UX Researcher @ Perceptual User Experience Lab | Human-AI Interaction Researcher @ University of Arkansas at Little Rock
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A lot of us still rely on simple trend lines or linear regression when analyzing how user behavior changes over time. But in recent years, the tools available to us have evolved significantly. For behavioral and UX data - especially when it's noisy, nonlinear, or limited - there are now better methods to uncover meaningful patterns. Machine learning models like LSTMs can be incredibly useful when you’re trying to understand patterns that unfold across time. They’re good at picking up both short-term shifts and long-term dependencies, like how early frustration might affect engagement later in a session. If you want to go further, newer models that combine graph structures with time series - like graph-based recurrent networks - help make sense of how different behaviors influence each other. Transformers, originally built for language processing, are also being used to model behavior over time. They’re especially effective when user interactions don’t follow a neat, regular rhythm. What’s interesting about transformers is their ability to highlight which time windows matter most, which makes them easier to interpret in UX research. Not every trend is smooth or gradual. Sometimes we’re more interested in when something changes - like a sudden drop in satisfaction after a feature rollout. This is where change point detection comes in. Methods like Bayesian Online Change Point Detection or PELT can find those key turning points, even in noisy data or with few observations. When trends don’t follow a straight line, generalized additive models (GAMs) can help. Instead of fitting one global line, they let you capture smooth curves and more realistic patterns. For example, users might improve quickly at first but plateau later - GAMs are built to capture that shape. If you’re tracking behavior across time and across users or teams, mixed-effects models come into play. These models account for repeated measures or nested structures in your data, like individual users within groups or cohorts. The Bayesian versions are especially helpful when your dataset is small or uneven, which happens often in UX research. Some researchers go a step further by treating behavior over time as continuous functions. This lets you compare entire curves rather than just time points. Others use matrix factorization methods that simplify high-dimensional behavioral data - like attention logs or biometric signals - into just a few evolving patterns. Understanding not just what changed, but why, is becoming more feasible too. Techniques like Gaussian graphical models and dynamic Bayesian networks are now used to map how one behavior might influence another over time, offering deeper insights than simple correlations. And for those working with small samples, new Bayesian approaches are built exactly for that. Some use filtering to maintain accuracy with limited data, and ensemble models are proving useful for increasing robustness when datasets are sparse or messy.