Tips for Navigating Decision-Making Processes

📚 Takeaways from July's Book-Of-The-Month "Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work" by Chip & Dan Heath 📚 Four Villains of Decision Making 1) Narrow framing We tend to have a Mental Spotlight so the things in the spotlight are highly visible and we miss the things outside of it. Any “whether or not to do X” or “should I do X or Y” framing should set off warning bells: you may be missing options. Widen your options. How can you expand your set of choices? Think “And” not “Or”. Consider opportunity cost: what else can I do instead of X?  Apply Vanishing Option test (what if the current option was unavailable?).  Multitrack - consider more than 1 option simultaneously. This helps you understand the Shape of a problem a lot more than Narrow Framing. Beware of “Sham options”. Find someone who’s solved your problem: look outside, look inside, ladder-up via analogies (“this problem I’m trying to solve has the shape of another problem that has been solved”). 2) Confirmation bias We develop quick beliefs about a situation then look for data to bolster it. Reality-test your assumptions. Ask disconfirming questions. How can you get outside your head and collect information you can trust? Consider the Opposite: what would have to be true for that option to be best?  Zoom out, Zoom in. Don’t trust the averages, understand the percentiles (what’s your p0 case? p100?). Find Base Rates for your decision (in the past how many people who did X succeeded?) Run small experiments to test your theory. Go out and try things! 3) Short-term emotion. Attain distance before deciding. Often an outside perspective without historical background or knowledge of politics is good. Our decisions are influenced by (a) mere exposure, things that are familiar to us, (b) loss aversion: losses are more painful than gains are pleasant. This leads to status-quo as a default decision. Hard decisions are often signs of a conflict among your Core Priorities. Identify and enshrine your Core Priorities to make it easier to resolve conflict. [ Side note: this is why at Amazon we use Tenets, as a decision framework ] 4) Overconfidence People think they know more than they do about the future. Prepare to be wrong. The future is not a “point”, a single scenario we must predict. It’s a range. Bookend it considering a range of outcomes, some positive, some negative. Lower bookend: “It’s a year from now. Our decision has failed. Why?” Upper bookend: “It’s a year from now. Our decision was a success. Were we ready to handle it and scale?” Set a Tripwire - snaps you from autopilot. Particularly important when change is very gradual. Add Deadlines or Partitions (“I’ll only spend $1MM out of my $10MM budget then reassess”). Tripwires can be triggered by patterns, not just metrics or dates. Decisions made by groups have an additional burden (careful with social cohesion) but bargaining may lead to a better, fairer decision overall. #bookofthemonth #carlosbookofthemonth

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠": 𝐀 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 We live in an age of boundless information, yet making sound decisions often feels harder than ever. How can we navigate this complexity and make choices that lead to better outcomes? "Third Millennium Thinking" introduces a transformative approach to decision"𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠"-making that applies to every facet of life—from navigating professional challenges to fostering meaningful personal relationships. Here are some of the standout insights that resonated with me: 🔹 Embrace Probabilistic Thinking: Move beyond black-and-white thinking. Learn to assess probabilities, understand confidence levels, and account for uncertainty to make more informed decisions. 🔹 Recognize and Mitigate Bias: We all carry biases that can distort our thinking. By identifying tendencies like confirmation bias, we can actively counteract them—such as blinding ourselves to outcomes during evaluations. 🔹 Value Intellectual Humility: Overconfidence can derail even the best intentions. Intellectual humility—remaining open to evidence and other perspectives—is key to effective decision-making. 🔹 Seek Reliable Expertise: Differentiating between true experts and pseudo-experts is a critical skill. Evaluate whether experts demonstrate mastery of scientific tools and techniques. 🔹 Understand Causal Reasoning: Causal relationships are the backbone of problem-solving. Recognize their complexity, remain cautious, and factor in uncertainty when drawing conclusions. 🔹 Harness the Wisdom of Crowds: Groups with diverse perspectives and shared tools often outperform individuals in decision-making. Constructive deliberation fosters better outcomes. 🔹 Incorporate Values in Decisions: Deliberative techniques, such as polling, help bridge divides and bring values into clearer focus for collaborative solutions. 🔹 Cultivate Scientific Optimism: Balance healthy skepticism with a forward-looking mindset. Progress comes from iterative improvement and resilience. 🔹 Master Fermi Problems: Quick estimations and bounding techniques are invaluable for tackling complexity. They simplify challenges and foster actionable insights. 🔹 Build Trust Networks: Collaborative decision-making thrives on trust. Build relationships that encourage open-mindedness and mutual respect. "Third Millennium Thinking" challenges us to become more reflective, collaborative, and effective thinkers. These tools can shape a brighter future for all. What are your thoughts on these ideas? Have you encountered similar frameworks in your professional or personal life? Share your insights in the comments—I’d love to hear your perspective!

Have you ever let your emotions drive your decision-making in your business, and later regret the decision you made? I am sure we can all relate at some point. Well, I have a solution to prevent emotional decision-making from happening in the future. When I work with my executive clients, one of the first skills we work on is self-awareness of one's emotions. On a scale from 0-10, with 10 feeling that emotion the strongest, when your emotional state is a 7 or above, your logic drops. This is when you don’t want to make any major business decisions or have important interactions. And guess what, this also applies to feeling happy! Imagine a huge deal goes through and you’re a 10 out of 10. You are probably likely to give everyone raises, which you might quickly regret. So, when you are a 7 or above, you need to apply skills to get to a 6 or below. Then you are ready to jump back into the business world. Here are 5 skills you can apply to lower your emotional state: 1. Practice circular breathing for 5-10 min. 4 sec in, 4 sec hold, 4 sec out, 4 sec hold. 2. Take a cold shower for 5 minutes. 3. Go for a 10-20 min non-judgmental walk. Just state facts of what you see on your walk. 4. Do 5-10 min of light exercise. 5. Find a quiet space and meditate. Close your eyes and visualize your thoughts as leafs floating by you. Let go of those judgmental thoughts to clear your mind. Pro-tip: Practice mindfulness daily to help reduce the peak in emotions and gain a higher level of self-awareness. Also, this concept can be utilized if you are struggling with burnout or mental challenges. It can help you improve your emotional state and relationships at times of adversity. Ready to become a master of self-awareness and decision-making? → 📌 comment Follow Alex Wisch for more content on #leadership, #mindset, and achieving #PeakPerformance.