THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF CROP WEATHER VARIABLES ON THE U.S. AVERAGE YIELD OF SOYBEANS by Scott Irwin SUMMARY: Whenever there is a wide range of weather conditions across time and space, as there has been this year, there is a great deal of interest in which weather variables were the most important in determining soybean yields. While there is a general understanding of the importance of different weather variables on soybean yield, there is less understanding about the relative magnitude of such impacts. In this article, a crop weather model is used to estimate the relative impacts of important weather variables on the U.S. average yield of soybeans. The crop weather regression model uses data for 1980 through 2022 to relate the U.S. average soybeans yield to a time trend, the percentage of the crop planted late, and an array of weather variables. We then consider a one-standard deviation range in impact for each of the crop weather variables to standardize for differences in the variation of each variable. The analysis shows that the “big three” for determining the U.S. average yield of soybeans are August precipitation, July precipitation, and late planting, with August precipitation just edging out July precipitation for the top ranking. About two-thirds of the time, the impact of either August or July precipitation on the U.S. average yield of soybeans is in a range of slightly more than two bushels per acre. Hence, both August and July precipitation are “golden numbers” for U.S. soybean yields. LINK: https://lnkd.in/gKVEZMg7 #soybeans #production #weather #planting #cropyield #cropsupply
Agriculture Management Practices
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"The livestock below the ground should be as heavy as the livestock above it." — André Voisin, Grass Productivity That's sort of cowboy math, but let's keep it simple. Voisin's observation goes beyond simple—but it's one of the earliest mantras that sticks in my mind. He was among the first to teach us that pastures go beyond nourishing cattle but also the unseen ecosystem of earthworms, microbes, and roots—our livestock below the soil. He may sound a little dated (no mention of the mycorrhizal network), but he was one of the giants on whose shoulders we needed to stand so we can now sound smart and stuff when talking grass and soil. Voisin's four principles: 1. Adequate Rest: Pastures need time to recover and replenish. 2. Short Grazing Duration: Limit grazing, allowing plants time to regrow. 3. Nutritional Prioritization: Provide high-quality forage to animals with the most significant nutritional needs. 4. Optimal Stocking Density: Avoid overgrazing or underutilizing. Still controversial. His systems were complex and "precise". They would be impossible to manage if you weren't André Voisin. "Experts" opine that principles need adaptation and are challenging to apply to every climate and landscape. I think now we refer to that as context. Voisin was a revolutionary ecological thinker, nonetheless. He was early to show that regenerative practices are an art demanding profound observation and understanding—not a one-size-fits-all solution. Voisin's next book, Soil, Grass, and Cancer, highlights the profound connection between soil health, plant vitality, livestock resilience, and human well-being. He warned that imbalances in soil cascade beyond pasture, leading to weakened immune systems and chronic diseases like cancer in humans. His insights challenged the shortcuts of industrial agriculture, advocating instead for practices that restore and replenish soil ecosystems. Voisin's vision extended from the microscopic world of soil microbes to the macro scale of human health and societal well-being. He understood that the vitality of soil ecosystems influences not only the nutritional quality of food but also the economic and cultural health of communities. For Voisin, regenerating the soil was a pathway to regenerating society, creating a feedback loop where healthier land supports stronger, more resilient populations. Voisin's work teaches us that the health of the soil cannot be isolated from the whole of well...nearly everything important—agriculture as an interconnected web. By nurturing the foundational elements of this system, particularly the soil and its microbial life, we can create a ripple effect of regeneration that supports not just ecosystems but thriving communities and healthier futures for us all.
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Follow The Electrons: Redox Processes as Central Drivers of Soil, Plant, and Microbial Health Olivier Husson’s work has revolutionized our understanding of redox (reduction-oxidation) processes as central drivers of soil, plant, and microbial health. Alongside pH (which measures proton availability), redox potential (Eh, which measures electron availability) has been proposed as a critical component for assessing soil, plant, and animal health. Both parameters are analyzed together to provide a much fuller picture of nutrient availability, biological activity, and disease resistance than pH alone. Husson’s research shows that electron exchanges (redox reactions) are fundamental to life processes, regulating energy flow in soils, plants, and microbes. This “little electric current,” as Nobel laureate Szent-Györgyi described it, is maintained by sunlight and is essential for cellular energy and metabolic balance. Impact on Soil and Plant Health: Studies have demonstrated that soil Eh-pH conditions directly influence: · Microbial populations and activity · Nutrient solubility and uptake (including nitrogen and phosphorus) · The plant’s ability to resist diseases and pests · The buffering capacity of soils, especially through organic matter and biological activity Disease and Stress Response: Specific Eh-pH conditions can either suppress or promote plant pathogens and pests. Plants under stress or attack shift their redox balance, which in turn regulates gene expression and defense mechanisms. Practical Applications: The measuring of both Eh and pH in soils and plants has been proposed to guide regenerative agricultural practices. This dual measurement is intended to help farmers optimize crop nutrition, disease resistance, and overall system health. This work is helping in understanding how to shift toward more holistic, regenerative approaches in agriculture.
