Accelerating climate transition despite economic uncertainty

The global push for a standardized “green transition” leapfrogging fossil fuel, strict carbon pricing and donor-driven conditions simply doesn’t fit Africa’s development context. In my latest ( long but needed ) article, I examine why these popular frameworks risk stalling both climate and economic progress, then offer alternative approaches grounded in on-the-ground realities across Zambia, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya and the DRC. Key takeaways: Dual-track energy build-out: We cannot leapfrog power infrastructure like we did with mobile phones. Africa needs simultaneous investment in foundational grids and renewables, so development and decarbonization advance hand in hand. Fair carbon budgets: Rather than a blunt price, allocations should reflect historical emissions, population and adaptation costs. South Africa’s phased-in tax with targeted exemptions offers one model of equity in action. Sovereign climate finance: Too often, only 45% of funding aligns with national plans. We must insist that every grant and loan serve country-determined priorities, avoiding the trap of “green conditionality.” Homegrown innovation ecosystems: Technology co-development, local manufacturing, R&D, supportive regulation and IP reform ensures projects endure beyond donor timelines and build lasting capacity. Broad economic transformation: A just transition is more than green jobs. It requires industrial diversification, targeted skills training, social protection, quality-of-work standards and formalizing informal green activities. Ultimately, Africa’s voice in global climate debates should champion development-first actions, climate justice rooted in historical responsibility, sovereign pathways of change and finance metrics that truly match the continent’s needs and contributions. Only then can climate action become a catalyst for and not a barrier to sustainable development.

I am happy to co-author this article with Beatrice WEDER DI MAURO, President of the CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research, reflecting on the urgent need to engage in collective thinking and action to adapt our response to the challenge of insurability in the face of escalating climate risks. This article, which captures key convictions from our joint workshop hosted at Collège de France by the AXA Research Fund and CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research, couldn't have been more timely.   Devastating floods in Valencia, the wildfires in Los Angeles, the typhoons in Mayotte and La Réunion... These recent climate catastrophes show a clear reality: climate risks are intensifying and the protection gap for local communities and economies are becoming evident. Global economic losses from extreme weather events reached $320 billion in 2024, while in Europe, only 25% of economic losses were insured - leaving individuals, businesses, and communities vulnerable.    To address this, we need to enhance risk-sharing mechanisms and promote partnerships between public institutions and private companies.   Ensuring insurance accessibility and effectiveness is crucial. This can be done through: ➡️ Hybrid models, combining market mechanisms with public-private partnerships, to help ensure broad coverage and affordability. France’s CatNat regime and Switzerland’s hybrid model offer valuable insights. These models can be adapted to regions facing extreme exposure, such as sea level risks. ➡️ Greater investment in prevention and risk-sharing mechanisms. Initiatives like local municipal risk assessments can help small municipalities assess and mitigate local climate risks. ➡️ Impact underwriting, where insurers incentivize policyholders to adopt risk-reducing measures in exchange for lower premiums. ➡️ Public education on climate risks and stronger coordination between insurers, governments, and consumers to ensure preventive measures are taken seriously.   As we move forward, it's clear that policymakers, insurers, and society must work together to strike a sustainable balance between affordability and fiscal viability. This is not just about who pays the bill. It is about how we manage risk in an increasingly uncertain climate landscape. Let's continue to foster collaboration and innovation to close the protection gap and build a resilient future. 👇 https://lnkd.in/er6BkrtZ

Beyond the Buzzwords: Sustainability in Action in Southeast Asia 🌏⚡🌱 Last week, I had the privilege of co-leading the London Business School Experiential Course in Singapore and Malaysia with Prof. Nitish Jain, exploring what sustainability really looks like in practice—beyond the headlines, beyond compliance checkboxes, and beyond ideological debates. In Southeast Asia, sustainability isn’t an abstract ambition; it’s embedded in economic strategy, financial decision-making, and long-term resilience planning. 🔥 Supply Chains & Pragmatic Solutions—Visiting a palm oil plantation and mill in Malaysia brought home the reality of transforming legacy industries. Seeing firsthand how supply chains are evolving—through better land management, certification programs, and investment in sustainable practices—reinforced that pragmatic transitions beat rigid ideology every time. The road is complex, but progress is happening. 💰 Finance as the Enabler—While some markets are caught in an ESG backlash, here, capital is driving change, not avoiding it. The focus isn’t on exclusion—it’s on funding the transition. From carbon pricing strategies to blended finance mechanisms, the region is finding ways to make sustainability viable rather than treating it as a constraint. This approach—one that sees sustainability as a tool for risk management and value creation—felt refreshingly forward-looking. ⚡ Energy Transition: No Easy Answers, Just Action—Decarbonization is a long, complicated road. Yet, instead of debating whether it’s possible, the focus is on how to make it happen without derailing economic stability. The region is investing in infrastructure, regional energy integration, and emerging technologies—because transitioning an economy isn’t about flipping a switch; it’s about making the shift structurally viable. 🏙️ Beyond Net Zero: Resilience & Adaptation—This trip reinforced something critical: mitigation alone won’t be enough. From supply chain risks to urban planning and healthcare systems, adaptation is now a central pillar of sustainability strategy. In a world of accelerating climate impacts, the businesses and economies that prepare for volatility will be the ones that thrive. At its core, this week was a powerful reminder that sustainability is no longer just an obligation—it’s an opportunity. The companies that see it as a source of innovation, strategic advantage, and long-term value creation are the ones shaping the future. A huge thank you to the LBS students, speakers, and organizations who made this such a dynamic and thought-provoking experience. And a special thanks to the LBS team who worked tirelessly behind and in front of the scenes to organize and deliver such a seamless and enriching week! Anna Gileva Elsa Jolley Mariam Elmahdey Charlotte Smith 👏 #Sustainability #LBS #GlobalExperience Kirstie Papworth Christopher Moseley, MCIPR

