Understanding Retail Media Dynamics

Retail media passing TV in total ad spend....is a big deal. For any of us (count me in) that figured this would happen, it is still 2-3 years earlier than most of us assumed. I thought 2028 if I had to bet a dollar on it. Here are four key reasons why this is happening far sooner than most guessed: 🛒 It meets the shopper at the moment of purchase with new and unique ad formats not designed to interrupt but to help create commerce. Unlike TV, retail media reaches consumers when they’re actively browsing or buying. Shoppable ads are changing the game. Retail media blurs the line between advertising and commerce, turning impressions into purchases instantly. So, you have free-falling passive TV ratings numbers in one column with low innovation, and then rapid ad product innovation in the other. ➰ It offers closed-loop attribution. Brands can directly track ad spend to in-store or online sales—something traditional media has struggled to prove at scale. AMC might be the most powerful piece of adtech/martech in 20 years. ℹ️ Retailers have become media powerhouses. Giants like Amazon, Walmart, and Target now control massive amounts of first-party shopper data, making their ad platforms incredibly valuable. It is arguably the best 1P data out there. There were 10 announcements out of Cannes where this 1P data is getting used in new and different ways (Roku/Amazon a great example).. 💲 Brand and Integrated Media Owners are finally understanding retail media. I think this shift is the MOST significant of the four. Of all the total media dollars, the largest share sit under the "Head of Media" at brands. He/she is now seeing what Amazon/WM/Instacart/Target/Kroger/Ulta et al can do for them, even if non-endemic. This money has just barely started to flow. People have recently claimed that we are seeing peak retail media or that there is retail media fatigue. I think time will show they are wrong. We are in the 3rd inning (barely) of a 9 inning game (post on this soon). IE - The chart below will likely accelerate if anything. Talk soon.

Retail Media Isn’t New. But the Stakes Are. When I started my career at American Airlines, I worked in the AAdvantage program — back when selling access to our loyalty file (for direct mail and email!) was cutting-edge. We gave brands two things: 1️⃣ A trusted, permission-based audience 2️⃣ A powerful incentive to drive action: miles Sound familiar? Fast forward to today, and retail media is exploding. 💥 Last week, Marriott International (another past employer of mine) officially launched its retail media network, joining Amazon, Walmart, Target, 7-Eleven, Kroger, CVS, and others in turning first-party data into high-margin media businesses. The difference? The data is richer, the scale is global, and the stakes are higher. Here’s what’s driving this shift: • Cookies are (maybe eventually) going away — and the best fallback is the data you already own • Performance marketing is hitting a wall — retail media offers closed-loop attribution in high-intent environments • Loyalty is no longer just retention — it’s a revenue engine and a competitive moat Let’s call it what it is: → Search was Wave 1: Google monetized intent → Social was Wave 2: Meta monetized attention → Retail Media is Wave 3: Brands are monetizing behavior — actual purchase signals, not just eyeballs Per Group M, retail media is projected to hit $110B+ in global spend this year, growing faster than search and streaming. But this isn’t just about media budgets. It’s about power, margin, and building ecosystems that scale. Here’s what forward-thinking CMOs are asking now: 🔍 Are we renting audiences or building our own? 💡 What proprietary signals do we have that could become a revenue stream? 🏗️ Is our customer base valuable enough to support a media model of its own? Because the brands that win in this next era won’t just optimize ROAS. They’ll own the signal, the shelf, and the story. If you’re a CMO, a media lead, or a brand strategist — this is the conversation worth having right now. Share it with your team, your agency, or that friend building their own audience engine. This shift changes the game. The smart ones are already playing it. #RetailMedia #CMOInsights #FirstPartyData #LoyaltyStrategy #MarketingLeadership

How can retailers activate in-store experiences that can scale efficiently and measure incremental impact? 🤝 In-store media requires cross-functional collaboration across marketing, merchandising, and retail media teams. Merchant alignment is essential to ensure in-store media supports broader category goals, promotions, and pricing strategies. However, fragmentation between teams often leads to inconsistent execution. 💰 High upfront investment in digital screens, infrastructure, and maintenance makes scalability a challenge. Retailers must balance technology costs with expected ROI. Additionally, ensuring planogram compliance and optimizing store layouts for maximum visibility and shopper impact requires coordination across teams. 📊 In-store media success is evaluated through POS data, sales lift analysis, customer sentiment surveys, and match market tests. These methods help brands understand the impact on purchasing behavior, optimize budgets, and refine in-store strategies. 🐢 Crawl Phase: Retailers should pilot technologies, gather initial data, and build a scalable business model while training teams and refining measurement approaches. Early-stage collaboration with merchants ensures that in-store media aligns with overall store operations and merchandising priorities. 🚶 Walk Phase: Use data insights to optimize content, improve store-level targeting, and scale successful pilots. Refining planograms and integrating in-store media with category management strategies help maximize effectiveness. Introduce advanced features like interactive displays, mobile integration, and AI-driven recommendations to enhance engagement. 🏃 Run Phase: Fully integrate online and in-store strategies to create seamless in-store experiences that can measure omnichannel impact. Collaborate closely with merchants, store operations, and category managers to ensure store layouts, promotions, and digital touchpoints work together.

