Climate science and evolving measurement methods

We have a new paper up on arXiv led by Zilu Meng on reconstructing Earth's climate over the last 1000+ years at seasonal resolution. This is the latest in a series of papers on the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which we are calling "LMR Seasonal." As for the paper I described a few weeks ago, we again use strongly coupled data assimilation and efficient emulators to consistently reconstruct components of the climate system. Here we assimilate climate proxy records from trees, corals, and ice cores in the season for which the proxy is sensitive. The result is a global reconstruction of atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice fields at seasonal resolution. Major findings include seasonal temperature trends over the last millennium that resemble orbital forcing with a seasonal lag, El Nino events that capture a range of tropical Pacific warming patterns, and declining Arctic sea-ice volume from a maximum in the early 19th century (figure below). The paper can be found here: https://lnkd.in/gQSQEi2q

NASA’s first quantum gravity sensor is headed to space - and it’s a breakthrough moment for climate science. The Quantum Gravity Gradiometer Pathfinder (QGGPf), developed by NASA, JPL, and collaborators, will measure changes in Earth’s gravity using ultra-cold atoms. Why does this matter for the climate innovation ecosystem? Because gravity tells a story. With this technology, we can detect shifts in underground water supplies, soil composition, and even the early signs of drought - all from space. These insights power better decision-making for everything from wildfire mitigation to agriculture, water access, and disaster preparedness. Even more exciting? Startups are helping build it. NASA’s project is fueled by partnerships with small businesses like AOSense, Infleqtion, and Vector Atomic. It’s proof that cutting-edge climate tech often begins in entrepreneurial labs. At Innosphere, this is exactly the kind of momentum we exist to accelerate. The QGGPf mission isn’t just about atoms and gravity - it’s about unlocking insights that can help us build a more resilient future. To the founders working in sensing, modeling, quantum, and beyond: Your work is critical, so keep pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.

The ocean needs a temperature check. With ocean warming putting coastal communities and ecosystems at risk from stronger storms and rising seas, @ClimateCentral created a new tool to measure how climate change is affecting sea surface temperatures on a daily basis. Climate Shift Index: Ocean (Ocean CSI), based on attribution science, will link human-caused climate change and ocean temperatures, which we know have been hotter every single month since April 2023. In one early case study, Ocean CSI shows that climate change made this summer’s Hurricane Beryl 400 times more likely to occur. Ocean CSI builds on Climate Central’s earlier effort to track how warming affects the weather around the world on a daily basis. And while sea surface temperatures may seem like a more distant concern than the weather we experience in our daily lives, the ocean is our life support system. It regulates climate and provides food and livelihoods for billions of people. As the ocean warms, it is less able to keep climate in check, nurture biodiversity or keep storms at bay. Thanks to Climate Central, we now have a precise and timely measure of ocean health. It’s up to all of us to take this information and act on it. https://lnkd.in/gbqRxgnX

Scientists Uncover Link Between Ocean Weather And Global Climate, Using Mechanical Rather Than Statistical Analysis -- https://lnkd.in/gjv_JWbc <-- shared technical article -- https://lnkd.in/gxxzPiaK <-- shared paper -- “An international team of scientists has found the first direct evidence linking seemingly random weather systems in the ocean with climate on a global scale. Led by Hussein Aluie, an associate professor in the University of Rochester's Department of Mechanical Engineering and staff scientist at the University's Laboratory for Laser Energetics, the team reported their findings in Science Advances [link above.] The ocean has weather patterns like what we experience on land, but on different time and length scales, says lead author Benjamin Storer, a research associate in Aluie's Turbulence and Complex Flow Group. A weather pattern on land might last a few days and be about 500 kilometers wide, while oceanic weather patterns such as swirling eddies last three to four weeks but are about one-fifth the size. "Scientists have long speculated that these ubiquitous and seemingly random motions in the ocean communicate with climate scales, but it has always been vague because it wasn't clear how to disentangle this complex system to measure their interactions," says Aluie. "We developed a framework that can do exactly that. What we found was not what people were expecting because it requires the mediation of the atmosphere." The group's goal was to understand how energy passes through different channels in the ocean throughout the planet. They used a mathematical method developed by Aluie in 2019, which was subsequently implemented into an advanced code by Storer and Aluie, that allowed them to study energy transfer across different patterns ranging from the circumference of the globe down to 10 kilometers. These techniques were then applied to ocean datasets from an advanced climate model and from satellite observations…” #GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #model #modeling #global #model #modeling #numericmodeling #ocean #weather #oceanweather #globalclimate #climatechange #atmosphere #mathematicalmodeling #energytransfer #climatemodel #satellite #earthobservation

