker,
Harvard Business School Press, 2006
Trends
§ Capture, manage & use
§ Keep staff & Board or
influencers current, NOT just
at strategic planning time
§ Discuss implications
http://socialwisdom.ca
Sources of Ideas
§ Examine your skills & talents
§ Keep up with current events
§ Investigate other markets
Consider:
Paper.li
What are the implications?
Critical thinking, trends & assumptions
Strategic
thinking
Decision-making
Strategic
planning
Deliberated tasks
Operational
planning
• Take a wide scope
• Ask the right questions
• Scan different places
• Pay attention to signals
• Explore for more info
• Decide
• Act
Strategy needs to be experienced
“Beyond Strategic Thinking” Jeanne Liedtka, Darden School of Business,
University of Virginia, Rotman Magazine Winter 2011 p. 29+ (author of
Designing for Growth, 2011)
John Maxwell, Leadership Gold, 2010
Design your future
Stand in
the future
Decision-
makers
Vision
Some
Staff’s
Vision
CEO
Vision
My
Vision
Your
vision
Other
Staff’s
Vision
Common view;
various perspectives
Systems
Thinking:
Embracing
Complexity
Dave Pollard
Applying
Case Studies to
Spark Thinking
Case Study
1.  Prepare your decision approach for either Case 1
or Case 2
- 10 minutes
2.  Next, with your colleague:
§  Talk through your plan or approach with each
other
§  Advise each other on critical thinking decision
traps
§  Determine your anchors & assumptions
-- 10 minutes
Case one:
§ Your budget will be 10%
less for the next financial
year.
§ 80% of your current budget
is staff, 15% is content, the
other 5% is for various
administrative costs (travel,
training, phones, supplies).
§ Put together an approach
for making the decision of
how to work within this
budget.
Case two:
§ You have an idea for a
new service you believe
clients will value. There
isn’t any more funding
available and staff are
working at capacity.
§ Put together a plan for
making the case to
proceed with the service.
Case one:
Your budget will be 10% less for the next financial year. 70% of your current budget is staff, 15% is
content, the other 15% is for various administrative and operating costs (technology, training, phones,
supplies).
In 10 minutes, draft an approach for working within this budget.
Case two:
You have an idea for a new service you believe clients will value. There isn’t any more funding
available and staff are working at capacity.
In 10 minutes, draft a plan for making the case to proceed with the service.
Discuss with a partner for 10 minutes:
1.  What surprised you when you had to think about critical thinking practices and avoiding decision-
making traps?
2.  How did you “frame” the situation?
3.  What assumptions were you making?
4.  What anchors did you identify?
5.  What will you do differently in making decisions?
6.  How will you apply this starting now?
Implementing
We can’t make decisions alone
or in a vacuum, nor can we
implement in the same way we
always have.
The decisions & problems we
face are increasingly complex.
Social Wisdom.ca
“Top five desired skill sets for digital strategist:
§ Facilitation; work with cross functional groups to create
alignment on objectives & plans
§ Influence & negotiation; articulate benefits & risks associated
with digital opportunities
§ Analytics; identify the insights that will contribute to a
balanced, thoughtful review of a business; distill intelligence
from data
§ Project management 
§ Synthesis.  [a rare skill]; synthesize activity, client needs or
discussions to distill to the most salient facts.”
Implementation plan
Project
facilitator
Team
Project C
Project
facilitator
Team
Project B
Project
facilitator
Team
Project A
Managed, persistent progress
Project charters
Effective
meetings
Formal &
informal buzz
Service Models
Roles & working
relationships
Practitioner’s Experiences
Not just any
practitioners:
§ Stephen Abram
§ Ken Haycock
§ Donna Scheeder
Seeing Possibilities
Seeing
Differently
Adjusting
Views
Sources to Consider
§ www.trendwatching.com
§ www.trendhunter.com
§ www.infotoday.com
§ www.davidleeking.com/
§ www.walkingpaper.org/
§  www.tametheweb.com/
§  www.socialwisdom.ca
§ http://stephenslighthouse.com/
Stephen Abram
§ www.wfs.org World Future
Society
§ www.librarytechnology.org
Marshall Breeding
§ Library of Congress Webcast
series: Digital future
http://www.loc.gov/today/
cyberlc/results.php?
mode=s&cat=45
§ www.nowandnext.com
Building the Future Workshop, June 6th, 2014
2 things I am going to do with this information, or as a result of our discussions today are:
1.
2.
I’ll do this by (date):_________________________
Thank
you
Jane,
Rebecca
Guests!

Building the future june 6th workshop slides

  • 1.
    Building the Future: thinking,planning, doing Jane Dysart jane@dysartjones.com Rebecca Jones rebecca@dysartjones.com www.dysartjones.com
  • 2.