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🌍 Health equity in coffee and cocoa supply chains isn't just good ethics …it's good business. Want to know the shocking ROI numbers? A recent study showed investing in health initiatives for coffee farmers led to: • 20% increase in productivity • 30% reduction in worker turnover • 15% boost in product quality • 25% fewer sick days • 40% higher employee satisfaction But here's the real kicker: Companies investing in farmer healthcare saw their reputation scores jump by 35%. The math is simple: Healthier farmers = Better coffee = Higher profits Here's what successful programs include: • Basic healthcare access • Clean water initiatives • Maternal care • Mental health support • Safe working conditions • Nutritional programs The coffee industry has a choice: Continue ignoring health inequities or invest in their people and profit. Which side of history will your company be on?
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Part 2 🌿 Farming Beyond the Field: Harnessing Nature to Shape Our Climate 🌧️ I recently had the privilege of joining Wayne Ebersole on the Outsyde Podcast to discuss a topic close to my heart: how farmers can manage water cycles and even increase rainfall through regenerative practices and ecosystem management. 🚜💧 Here are some key takeaways from our conversation: 1️⃣ The Power of Cover: Keeping soil covered year-round isn’t just about preventing erosion—it’s about fostering conditions that capture moisture, reduce dust storms, and improve soil temperature. Farmers can mitigate failed rainstorms (haboobs) by maintaining green, living cover and adopting no-till practices. 2️⃣ Bioaerosols & Rainfall: Did you know every blade of grass and tree leaf releases bioaerosols like Pseudomonas syringae, which seed clouds at warm temperatures? Healthy vegetation doesn’t just grow crops—it seeds rainfall. 🌱☁️ 3️⃣ The Local Resilience of Regen Ag: Regenerative farms like Gabe Brown’s in North Dakota and Brad McIntyre’s in Idaho demonstrate unmatched resilience. From drought resistance to flood absorption, their farms thrive under extreme conditions—while neighbors struggle. 4️⃣ Fixing Our Food System: It’s time to break the cycle of subsidizing sickness. Current systems prop up nutrient-poor foods laden with chemicals while regenerative systems focus on nutrient density, soil health, and local food economies. Models like Singing Frogs Farm in California are paving the way with their high-yield, no-till approaches. 5️⃣ Regeneration is the Real Climate Solution: Regenerative agriculture doesn’t just reduce emissions; it restores the water cycle, rebuilds soil, and increases climate resilience—all while feeding people better and healthier. This is the sustainable path forward. 🌍 One particularly memorable part of the discussion? Comparing the dust storms in Idaho to a “Gandalf moment” in The Lord of the Rings: “You shall not pass!” The dust literally repels rain while the uncovered ground exacerbates climate extremes. 🌀 💡 What’s next? As we discussed, these solutions are scalable, profitable, and accessible. Whether you’re a farmer, policymaker, or passionate advocate, regenerative practices can transform our planet—and our future. 🎧 Catch the Full Episode: Listen to the full episode here, where we explore these concepts in-depth, including how restoring the Great Green Wall in Africa could mitigate hurricanes and why nutrient-dense food starts with healthy soil. Thank you Wayne for hosting. Wayne Ebersole Big Sky Capital Group LLC AgReserves, Inc. Singing Frogs Farm EcoRestoration Alliance Soil4Climate Inc. #RegenerativeAgriculture #ClimateSolutions #WaterCycle #Sustainability #SoilHealth #Farming #FoodSystems https://lnkd.in/gaFQhhmy
Episode 15 Part 2 of 2 Natalie Fleming Does farming affect the weather; where is regen ag headed?
