EPRA (European Public Real Estate Association) reposted this
The risk of not acting now outweighs the risk of retrofitting. (And why the US are doing it better.) The market forces now favour people who upgrade early. Waiting is the bigger risk. I was at the EPRA (European Public Real Estate Association) conference yesterday and Guy Grainger opened with an interesting talk. Across global cities, five forces are now pushing obsolete buildings into a corner: 1. Tenant demand is exploding. Around one in four future leasing requirements will link directly to climate or energy performance. But there is almost no supply of energy smart, low carbon space. 2. Energy economics have changed. Volatility has become structural. Energy efficient buildings are simply better businesses now. Not for “net zero” but for “my operating costs are out of control” reasons. 3. Regulation is waking up. Performance standards already cover around a quarter of global real estate. More cities are adding carbon caps, EPC style rules and minimum energy thresholds. (Unlike sustainable finance regs, none of this is slowing down.) 4. Physical risk is starting to bite. Insurance costs are up nearly 90 percent in five years. In some markets, insurers and grid operators are already pulling back from flood and storm exposure. 5. Investment momentum is back. Capital is flowing into markets where sustainability upgrades generate real returns. Liquidity has returned and investors are rewarding assets that can be made compliant and competitive. Put those forces together and you get a simple conclusion: **Seventy percent of obsolete stock sits in markets where the business case to upgrade is already strong.** And yet… many owners in Europe are frozen. Not because the capex is scary, but because acknowledging the true value of the building requires a write down first. US investors take the hit early and move. Europeans wait…and wait. If you upgrade early, you compete. If you wait, you discount. Obsolescence is a balance sheet event in slow motion. Ignore it at your peril!