For the good part of the last 15 years in my role, observing the shifting tides of the CPG, especially in the grocery sector, has been paramount. We're all too familiar with the slim pickings of traditional grocery margins. And guess what could be the cavalry for the grocery business? Yes, retail media networks (RMN). RMNs are not just another revenue stream; they are the lifeblood of enhanced profitability that doesn't tread on the toes of existing spending. Let's take a moment to digest this: CMP reports that incorporating RMNs can yield a 4.3% revenue surge. I love that! And it's not just about the numbers; it's about strategically positioning oneself in a fierce market. Retail media networks significantly enhance the economic performance of grocery businesses. Customer Management Partners reports that these networks can shift the traditionally narrow margins in the grocery sector, boosting revenue by a substantial 4.3% and potentially doubling net profits. Consider the giants— Kroger, Target, Walmart, Tesco, Carrefour, Albert Heijn, Ahold Delhaize. Their early adoption of RMNs is a chess move that sets them leagues ahead of the game, dwarfing smaller chains and independent grocers in their wake. 💡 ++ Economic impact on grocery businesses ++ 📍Incremental high-margin revenue 📍Doubling net profits 📍Competitive advantage ++ So, what should #CPG brands be doing? ++ 1. CPG brands should harness the power of first-party data available through retail media networks to enhance targeting and personalization of their campaigns. 2. Advertisers should integrate their online and offline marketing efforts to provide a seamless consumer experience. Let's synchronize digital retail media campaigns with in-store promotions, for starters. It's not too late to capitalize on the ROPO effect (Research Online, Purchase Offline). 3. CPGs should build closer collaborations with retail partners to gain better positioning and visibility within their digital platforms. I'm talking about negotiating for premium ad placements, co-creating exclusive promotional content, and accessing deeper insights into customer shopping patterns, which can help tailor offerings and maximize the impact of retail media investments. 4. CPGs must also streamline internal teams (1-sales/commerce, 2-marketing/media, 3-brand/agency, 4-supply chain) to reduce duplication and increase efficiency in media buying and campaign management across different retail partners. Given the significant revenue boosts and profit increases attributed to retail media networks, should grocery businesses be concerned about potentially prioritizing advertising revenues over customer experience and product quality? #ecommert #ecommerce #retailmedia #digitalshelf #experience #revenue #growth #strategy

I often tell people that I'm betting on #videocommerce as a core driver of e-comm GMV over the next decade. That calculation means that to help drive adoption and expansion of #shoppablevideo as a premier ad-format among #retailers and #brands, I want to be working among the best teams, products, an innovation. This release explains why I joined buywith & myAthena as their Chief Operating Officer. Quickly summarized... I see the best, particularly as a leader in unlocking the creation and seamless flow of video in #retailmedia. More specifically... Looking across 20 years of online media spend, in its current form, retail media is where digital publishing was from 2005-2015: Display Ad-first (static banner ads). However, 2015-2025 saw a Video Ad-first market proliferate due the format's ability to drive exponentially higher engagement & conversion KPIs for marketers. Online content publishers saw a huge spike in the demand for video pre-roll formats (versus static ads). Those who had the most video media inventory available for purchase, saw far larger ad budgets coming their way overall from Brands through their media buying agencies. Retailers are the new online content Publisher. #shoppablevideo will be king. With US e-comm revenue forecast to grow by 37% over the next 4 years, hitting $1.8 trillion in 2029 (10 consecutive years of increase), 2025-2029 will see the same adjustment in ad media format spend that website content Publishers did from 2015-2025. This will also be fueled by video content overall skyrocketing as a preferred consumption format online. Marketers will adjust accordingly. Which retailers will have the most shoppable video inventory available for purchase by brands and their agencies within their respective shopper categories (fashion, beauty, mass grocery as a conduit to cooking content or even in-store game-shows, consumer electronics, DIY, home goods, etc.)? The companies I've joined in Q2 aren't just leading the future of video commerce. They have an understanding of how online media is transacted, blending a suite of SaaS & Media products which allow Brands and Retailers to adjust Creatives through AI to hit their combined consumer marketing guidelines (Dynamic Video Ads). Our vision will also continue to lead AI-driven video in retail media past Creative; interoperability across media buying, beyond Search, transaction (direct & DSP/SSP), measurement, personalization, and as the leading tech enabler driving iROAS in the space. Excited to be here! https://lnkd.in/giwcQ_WN