🌍 The way we are approaching, encouraging, and assessing #NetZero—through NDCs, corporate targets, and carbon accounting—is not just inherently insufficient, it is actively counterproductive. Net zero is an atmospheric imperative. Achieving it requires: • Decarbonizing the world’s energy, industrial, and food systems • Enhancing the absorptive capacity of the world’s carbon sinks Transforming these systems requires: • Clear roadmaps • Technological innovation • Adequate public and private finance • And coordinated action among public and private actors across sectors, borders, and value chains Our dominant frameworks—focused on individual country and corporate target-setting, measurement, and accounting—falsely assume that systemic, regional, and sectoral transitions can be delivered by the sum of individual targets and plans. This flawed logic disincentivizes the coordination needed. Rather than identifying an entity’s leverage to address systemic barriers to decarbonization, both countries and companies, which cannot decarbonize on their own, purchase offsets so they can methodologically “claim” to be net zero while continuing to emit, increasing rather than decreasing atmospheric GHGs. This has also led to a reliance on credits to fund nature-based and technological solutions that need substantially more and reliable financing. We’ve built an entire architecture around the wrong unit of ambition and analysis, and we are now fixing symptoms (to make the accounting more credible), not confronting the underlying structural misalignment. Accelerating climate action requires decisively shifting from individual targets to coordinated, transformative planning and implementation. This means: 🔁 Prioritizing and supporting Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), which are inherently more ambitious and pragmatic than NDCs. 🛤 Supporting scenario planning and sectoral roadmaps, not just insisting on more ambitious NDCs and FF phase-outs. In many EMDEs, there aren’t clear technical roadmaps for how FF-based energy can be replaced reliably and financed affordably. 🤝 Facilitating coordination across regions, value chains, and stakeholders, not emphasizing individual action. 💸 ensuring adequate and affordable financing for the necessary transitions. (Note: private capital doesn’t move because of better carbon accounting, risk metrics, or pressure. It moves when transitions become financeable: - Enabled by clear roadmaps and aligned policy and regulations - Structured through investable market design by coordinating demand and supply - Supported by public finance and tailored risk mitigation) As we head into New York Climate Week, I hope we focus less on statements of ambition (NDCs and corporate targets) and more on rigorous, technically grounded transition pathways—and the collaborative, cross-sector engagement required to deliver them. The stakes are too high to keep solving the wrong problem.

The World Economic Forum'S 2025 Energy Transition Index shows clear progress: the pace of transition has more than doubled in recent years. But behind the headline lies a deeper challenge—our #energy systems are still fragile, strained by rising geopolitical and economic headwinds. Sustained, accelerated #reinvention is no longer optional. To deliver energy systems that are cleaner and more resilient, we must shift from incremental change to system-level transformation. In our latest collaboration, Roberto Bocca and I lay out five strategic actions to help leaders build the adaptive, future-ready energy systems the world needs now: 1. Adopt stable, adaptive policy frameworks that support long-term investment and cross-sector collaboration  2. Modernize infrastructure—especially grids and storage—to improve reliability and integration  3. Invest in skilled talent to unlock innovation and boost delivery capacity  4. Accelerate clean tech commercialization, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors  5. Boost capital flows to developing economies, where energy transitions must be inclusive and equitable The future of energy isn’t just about being clean—it’s about being competitive, inclusive, and shock-resistant. We believe the path forward starts with coordinated action, pragmatic policy, and bold investment. Because resilient energy systems aren't just a climate goal—they’re the backbone of global economic security. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gSAZ2XNg #ETI25 #EnergyTransition #Reinvention #EnergyResilience Dr. Britta Daum Espen Mehlum David Rabley Stephanie Jamison John Downie Ashwini R.

The Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 report by the World Economic Forum highlights strategies for accelerating a sustainable, equitable, and secure global energy transition. It emphasizes the need for balanced progress across energy security, affordability, and sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, and climate challenges. The report introduces the Energy Transition Index (ETI), benchmarking 120 countries on their energy system performance and transition readiness. Key findings include the urgency to scale renewable energy, enhance grid infrastructure, and improve energy efficiency to meet 2030 climate goals. It addresses barriers like high financing costs in developing nations and supply chain constraints for critical minerals. The report advocates for policy coherence, public-private collaboration, and innovation in technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture to drive decarbonization. It underscores the importance of inclusive strategies to ensure equitable access to clean #energy, supporting economic growth and resilience in a rapidly changing #global landscape. #economy #trade #ecosystem #strategy #sustainability #future

What if the clean energy transition wasn’t just about cutting emissions - but about redesigning global finance to serve both climate and development? As the world accelerates efforts to decarbonize, one critical challenge remains under-addressed: the growing tension between debt and decarbonization. Today, many countries in the Global South face a stark paradox - they can’t afford the transition, yet can’t afford to delay it. With a global financing gap +$4 trillion annually, the stakes are immense. Today, <15% of clean energy investment reaches the Global South. In Africa alone, the annual need for sustainable energy investment exceeds $200 billion, yet the continent receives just 2% of global clean energy flows. But what if debt itself could be reimagined; not as a constraint, but as a catalyst for transformation? Here’s what a more equitable financing future could look like: 💡 Reform fossil fuel subsidies - worth $1 trillion in 2023, to free up vital public resources for clean energy, health, and education. 💡 Design smarter public financing frameworks - using tools like blended finance, green bonds, and sovereign wealth funds to mobilize private capital and reduce risk. 💡 Promote debt-for-energy swaps & donor-backed guarantees - aligning financial relief with climate action to unlock new flows of investment in high-need markets. 💡 Strengthen international cooperation - centering equity, supporting local policy design, and accelerating the deployment of clean technologies in underserved regions. It is time to recognize that debt is not just an economic issue. It is a climate issue, a justice issue, a development issue and ultimately, a survival issue. Without bold, coordinated financial reform, the promise of a global clean energy transition risks remaining out of reach for those who need it most. To explore this further, I invite you to read my latest article on illuminem 👉 https://lnkd.in/euFEESVQ #EnergyForDevelopment #DebtAndDevelopment #ClimateFinance #JustTransition #FfD4

🌍 Renewables are still expanding — even amid U.S. policy drama and political headwinds Despite the noise and uncertainty in Washington, the global clean energy transition quietly advances. Consider Vestas’ latest Q2 orders: 564 MW of wind turbines secured across EMEA and APAC — spanning major projects in Germany, Romania, Japan, France, Greece, and beyond . Deliveries and commissioning are scheduled steadily through 2026–27. The scale of investment — from Boreas Energie’s 175 MW in Germany and Eurowind’s 143 MW in Romania to Chubu Electric’s 21 MW order in Japan — shows markets worldwide are doubling down on wind . Sure, growth isn’t meteoric — the pace is more measured — but these sizable, multi-region commitments underscore a resilient momentum. While political rhetoric sways U.S. policy debates, the fundamentals of renewables growth remain solid across the globe. ✅ Summary: Renewables continue to grow — even if the speed has tempered slightly — and that’s a message worth amplifying during uncertain times. The energy transition isn’t waiting for perfect policy alignment; it’s happening, project by project.

"A third of global GDP could be lost this century, if the #climate crisis were allowed to run unchecked." An upcoming OECD - OCDE | United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report on the case for enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) reiterates the #economic realities of investing in #ClimateAction and the cost of inaction. At a time where climate #leadership is arguably more about staying the course and reaffirming commitment, the overview, presented at the at the 2025 Petersberg Climate Dialogue, reminds us of what we know to be true, not the myths that are currently being popularised. Some highlights from the key messages shared in Berlin over the past couple of days: ➡️ "Clean energy markets have rapidly expanded, 𝙛𝙪𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙗𝙮 𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙮 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙙... 𝙋𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙮 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝." Setting aside the of shortcomings of leaving 'the market' to drive #ClimateAction, it's important to recognise that a market-based approach still requires #policy intervention is clear and critical. The reality is that the world we currently live in, the norms we have become used to, have all been driven by historic #policy decisions, #investments and #subsidies. The only way we will start to rebalance 'the market' is by addressing, reversing and repositioning those policy settings. ➡️ "A low-carbon economy 𝙞𝙨 𝙖 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙮." At a time where all organisations are facing pressure to reduce costs and streamline in order to survive, the opportunities of a low-carbon economy, of designing out waste and finding the most efficient use of resources and energy, are broad and wide-ranging. ➡️ "Climate action delivers far-reaching 𝙗𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝘿𝙋 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝... Actual benefits could be even greater, as uncertain 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙛𝙪𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙤𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙝𝙤𝙤𝙙 𝙤𝙛 𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨, such as melting ice sheets or reversing circulation patterns in the ocean." Climate action isn't just a carbon play, or an environmental play. Climate action delivers broad benefits, to #health, to energy #security and access, to #poverty reduction.