    Focus for today Viewing situations& solutions strategicall y
  • 3.
    It’s so hardfor us – & for our colleagues – to see the big picture….& especially to see it through non- library or non- information lenses.”
  • 4.
    Today’s approach § Consider strategiccontexts & strategic thinking § Explore scanning & visioning § Apply some techniques § Share experiences & learnings with each other & with some who rock the boats
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Begin to findclarity • Identify 3 or 4 words or phrases you feel are integral to each of: • Strategy • Strategic thinking • In 10 minutes, be ready to tell us who is in your group, and the terms your group used to discuss these concepts • Join 2 other people, any people
  • 8.
    Preparing for Significant Change: § Rooted in Trends & Different Thinking Willingness to Shift Focus: §  Divest to Invest Readiness to: §  Accept the Implications §  Reallocate Budget and Priorities to Reflect New Directions Strategic contexts
  • 9.
    “in making decisions,you may be at the mercy of your mind’s strange workings….” Hammond, Keeney & Raiffa, The Hidden Traps in Decision Making, Harvard Business Review, January 2006
  • 10.
    The whole purposeof thinking strategically is to define actions that are strategic. Strategic “actions” focus more on ensuring sustainability & success over the next 2 - 3 - 5 years, than about putting out fires today.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
    Critical Thinking “ theintellectually disciplined process of actively and skillfully conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication, as a guide to belief and action.” Cri$cal  Thinking  as  Defined  by  the  Na$onal  Council  for  Excellence  in  Cri$cal  Thinking,  1987   A  statement  by  Michael  Scriven  &  Richard  Paul  at  the  8th  Annual  Interna:onal  Conference  on  Cri:cal  Thinking  and  Educa:on  Reform,     Summer  1987}.  hHp://www.cri:calthinking.org/page.cfm?PageID=766&CategoryID=51  Last  accessed  May  31,  2009    
  • 14.
    Critical thinking isreally about § Decision-making & problem-solving § Openmindedness § Productive dialogue
  • 15.
    Good Critical Thinking § Raisesthe right questions – clearly & precisely § Focuses on the real problem or decision to be taken § Gathers & assesses relevant information § Develops well-reasoned conclusions & solutions, testing them against relevant criteria and standards § Relies on recognizing & assessing assumptions, implications, & consequencesR
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
    Critical optimism “when planning(we) cannot be, by definition, pessimists. It just doesn’t go with the job. We’re supposed to be defining the future, aren’t we? [...] If we can’t see the world as a better place to live in, than what chance does anyone else have?” “History tells us that before great library can happen, it first has to be a mission. And a mission starts with a dream. As library employees & advocates, we potentially hold enormous power. And with it comes responsibility. Wield it imaginatively and wisely. And optimistically.” Richard Seymour, Optimistic Futurism in Interactions
  • 19.
    Why? •  For ourcustomers •  Designing meaningful services •  For our organizations •  Planning, negotiating, managing & relationship building •  For ourselves, and our professional credibility •  Aware & factor in our : •  tendencies & assumptions •  perceptions & selections based on conditioning, beliefs and desires, focus, emotions •  reconstructive memory affected by time, what we want to remember, and after-acquired information and suggestion •  confidence in our knowledge & ability to reason
  • 20.
    Wakes us up “We’vealways” won’t move us forward “Naming” the process at first makes it legitimate to: Ø Challenge usual practices Ø Rethink what has been thought Ø Expand the emphasis from short-term fixes to long-term
  • 21.
    Surfaces our decisiontraps § Framing § Status quo § Anchoring § Sunk cost fallacy Based  on  the  work  of  Michael  B.   Metzger,  Kelley     School  of  Business,  Indiana  University   § Information gathering traps § Overconfidence bias § Availability § Confirmation bias § Generalization § False cause
  • 22.
    Clarify your frame § Yourassumptions form your “frame” through which you “see” the situation § The questions we ask very often determine the type of answers we get So…….. § Don’t accept the first frame – or question § “re-frame” or look at the issue from different perspectives, particularly from customer or stakeholder perspectives
  • 23.
    Question your status-quo § Likeit or not, tendency is to perpetuate what we already know § Psychologically risky “breaking from the status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility, thus o p e n i n g o u r s e l v e s t o criticism and to regret.” Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa So……. § Focus on the goal & ask how status quo helps move towards them § Evaluate vs. all other alternatives IN TERMS OF THE FUTURE § Ask outsiders to review your evaluations
  • 24.
    Lift your anchor § Whatwe hear or see first influences our subsequent thinking § Past statistics & trends, an article, a colleague’s comment § The order in which we receive info distorts our judgment So….. § Be aware § Find different starting points § As you gather other people to discuss the issue, try to limit the information you give them § Clarity your base assumptions § Keep coming back to the issue on which you are focusing
  • 25.
