Mental Models to Improve Decision-Making

7 mental models every manager needs. Shift the way you think: 1/ First Principles Thinking → Strip down to core truths → Ignore "how it's always been done" → Build from ground zero → Ask: What must be true for this to work? 2/ Second-Order Thinking → Every action has consequences → Then those consequences have consequences → Think three moves ahead → Ask: Then what happens? And after that? 3/ Inversion → Plan for failure, not just success → Spot risks before they kill you → Flip problems to see blind spots → Ask: How could this all go wrong? 4/ Bottleneck Analysis → Your system's only as strong as its weakest link → Don't fix everything—fix what's blocking flow → Small fixes in right spots = massive gains → Find where work slows, then attack that point 5/ Feedback Loops → Without signals, you're flying blind → Fast feedback = faster growth → Build systems that talk back → Create daily cycles of learn and adjust 6/ Leverage Points → Not all work moves the needle → 20% of actions drive 80% of growth → Find your force multipliers → Double down on what actually works 7/ OODA Loop → Perfect plans die in chaos → Speed beats perfection → Observe, Orient, Decide, Act → Keep cycling until you win You can't scale chaos. But you can scale systems. Which model will you implement first? ♻️ Repost and follow Justin Bateh for more.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠": 𝐀 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 We live in an age of boundless information, yet making sound decisions often feels harder than ever. How can we navigate this complexity and make choices that lead to better outcomes? "Third Millennium Thinking" introduces a transformative approach to decision"𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠"-making that applies to every facet of life—from navigating professional challenges to fostering meaningful personal relationships. Here are some of the standout insights that resonated with me: 🔹 Embrace Probabilistic Thinking: Move beyond black-and-white thinking. Learn to assess probabilities, understand confidence levels, and account for uncertainty to make more informed decisions. 🔹 Recognize and Mitigate Bias: We all carry biases that can distort our thinking. By identifying tendencies like confirmation bias, we can actively counteract them—such as blinding ourselves to outcomes during evaluations. 🔹 Value Intellectual Humility: Overconfidence can derail even the best intentions. Intellectual humility—remaining open to evidence and other perspectives—is key to effective decision-making. 🔹 Seek Reliable Expertise: Differentiating between true experts and pseudo-experts is a critical skill. Evaluate whether experts demonstrate mastery of scientific tools and techniques. 🔹 Understand Causal Reasoning: Causal relationships are the backbone of problem-solving. Recognize their complexity, remain cautious, and factor in uncertainty when drawing conclusions. 🔹 Harness the Wisdom of Crowds: Groups with diverse perspectives and shared tools often outperform individuals in decision-making. Constructive deliberation fosters better outcomes. 🔹 Incorporate Values in Decisions: Deliberative techniques, such as polling, help bridge divides and bring values into clearer focus for collaborative solutions. 🔹 Cultivate Scientific Optimism: Balance healthy skepticism with a forward-looking mindset. Progress comes from iterative improvement and resilience. 🔹 Master Fermi Problems: Quick estimations and bounding techniques are invaluable for tackling complexity. They simplify challenges and foster actionable insights. 🔹 Build Trust Networks: Collaborative decision-making thrives on trust. Build relationships that encourage open-mindedness and mutual respect. "Third Millennium Thinking" challenges us to become more reflective, collaborative, and effective thinkers. These tools can shape a brighter future for all. What are your thoughts on these ideas? Have you encountered similar frameworks in your professional or personal life? Share your insights in the comments—I’d love to hear your perspective!

Here are my favorite mental models and frameworks for marketers and ops professionals. The 5 WHYS Great for finding the true root cause of a problem or motivation of a customer. 1) Why was the email incorrect? 2) Why was the information inaccurate? 3) Why was it missed during QA? 4)Why isn’t the QA comprehensive? 5) Why don’t we come up with a better, more reliable QA process? RICE PRIORITIZATION A method for determining which initiatives will have more impact on customers; can also be used to determine which projects will have more business impact. Score each project based on Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort. Then use (R x I x C)/E to give you a final score to compare against the others. 80/20 RULE A phenomenon that is typically true across industries where 80% of your results come from only 20% of your activities. 80% of your leads come from 20% of your channels or campaigns, 80% of your revenue comes from 20% of your customers, and 80% of your operational impact comes from 20% of your projects. The takeaway? Use data to identify the crucial 20% of activities, and manage your time to ensure they are prioritized. 1 WAY & 2 WAY DOORS Great for decision-making. Is the decision you are considering reversible (2-way door)? If yes, you can decide quickly and with less data. If no, (1-way door) take your time and consider all options and potential consequences. SECOND-ORDER THINKING Refers to thinking beyond immediate, short-term solutions and thinking about secondary, long-term consequences. For example, if we run this discount, will our customers always expect it? Will our product be devalued over time? Will we be bringing on many customers that aren’t the right fit? How will our employees feel? MoSCoW PRIORITIZATION Great for tight deadlines or for bringing order to chaos. Divide your initiative or project into M = Must Have (the project fails without them), S = Should Have (need these in the long-term), C = Could Have (ancillary tasks or features that could be nice to have), and W = Won’t Have (consciously excluded due to resource limitations) Which have you tried with success? What will you try next? #marketing #martech #marketingoperations