Future climate variables in project planning

𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 Climate change increases not only the likelihood of hazards such as floods and storms but also their intensity and spatial reach. Since most infrastructure projects are designed for lifespans of up to a hundred years, it is essential to integrate climate risks into both design and maintenance planning. Traditionally, engineers have relied on historical data to estimate future risks. For example, the likely 100-year flood was calculated from past records, assuming that natural patterns remain constant. The core assumption behind this approach was that the future would behave like the past. This assumption held true until the late 20th century, when climate change began to invalidate it. The climate is now shifting too rapidly for the past to serve as a reliable guide. Therefore, climate change must be considered when estimating design parameters such as flood magnitude or peak discharge. For instance, the design flow for a dam spillway or the capacity of stormwater drains should account for future climate projections. Ignoring these changes can result in under-designed structures that fail under new conditions. As flood intensity increases, so does its spatial extent. Higher floods affect broader areas, expanding floodplains and putting new zones at risk. This expansion raises the cost of infrastructure development since higher safety factors or stronger materials are now required. Governments and institutions must allocate larger budgets for both constructing new infrastructure and maintaining existing ones. Existing infrastructure faces similar challenges. Structures built decades ago are now exposed to higher stresses than they were designed for, which increases the risk of deterioration and failure. This not only raises maintenance costs but also threatens human lives and economic stability. The dam break in Libya in 2023 is a tragic example. Beyond flooding, climate change alters river flows, reduces water availability, and increases the duration of dry seasons, affecting irrigation systems and hydropower generation. Urban drainage networks can be overwhelmed by intense storms, while rising temperatures reduce road lifespan and raise energy demand for cooling facilities. To conclude, it is now clear that the future will not resemble the past. Relying solely on historical data for infrastructure design is no longer practical. Engineers and policymakers must integrate climate projections into every stage of the infrastructure lifecycle. Doing so not only prevents failures but also protects public finances and ensures the sustainability of investments. Building climate-resilient infrastructure is therefore not only a technical requirement but also an economic necessity. The cost of inaction will always exceed the cost of preparedness.

🎯 The Hidden Foundation: Why Climate Risk Assessment Makes or Breaks NGO Projects After managing climate resilience initiatives across diverse contexts, I've discovered that the difference between projects that transform communities and those that simply spend budgets lies in one critical phase: comprehensive risk assessment. Most NGOs rush to solutions without truly understanding the risk landscape they're entering. The 4-Dimensional Risk Assessment Framework: 🌡️ Climate Hazard Mapping • Historical climate data analysis • Future projection scenarios • Extreme event frequency and intensity • Seasonal variability patterns 👥 Social Vulnerability Analysis • Demographic risk factors (age, gender, disability) • Economic exposure levels • Social network strength assessment • Cultural and linguistic considerations 🏗️ Infrastructure Vulnerability Review • Critical system dependencies • Redundancy and backup systems • Maintenance capacity evaluation • Technology appropriateness assessment 🌍 Ecosystem Services Evaluation • Natural buffer system health • Environmental degradation trends • Biodiversity loss impacts • Ecosystem restoration potential Critical insight: Risk assessment isn't a one-time activity—it's an ongoing process that should inform every project decision from design to implementation. What separates successful projects: They design for the worst-case scenario while building capacity for best-case outcomes. Practical tip: Spend 20% of your project design time on risk assessment. Communities that understand their full risk profile make better adaptation decisions. How do you approach risk assessment in your climate resilience projects? What risk factors do you find most organizations overlook? #ClimateRisk #NGOProjects #NGOs #ClimateResilience #RiskAssessment #ProjectDesign #project #projectmanagement #managers #sustainability #eu #europe #Africa #Egypt #Mediterranean