"How can we tell that it's warmer now than thousands of years ago if there were no weather stations back then?" This is a question I often hear. While it's true that direct measurements of surface temperatures only began in the 17th-18th centuries, we can infer past temperatures through natural processes that are closely linked to climate. For example, seasonal temperature variations affect the timing of plant growth and flowering. This is an example of a climate proxy—a variable that allows us to reconstruct past temperatures even without direct measurements. Scientists have successfully used climate proxies (e.g. ice cores, tree rings) to estimate temperatures going back millions of years. While these estimates aren't perfect, they have been shown to be reliable within a certain range of uncertainty, especially when multiple proxies are combined. Today I want to show you that #cherry blossom timing could be used as a climate proxy, although it is not one of the most reliable. In #Japan, records of peak bloom dates go as far back as the year 853 (!). The plot I’m showing displays this data up to the present, with a 20-year moving average to smooth out year-to-year variability. The y-axis represents the year (moving downward), and the x-axis represents the day of the year. As expected, warmer years correspond to earlier blooms, while colder years result in later ones. Before the Industrial Revolution, there was no clear trend in the data. However, in more recent years, we see a consistent shift toward earlier bloom dates, aligning with a rising average temperature. While year-to-year fluctuations remain, the long-term trend is unmistakable.

This groundbreaking study, leveraging the ubiquitous GPS technology for environmental monitoring, marks a significant leap in our ability to understand and manage ecosystems more effectively. The novel method of estimating a forest's water content through GPS signals not only showcases an innovative use of existing technology but also opens up new avenues for research and environmental management. Such advancements are crucial for monitoring the health of our forests, which play a vital role in combating climate change by absorbing CO2. Moreover, understanding the water content within forests can greatly inform our strategies for mitigating wildfire risks and managing water resources. This technique, due to its simplicity and affordability, could revolutionize how we track environmental changes and implement conservation strategies. It's an exciting development for anyone concerned with environmental science, ecosystem health, and the broader implications for human welfare and global biodiversity. #EnvironmentalScience #EcosystemHealth #WildfirePrevention #GPSInnovation #ClimateChange #SustainableForestry #ConservationTechnology #Ecohydrology #CarbonSequestration

#Satellites sitting more than 22,200 miles (35,700 kilometers) above the Earth’s surface have been capturing storms and weather data for decades. Now, scientists are essentially #hacking the data coming back for another purpose: spotting methane emissions. The breakthrough is the latest in a series from a group of young scientists affiliated with Harvard University, the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) and the United Nations’ International Methane Emissions Observatory that have rapidly expanded researchers’ ability to spot leaks using a wide range of satellites not originally designed to track methane. The innovation could have far-reaching consequences for fossil fuel operators unable or unwilling to halt major #methane releases because it allows researchers to observe emissions every five minutes and estimate the total amount emitted. The approach, which uses shortwave infrared observations from the NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), can detect large-emitting events of around tens of metric tons an hour or larger in North America. The new approach enables near continuous, real-time coverage and contrasts with other satellites currently used to detect methane, which are in low-Earth orbit and snap images as they circumnavigate the globe at speeds of around 17,000 miles per hour, only allowing scientists to estimate emission rates. “GOES can detect brief releases that the other satellites miss, and it can trace detached plumes back to their sources,” said Daniel Varon, a research associate at Harvard's Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group who first proposed the concept in 2022. “It can also quantify total release mass and duration, rather than just instantaneous estimates of emission rate.” The new technique is already being used by geoanalytics firms and scientists to quantify major emissions events in North America. Kayrros used the approach to estimate that a fossil gas pipeline spewed about 840 metric tons of methane into the atmosphere after it was ruptured by a farmer using an excavator. The short-term climate impact of the event was roughly equal to the annual emissions from 17,000 US cars. Read more in my latest for Bloomberg Green through the gift link below: https://lnkd.in/gVjYnNYE

