Baltic Security Under Pressure

Welcome to the best of BMI, the BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis monthly newsletter featuring latest research highlights from our analysts globally.

Despite a low likelihood of direct military conflict, the Baltic states remain vulnerable to Russian grey zone and hybrid tactics that exploit institutional gaps and societal fault lines. Sabotage risks and disinformation campaigns continue to challenge national resilience, with operational disruptions posing real costs to businesses and infrastructure. While Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have made notable strides in cybersecurity, energy independence, and legal reform, their preparedness remains uneven. BMI’s analysis underscores the strategic imperative for sustained investment and NATO coordination to deter malign influence and safeguard regional stability.

• Article: Grey Zone Operations: Baltic States Underprepared to Counter Sabotage Threat
• Article: The Military Threat: Why Russia Is Unlikely To Invade The Baltic States
• Article: The Hybrid Threat: Baltic Countries Have Mixed Success Confronting Russian Tactics

Asia's Diplomatic Balancing Acts

Regional diplomacy in Asia remains defined by cautious engagement and strategic hedging amid shifting geopolitical fault lines. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s record turnout masked limited policy outcomes, as internal rivalries—particularly involving India, China, and Pakistan—undermined cohesion. India continues to walk a fine line between East and West, resisting alignment with China and Russia. Meanwhile, Central Asian states are deepening ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan following Russia’s recognition, though infrastructure ambitions face persistent security and governance hurdles. Tensions between India and Pakistan remain high despite a ceasefire, with hardened positions and minimal diplomatic safeguards raising the risk of renewed confrontation. BMI’s coverage highlights the region’s complex balancing acts and the fragile nature of its strategic alignments.

• Article: SCO Summit 2025: Global South Solidarity Belies Modest Outcomes
• Article: Central Asia Navigates Complex Engagement With Taliban-Led Afghanistan
• Article: India-Pakistan: High Risk Of Renewed Confrontation Despite Ceasefire

Low Carbon Tech: Momentum Builds, But Barriers Persist

Global momentum behind low-carbon technologies is accelerating, yet structural and policy barriers continue to constrain scale and impact. Carbon dioxide removal solutions like direct air capture and bioenergy with CCS show promise but lack sufficient regulatory incentives to unlock investment. In maritime transport, tightening emissions rules are driving adoption of biofuels and e-methanol, though scalability and infrastructure gaps remain. Battery innovation is diversifying, with sodium-ion chemistry emerging as a cost-effective alternative for urban mobility and supply chain resilience, especially in Asia. Offshore wind, however, faces financing hurdles, as seen in Japan, where revenue uncertainty undermines project viability. BMI’s analysis highlights the need for stronger policy frameworks and market signals to translate technological potential into climate-aligned outcomes.

• Article: Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies To Grow But Will Need Governments To Introduce Incentives
• Article: Maritime Transport To Accelerate Transition Towards Low Carbon Fuels Amid Tight Emission Regulations
• Article: Sodium-ion Batteries To See Rising Market Opportunity Despite Lithium-ion Dominance
• Article: Mitsubishi’s Withdrawal in Japan Underscores Asia’s Offshore Wind Financing Challenge

Africa’s Agribusiness Landscape in Focus

Africa’s agribusiness sector is navigating a mix of opportunity and risk, shaped by shifting trade dynamics, climate variability, and regulatory pressures. East African coffee producers are set for growth amid rising domestic demand and supportive policies, but looming EU deforestation rules pose export risks. Mainland China’s pledge to extend zero-tariff treatment to all African countries could unlock new agribusiness potential, especially for non-LDCs, though non-tariff barriers remain a hurdle. In Southern Africa, improved weather and policy support are expected to boost corn production and ease food insecurity, though localised conflict and climate volatility—such as a potential La Niña—could disrupt gains. BMI’s coverage underscores the importance of proactive policy, regional coordination and climate resilience to unlock long-term agribusiness potential.

• Article: Bullish Outlook For East African Coffee Producers, Downside Risks Remain
• Article: Mainland China’s Pledge To Implement Zero-Tariff Treatment For All African Countries – Implications For The Agribusiness Sector
• Article: Southern Africa Corn Production Will Ease Food Security Concerns Across Most Of The Region, Localised Risks Remain

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