A new study may add a new variable in how we think about climate risk. While governments and businesses are preparing for a hotter future, scientists now warn of a parallel risk: sudden and extreme cooling in parts of the Northern Hemisphere. If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) collapses, Europe could face winter temperatures dropping to minus 48°C. Sea ice could spread as far south as the UK and Netherlands. Cities like Oslo may spend nearly half the year below #freezing, and Northwestern Europe could see more #violent_storms. This scenario becomes more likely as global temperatures approach the 2°C threshold. Even in a warmer world, the AMOC collapse would cause cold extremes that #infrastructure, #agriculture, and #societies are simply not built to handle. But if global warming continues unchecked and the planet reaches around +4°C, the heat would eventually overpower the cooling effect. In that world, Europe may avoid the deep freeze, but face even more devastating #heatwaves, #floods, and #sea_level_rise. We have to expand our #risk_models. Climate resilience planning must account for both #heat and unexpected #cold. It’s an interesting read: https://lnkd.in/dpPXeg_V #ClimateRisk #Resilience #Sustainability #OceanCurrents #SystemicRisk #CenterforSustainableFuture Maha Al Horr Rita Carvalho Valentin Lavaill

🌍 Predicting Climate Change in the Krishna River Basin (2000–2029) Using Machine Learning & Geospatial Analytics 🌡️🌱💧 Over the past few months, I undertook an end-to-end geospatial modeling project focused on analyzing and forecasting key climate variables across the Krishna River Basin. With climate change accelerating, understanding future trends in NDVI (vegetation health), LST (Land Surface Temperature), and Rainfall is critical for sustainable environmental planning and agricultural resilience. 🔧 Tools & Techniques Used: Python, JupyterLab, RasterIO, GeoPandas, Matplotlib Random Forest Regression for temporal prediction Time-series satellite raster processing (2000–2024) and forecasting up to 2029 Multi-variable alignment and standardization (NDVI, LST, Rainfall) Custom grid visualization and composite climate map plotting CRS-aware geospatial alignment and band correction Data cleaning, scaling, and prediction masking 📈 Created graphical climate trends for 30 years (2000–2029) 📊 Workflow Summary: Satellite Data Preprocessing: Harmonized 3 raster datasets (NDVI, LST, Rainfall) from 2000 to 2024 and filled missing bands using statistical approximation. Raster Alignment: Resampled all rasters to a common spatial resolution and projection using bilinear interpolation. Model Training: Trained three separate Random Forest models using historical data from 2000–2024 to forecast NDVI, LST, and Rainfall for 2025–2029. Future Prediction Mapping: Generated georeferenced climate maps for each predicted year with consistent spatial extent and visualized them using thematic cartography. Trend Analysis: Created time-series plots to compare historical and predicted changes over 30 years. 📌 Key Insights: 🌡️ LST is projected to increase consistently, indicating potential thermal stress in the basin. 🌿 NDVI shows fluctuating trends, suggesting variability in vegetation health linked to rainfall and temperature. ☔ Rainfall is predicted to show moderate variability, with implications for water resource planning. 📍 Study Area: Krishna River Basin 🧠 Model Accuracy: NDVI → R² = 0.9478, RMSE = 0.2163 LST → R² = 0.9786, RMSE = 0.1426 Rainfall → R² = 0.9998, RMSE = 0.0136 📸 All visualizations and prediction maps were programmatically generated using custom Python scripts and matplotlib-based plotting grids, with integrated north arrows, neatlines, and legends. 🔬 Prepared By: Abhinandan Banerjee 🌐 Passionate about GIS | Remote Sensing | Climate Modeling | Machine Learning

𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞: 𝐰𝐞’𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐛𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬—𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐞𝐬, 𝐰𝐞’𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦.⁣ ⁣ Antarctica is no longer a steady, frozen bastion. Recent science reveals staggering, rapid changes:⁣ • Sea ice is disappearing at double the rate of the Arctic since 2014—more than 120 km of retreat, far beyond natural variability .⁣ • Researchers warn this decline may already be irreversible, with cascading consequences on ice shelves, marine and land ecosystems, and global sea-level rise .⁣ • The Southern Ocean’s salt balance has flipped—unexpectedly getting saltier, weakening water layering, allowing deep heat to rise and accelerate ice melt in a dangerous feedback loop .⁣ • Our climate “engine” is sputtering: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)—vital for regulating global climate—is slowing, with projections showing a potential 20% decline by 2050 under high emissions, posing far-reaching impacts .⁣ • Beyond ocean physics, key Antarctic species are under threat as their habitats vanish .⁣ ⁣ 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐔𝐬 — 𝐄𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫⁣ ⁣ Planetary systems are shifting—and our built environment must evolve in response.⁣ • Coastal infrastructure will face rising tides, thawing permafrost, and shifting groundwater—all driven by polar instability.⁣ • Design specs, materials, and maintenance protocols must anticipate not incremental but non-linear environmental changes.⁣ • We’re dealing with a systems-level crisis: interconnected failures demand coordinated, forward-thinking responses—not siloed, reactive fixes.⁣ 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫—𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 🏗️ 🏡 🌍 ♻️ ⁣ ⁣ It’s time we step up—boldly, strategically, and urgently:⁣ • Integrate climate-resilience tools (e.g., sea-level rise models, structural feedback loops) into every project.⁣ • Lead in innovating resilient materials and adaptive design systems that withstand unpredictable extremes.⁣ • Advocate for policy and standards that prioritize long-term planetary stability over short-term gain.⁣ • Collaborate across borders—engineers, urban planners, climate scientists—to co-create infrastructure that sustains humanity and the planet.⁣ ⁣ Let’s shift from reaction to foresight. That’s not just good business—it’s our shared responsibility.⁣ ⁣ 🔗 ⁣ https://lnkd.in/e72iwNQD ⁣ ⁣ 🔎 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘺 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘴?⁣ ⁣ #SustainabilityLeadership ⁣ SDG 4, 8, 9, 11, 12 & 13 +

Surface reflectivity changes from carbon removal projects could rival their climate benefits. An important preprint asks questions in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies: changes in Earth's surface reflectivity (albedo) from large-scale CDR implementations could significantly impact climate, potentially overwhelming the intended cooling effects. This finding has major implications for climate intervention strategies currently being developed globally. The research demonstrates that when enhanced rock weathering (ERW) or marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is deployed at the scale needed to affect climate change, the alteration of surface reflectivity can produce radiative effects that greatly exceed those from CO2 removal over decades. Their calculations show that even a small change in albedo of parts per thousand has a radiative impact comparable to removing 10 tons of carbon per hectare. Most critically, the authors identify that these surface albedo modifications (SAM) can work for or against climate cooling goals, depending on the materials used. Dark mafic rocks could increase warming, while whitish minerals like wollastonite could enhance cooling. This work establishes the urgent need for careful consideration of albedo effects in CDR planning and highlights key research questions that must be addressed before large-scale deployment. Kudos to Brad Marston and Daniel Enrique Ibarra from Brown University.

🌍 Climate Change and Renewable Energy: Are Capacity Factors at Risk? The impacts of climate change are becoming hard to ignore: hotter summers, harsher winters, floods, wildfires, and shifting weather patterns that disrupt daily life. But here’s a critical question: are these changing climate patterns also reshaping the capacity factors of renewable energy? ⚡ Wind – Shifts in atmospheric circulation may increase resources in some regions while reducing them in others. Expect greater variability and more extremes. ☀️ Solar – Higher temperatures reduce panel efficiency; more dust, smoke, and aerosols can block radiation. Yet, some areas may see clearer skies. 💧 Hydro – Droughts limit output, while extreme rains challenge reservoir management. 🌾 Biomass – Crop yields and forest residues face stress from droughts and wildfires. 📌 Takeaway: Climate change doesn’t just drive the urgency for renewables—it also alters their performance. Energy planning must move beyond historical averages and embrace climate-resilient scenarios. 👉 The transition isn’t just about deploying clean tech. It’s about building systems flexible enough to thrive in a changing climate. #EnergyTransition #Decarbonization #ClimateChange #RenewableEnergy #SustainableFuture #EnergyResilience #CleanTech #ClimateAction