Middle East Instability Deepens
BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis
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Security risks in the Middle East escalated sharply in June amid direct conflict between Iran, Israel and the US. The hostilities have included Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, Iranian attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq, and US strikes on Iranian infrastructure. BMI has closely tracked these developments, analysing the implications for Iran, Israel, the US and the broader MENA region. Our coverage assesses the impact on oil and gas markets, regional geopolitics and global trade, with recent analysis and a dedicated webinar examining the risk of further escalation and disruption to key energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
Biofuels: Policy Momentum Meets Structural Limits
Across June, BMI published a series of articles examining biofuel strategies across Asia, the GCC, and Sub-Saharan Africa. While government support is growing in all three regions, particularly for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), structural barriers continue to limit domestic production. In advanced Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore, feedstock constraints and land scarcity are key hurdles. In the Gulf, SAF and maritime fuels are gaining traction; however, local supply gaps mean that reliance on imports will remain high. In Sub-Saharan Africa, policy ambitions have yet to translate into tangible outcomes, with food insecurity, high price sensitivity, and limited capacity holding back progress. Across regions, long-term potential is clear, but near-term growth remains constrained.
- Article: Biofuels In Advanced Asian Economies: Focus On Sustainable Aviation Fuels, Challenges To Feedstock Availability Remain
- Article: SSA Biofuels: Underdeveloped Industry With Potential For Growth But Obstacles Ahead
- Article: GCC Biofuels: Investment To Grow In The Medium-To-Long Term Amid Ongoing Feedstock Constraints
Oil & Gas Spending Diverges As Global Growth Slows
BMI’s latest analysis explores the outlook for global oil and gas capital spending in 2025. While total capex is forecast to grow by just 0.7% to USD 636.4 billion, regional and company-level trends are diverging. MENA will remain the main engine of growth, with strong project pipelines in the GCC offsetting cuts elsewhere. By contrast, European upstream faces downside risks from weaker oil prices, while Asia’s downstream sector continues to contract. Among oil majors, spending is expected to decline slightly in 2025, with BP among the firms refocusing on core hydrocarbons. BMI continues to track how shifting market conditions and corporate strategies are shaping global investment flows.
Low-Carbon Tech: Momentum Builds, But Barriers Remain
BMI’s latest energy technology insights highlight mixed progress across key low-carbon sectors. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are attracting renewed interest, with GE Hitachi, NuScale and Rolls-Royce advancing towards commercialisation and potential US policy shifts aiming to shorten licensing timelines. In the US carbon capture sector, continued tax credit support underpins long-term growth, but uncertainty over funding and regulation presents near-term risks. Solar PV remains the most commercially mature technology in the energy transition, with gains in module efficiency and falling costs reinforcing its dominance over CSP. Despite growing momentum, the pace of deployment will remain uneven as policy, cost and infrastructure constraints persist.
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