Surface tower-based measurements are often used as a reference observation for satellite data calibration- validation studies, for developing as well as evaluating model (simulation) results, and for advancing understanding of the earth system processes. An important consideration at the heart of such measurements is understanding what is the surface the results are representative of. For this, there is a body of models that are integrated to understand the so-called source area and footprint estimates. Assumption about a homogeneous surface is inherent in these models - something which is hard to satisfy especially in places close to cities, and in regions of Indian, and African subcontinent. To address this question, we conducted field measurements and tested different models, the results from which have been summarized in a recent a paper Shweta Kumari, B. V. N. P. Kambhammettu, Mark A. Adams, and Dev Niyogi. "Analysis of flux footprints in fragmented, heterogeneous croplands." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 136, no. 2 (2024): 9. available at https://lnkd.in/gnSdNERK

Geoophys. Res. Lett. (2025) 10.1029/2024GL110250: "Monitoring Water from Space: An illustration in Death Valley, California." Death Valley National Park has long been known more as one of the driest + hottest places on Earth. Nonetheless, between late 2023 and early 2024 it was hit by unusual storms, starting with Hurricane Hilary, resulting in fleeting new lakes. This created an opportunity for testing a new system of high-resolution satellite monitoring of Earth’s water. "The new Surface Water and Topography Mission (SWOT) satellite mission is measuring water elevations with unprecedented detail globally," while the companion "Observational Products for End-Users from Remote Sensing Analysis (OPERA) project is mapping surface water extent from satellite images." Yep, more acronyms to learn. Important though, because climate change and human activity are dramatically reshaping how water is distributed on Earth. Aridity + its associated risks of wildfires + crop failures + kidney stones, + ecosystem dislocations are part of the changing hydrological cycle. The increased occurrence of droughts in some regions and heavier rainfall and flooding in others (Ficklin et al., 2022; Huntington et al., 2018) are matched, bookending disorders. History is replete with examples of civilizations failing without water. Which is why it's critical to learn from history.

𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆📍 _... • Gravimetry focuses on measuring small variations in gravitational acceleration across different locations on Earth. These variations arise from differences in subsurface density, topography, and Earth's internal structure. 🔹𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 🤔 • Gravimetric data contribute to: 1️⃣ 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗶𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: The geoid represents an equipotential surface of Earth's gravity field that approximates mean sea level. Accurate geoid models are essential for converting GNSS-derived ellipsoidal heights to orthometric heights. 2️⃣ 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗔𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀: Differences between observed and theoretical gravity values provide insights into subsurface structures, aiding geophysical surveys. 3️⃣ 𝗧𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗮 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴: Gravimetry helps track oceanic mass redistribution, improving climate change models and understanding sea level variations. 4️⃣ 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴: Gravity measurements detect subsurface mass changes due to tectonic activity, volcanic activity, or groundwater depletion. 🔹𝗧𝘆𝗽𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀 🎯 𝟭. 𝗔𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆 • Uses free-fall laser interferometry to measure gravitational acceleration with high precision. Absolute gravimeters are used for geoid calibration, fundamental physics experiments, and monitoring gravity changes over time. 𝟮. 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆 • Measures gravity differences between locations using spring-based gravimeters. These instruments are commonly used in field surveys for geophysical prospecting, tectonic studies, and terrain corrections in geodetic applications. 𝟯. 𝗔𝗶𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗜. 𝗔𝗶𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆: Conducted using gravimeters mounted on aircraft to collect regional-scale gravity data. 𝗜𝗜. 𝗦𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆: Missions such as GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer) have revolutionized global gravity field modeling, providing data for climate studies, hydrology, and geodesy. 🔹𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🔎 • Emerging technologies, such as quantum gravimetry and ultra-sensitive atomic interferometers, promise significant advancements in gravity measurement accuracy. These innovations will enhance geoid modeling, improve earthquake prediction models, and refine global navigation systems. 🫵🏾 Share your perspective 👇🏾 🔻Follow: Gensre Engineering & Research #Geodesy #Gravimetry #Geophysics #Geoid #Surveying #RemoteSensing #GIS #GNSS #GravityField #GeospatialAnalysis #EarthObservation #Tectonics #GeoScience Image Credit 📸: IAG + GGOS Geodesy