https://www.youtube.com/
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Soil functions as a complex electrochemical matrix where electron transfer processes govern nutrient availability, microbial activity, and plant physiological responses. Understanding and managing this electrical dimension represents the frontier of agricultural science. This electrical activity is measured through soil redox potential, which ranges from highly oxidized (+600 mV) to highly reduced (-300 mV). This invisible electrical gradient determines which nutrients plants can access. Think of soil redox like climate zones: different microbial communities thrive in specific electrical environments, just as distinct plant communities occupy tropical, temperate, or arctic regions. Each zone supports specialized metabolic pathways, and the electrical state of your soil directly determines which nutrients are "switched on" for plant uptake. Phosphorus—critical for plant energy systems—reaches peak availability between 150-200 mV, a sweet spot achieved by balanced management practices. Plants growing in electrically balanced soils develop superior nutritional profiles. Field measurements show crops from soils with stable redox conditions (±75 mV fluctuation) contain 15-25% higher mineral concentrations than those from unstable systems (±175 mV). Living roots dramatically influence soil electricity. Deep-rooted plants can alter redox conditions 3 feet deep in the soil profile, while legumes create unique electrical microsites 50-150 mV lower than surrounding soil—perfect for nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Minimizing soil disturbance preserves these natural electrical gradients. Growing diverse plants prevents extreme electrical conditions. Measured redox fluctuations in diverse plantings typically remain within ±100 mV of optimal ranges, while monocultures demonstrate drastic swings exceeding ±200 mV with corresponding nutrient imbalances. Nobel Laureate Albert Szent-Györgyi perfectly captured this connection: "What drives life is a little electric current, kept up by the sunshine." Plants efficiently capturing this electrical energy demonstrate 15-30% greater photosynthetic efficiency. The electrical state of your soil also influences greenhouse gases. Proper redox management reduces nitrous oxide emissions and methane production, with well-managed systems achieving 30-45% lower greenhouse gas intensities compared to electrically imbalanced soils. This electrochemical perspective explains why singular "silver bullet" interventions often fail while integrated approaches succeed. Optimal soil electrical conditions require coordinated management of carbon, physical structure, water, and microbial communities. By creating conditions that optimize energy transfer from sun to soil to plant to plate, we can achieve higher quality food and more resilient production systems.
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Dear farmers, You have to know your soil status, including pH and organic nutrients, before planting for a good yield. Soil is the foundation of your farm, and understanding its health is the first step toward a successful harvest. Testing your soil helps you determine the right crops to plant, the correct fertilizers to use, and the best farming practices to apply. Without this knowledge, you risk poor yields, wasted resources, and unnecessary expenses. Why Soil Testing Matters ● pH Levels Impact Growth – If your soil is too acidic or too alkaline, plants won’t absorb nutrients properly. Most crops thrive in a pH range of 6.0 to 7.5. Unbalanced pH levels can stunt growth, reduce yields, and make crops more vulnerable to diseases. By testing your soil's pH, you ensure that your plants can take in essential nutrients for healthy development. ● Organic Matter Boosts Productivity – Healthy soil contains organic nutrients that improve fertility, water retention, and microbial activity. When soil lacks organic matter, plants struggle to grow, even with fertilizers. Adding compost, manure, and cover crops helps maintain soil structure, retain moisture, and provide essential minerals for plant growth. ● Prevents Overuse of Fertilizers – Many farmers apply fertilizers without knowing if their soil actually needs them. Excess fertilizer can damage crops, reduce soil quality, and contaminate water sources. By testing your soil, you can apply the right amount of fertilizer, saving money while protecting the environment. ● Maximizes Yield and Profitability – A well-maintained soil leads to better crop production, higher market value, and greater profits. Healthy soil provides the nutrients and stability that crops need to thrive, ensuring consistent and high-quality harvests year after year. Take Action Today ● Get Your Soil Tested – Visit an agricultural extension office or use a soil testing kit to check pH and nutrient levels. Soil testing is a simple but powerful tool that can transform your farm. ● Apply the Right Soil Amendments – Based on test results, use lime to correct acidity, organic compost to boost nutrients, and crop rotation to maintain fertility. ● Monitor Regularly – Soil conditions change over time, so make soil testing a routine practice for sustainable farming. Healthy soil means a healthy farm. Know your soil, feed it well, and watch your harvest grow! #TheMugabofarmer #FeedAfrica