    Surface your costs Whenyou find yourself in a hole, the best thing you can do is stop digging. Warren Buffet
  • 26.
    Case study: after-actionreview When have you taken a strategic stand? Approached a service or operation differently? What did you learn? What worked? What didn’t? As a result of this, what is your frame? What are your anchors? What are your sunk costs?
  • 27.
    A pessimist seesthe difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Winston Churchill Gap or green field?
  • 28.
    Peripheral Vision § Process forbuilding "vigilant organizations" that are constantly attuned to changes in the environment § Steps focus on improving receiving, interpreting and acting on weak signals from the periphery  Scope: limit where to look Scan: with intention Interpret: data’s meaning Probe: some data Act: on the insights George S. Day & Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Harvard Business School Press, 2006
  • 29.
    Trends § Capture, manage &use § Keep staff & Board or influencers current, NOT just at strategic planning time § Discuss implications http://socialwisdom.ca
  • 30.
    Sources of Ideas § Examineyour skills & talents § Keep up with current events § Investigate other markets
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
    What are theimplications?
  • 34.
    Critical thinking, trends& assumptions Strategic thinking Decision-making Strategic planning Deliberated tasks Operational planning
  • 35.
    • Take a widescope • Ask the right questions • Scan different places • Pay attention to signals • Explore for more info • Decide • Act
  • 36.
    Strategy needs tobe experienced “Beyond Strategic Thinking” Jeanne Liedtka, Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Rotman Magazine Winter 2011 p. 29+ (author of Designing for Growth, 2011)
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
    Case Study 1.  Prepareyour decision approach for either Case 1 or Case 2 - 10 minutes 2.  Next, with your colleague: §  Talk through your plan or approach with each other §  Advise each other on critical thinking decision traps §  Determine your anchors & assumptions -- 10 minutes
  • 44.
    Case one: § Your budgetwill be 10% less for the next financial year. § 80% of your current budget is staff, 15% is content, the other 5% is for various administrative costs (travel, training, phones, supplies). § Put together an approach for making the decision of how to work within this budget. Case two: § You have an idea for a new service you believe clients will value. There isn’t any more funding available and staff are working at capacity. § Put together a plan for making the case to proceed with the service.
  • 45.
    Case one: Your budgetwill be 10% less for the next financial year. 70% of your current budget is staff, 15% is content, the other 15% is for various administrative and operating costs (technology, training, phones, supplies). In 10 minutes, draft an approach for working within this budget.
  • 46.
    Case two: You havean idea for a new service you believe clients will value. There isn’t any more funding available and staff are working at capacity. In 10 minutes, draft a plan for making the case to proceed with the service.
  • 47.
    Discuss with apartner for 10 minutes: 1.  What surprised you when you had to think about critical thinking practices and avoiding decision- making traps? 2.  How did you “frame” the situation? 3.  What assumptions were you making? 4.  What anchors did you identify? 5.  What will you do differently in making decisions? 6.  How will you apply this starting now?
  • 48.
  • 49.
    We can’t makedecisions alone or in a vacuum, nor can we implement in the same way we always have. The decisions & problems we face are increasingly complex.
  • 50.
    Social Wisdom.ca “Top fivedesired skill sets for digital strategist: § Facilitation; work with cross functional groups to create alignment on objectives & plans § Influence & negotiation; articulate benefits & risks associated with digital opportunities § Analytics; identify the insights that will contribute to a balanced, thoughtful review of a business; distill intelligence from data § Project management  § Synthesis.  [a rare skill]; synthesize activity, client needs or discussions to distill to the most salient facts.”
  • 51.
  • 52.
    Managed, persistent progress Projectcharters Effective meetings Formal & informal buzz Service Models Roles & working relationships
  • 53.
    Practitioner’s Experiences Not justany practitioners: § Stephen Abram § Ken Haycock § Donna Scheeder
  • 54.
  • 55.
    Sources to Consider § www.trendwatching.com § www.trendhunter.com § www.infotoday.com § www.davidleeking.com/ § www.walkingpaper.org/ § www.tametheweb.com/ §  www.socialwisdom.ca § http://stephenslighthouse.com/ Stephen Abram § www.wfs.org World Future Society § www.librarytechnology.org Marshall Breeding § Library of Congress Webcast series: Digital future http://www.loc.gov/today/ cyberlc/results.php? mode=s&cat=45 § www.nowandnext.com
  • 56.
    Building the FutureWorkshop, June 6th, 2014 2 things I am going to do with this information, or as a result of our discussions today are: 1. 2. I’ll do this by (date):_________________________
  • 57.