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Is the SOC:clay ratio a useful soil health metric that informs your management practice? I came across this commentary paper by Sauzet et al., which delves into the efficacy of the soil organic carbon to clay (SOC:clay) ratio as a metric for evaluating soil structure vulnerability. This commentary responds to critiques and offers insights into how this ratio can serve as a reliable indicator of soil structural quality. Points of Interest: ➡ The SOC:clay ratio is established as a key metric for soil quality, with thresholds indicating soil structural conditions from very good (>1:8) to degraded (<1:13), which helps assess soil vulnerability independently of local management practices. ➡ Poeplau and Don (2023) critiqued the SOC:clay ratio for being biased, especially in soils with extreme clay contents. They proposed an alternative metric based on actual versus expected SOC levels derived from local data. However, Sauzet et al. argue that this alternative fails to adequately consider soil structure quality. ➡ The paper emphasizes that while the SOC:clay ratio may not be universally applicable across all soil types (e.g., sandy or clayey soils), it remains a robust indicator for many agricultural soils. ➡ Differences in sampling depth can affect the evaluation of SOC:clay ratios. Poeplau and Don’s data set, which included deeper soil layers (0-30 cm), may not provide an accurate comparison with studies focusing on the topsoil (5-10 cm) where tillage and organic matter are more influential. ➡ The SOC:clay ratio can inform better agricultural practices by identifying soils with high structural vulnerability. This insight can guide interventions to increase SOC content, thereby improving soil health and resilience against stresses. ➡ The SOC:clay ratio has significant implications for soil health policies, such as the European Soil Monitoring Law. Introducing metrics based on soil quality rather than just SOC levels can lead to more effective soil health management and policy-making. The SOC:clay ratio appears to be a valuable metric for assessing soil structural vulnerability, providing insights that go beyond mere SOC content. While the metric’s applicability may need refinement for certain soil types, its role in guiding agricultural practices and informing policy is crucial. By focusing on soil structure quality, this ratio helps ensure sustainable soil management and long-term agricultural productivity. Hope you find the information useful! #soilscience #soilcarbon #soilhealth #soilmetrics #soilhealthmatters #whyward
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Farming, especially regenerative organic farming, is not for the faint at heart and wouldn’t be nearly so challenging if we had even a little control over the weather. Last week we replanted corn due to drought conditions causing roughly only 10% of the kernels to sprout and grow. Until last week, we had not a soil moistening rain for nearly 12 weeks. Planting into the rolled down biomass of winter cover crops only amplified the challenge due to decreased seed to soil contact caused by hair pinning and dry hard soil. In hindsight, we should have waited to plant till we received some rain to have sufficient soil moisture which would have allowed for better seed placement and moisture to get the crop sprouted and off to a good start. Note in the picture the few lonely surviving corn stalks. The timing of rolling down/terminating the winter cover crop is without flexibility and you can also see in the picture that may be the only thing we got right this year, lol. We have a nearly 100% termination of the winter cover crop (without viable seed development) in the roll down process and with the thick mat covering all the soil will be able to hold moisture much longer. On the bright side, the replant looks good, and it is only the first of July which should be sufficient time for the newly planted 93-day maturity corn to fully develop. Consulting with several other organic crop producers, they said that more times than not, the replant turns out to be their better yields. I can see how that is possible due to proper soil moisture allowing for improved seed placement and with the rolled down biomass having a few weeks to dry down, we saw an improved ability to penetrate the mat with minimized hair pinning. And so far, thanks to a strong cover crop yield, the mat is holding the weeds back sufficiently but losing a valuable month of growing season, we just hope it holds until the corn canopies. I will report on the crops sprouting success and weed pressures when the corn is around the v4/v5 stage. Until then, cheers and chin up to all the farmers facing challenging conditions this year! #regenerativefarming #quicklyadapt #persistance #alwayslearning
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Is this NYT article right?? “#Coffee prices are at a 50-year high. Producers aren’t celebrating." Our take: 1) First, are coffee #farmers getting higher prices? In many places, YES. We quantified this (the article did not) with surveys in 13 growing regions, which showed farmers earning premiums of 39% - 85% over last year. See more info in my last post, from Paul Stewart. 2) But something surprising seems to be happening in #Ethiopia, a top global coffee producer. Here, farmers reported getting 26% LOWER prices. Why? Exporters are facing big working capital crunches (which the article notes). We found them passing capital processing costs of as high as 15-20% on to farmers. Another factor may be wet mills paying above-market rates last year and running out of cash. 3) The article correctly notes that #climatechange is increasing prices through scarcity caused by droughts, rising temperatures, and erratic weather. Farmers are certainly right to be worried about that. BUT there are many promising ways for farmers to mitigate this impact. No magic bullets, but these have been very effective in our experience: 🌱 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 “𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻” 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀 – including tailored fertilizer and other recommendations – that help farmers protect against hazards like #leafrust, which spreads with higher temps and more rain. (Leaf rust reduced the yields of one farmer in the article by ~70%.) 🧬 Helping farmers select the 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀 based on climate projection mapping. Improved DNA testing helps farmers get the right seedlings. ⚒️ Incentives --like farm tools! -- to encourage farmers to 𝗮𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 to improve their economic and climate resilience, e.g. coffee tree stumping. It's a complex landscape for farmers fighting #poverty through cash crops, like coffee. But there are enormous opportunities as well. (Also, now you can sound smart when your friend asks you about that recent coffee prices article.)