MORE RETAIL MEDIA PREDICTIONS: FROM WHO'S WHO LIST OF INDUSTRY LEADERS Melanie Zimmermann at Criteo: “Retail media is quickly evolving into a full-funnel experience... this convergence of performance and brand awareness allows for a unified view of the consumer journey, while also providing the holy grail of advertising: closed-loop measurement.” Paul Brenner at Vibenomics, a Mood Media company: “The retail media landscape is a multifaceted marketplace... creating a complex environment to navigate. The lack of standardized data and reporting across different RMNs makes it challenging to compare performance and optimize media spend effectively.” Matt Voda at OptiMine Software, Inc.: “The [Walmart] targeting options are very precise and allow the brand to match their own customer databases with the retailers' to serve ads only to those consumers they want to reach.” Eleanor Hayden at Hayden Consultancy: “Ibotta syndication presents a tremendous opportunity for small brands to quickly establish relevance on the platform, as they are likely to sell more units when an offer is attached. As their relevance grows, organic sales increase, and bid prices decrease.” Jorge Argota at Jorge Argota: “Walmart’s partnership with The Trade Desk is giving brands new ways to reach consumers through CTV and create a more immersive and interactive shopping experience... then measure their impact on both online and offline sales.” Mike Merna at Yahoo: “It's [CTV] a significant step beyond traditional display ads and sponsored product listings, particularly for marketers who want the story-telling capabilities of TV, but with more audience targeting precision.” Gil Phipps at Advantage Solutions: “They [small + mid-size retailers] are going to need some help to remain competitive. I anticipate seeing outside companies focus [on] helping these smaller retailers build out their own retail media networks, with the hope to help bridge the already big gap between smaller and larger retailers.” Leah Logan at Inmar Intelligence: “In 2025, we expect to see more RMNs include in-store (both digital and physical signage), CTV, and creators as vital parts of their media strategy. These channels provide more opportunities to unlock full-funnel advertising... unlocking the bigger budgets held by national brand marketing teams.” Renee Caceres at StackAdapt: “The fastest growing RMNs are prioritizing off-site audience extensions... with a projected growth of 163% for retail media display ad spend between 2024 and 2028.” Andy Howard at Mars United Commerce: “A mature retailer will boast advanced full-funnel capabilities, offer a blend of managed and self-service options and have established demand connections with indirect partners. In contrast, retailers in earlier stages typically focus on managed services and direct sales. Understanding these nuances is key to navigating the increasingly crowded retail media landscape.” #retailmedia #fullfunnel #closedloopattribution

Most retail media networks don’t add incremental value. Michael Shields, with whom I had the pleasure to have dinner at Andy Plesser´s #BeetBerks event, said it well in his latest piece: Too many RMNs are too small to justify their place on a media plan, and even when they do, it's far from clear that retail media spend growth drives retail sales growth. We agree.    The big opportunity for retail media isn’t just to monetize existing shopper attention. It’s to anticipate shopper intent.    That requires more than ad slots on a single retailer's site. It requires:  ·       A relationship with the advertiser, so you understand brand goals.  ·       A relationship with the merchant, so you can unlock the right inventory.  ·       A relationship with consumers to understand their behavior across retailers, purchases, categories, and moments in time.    This is what makes PayPal Ads so unique.    We sit across tens of millions of merchants and 400M+ consumers, with visibility into over 1 billion shopping moments each month.     Not just clicks. Transactions.  Not just on one site. Across the internet. That allows us to help advertisers predict demand and help merchants participate in it. Take our latest innovation, Storefront Ads, for example. Instead of pushing only a single product, we can feature the merchants that sell the products. That means better performance for the advertiser and value for the merchant, not one at the expense of the other. Moreover, the PayPal Ads approach is crafted for this emerging Era of the Empowered Shopper in which the path to purchase is accelerating. In an agentic era, consumers won't navigate to a bunch of individual retailers' sites. So, both advertisers and merchants need a way to anticipate shopper demand and meet them everywhere. That’s how commerce media becomes more than a tactic for retailers to juice margins. And that’s how we break out of the “RMN” box and build something much bigger.    Give it a read and let’s discuss!

EMARKETER predicts that offsite retail media will grow two times faster than onsite retail media, and Best Buy just said, “hold my beer.” Today, Best Buy launched Social+, a massive new play to extend their retail media network directly to Meta platforms. So, what exactly is Social+? It lets brands use Best Buy’s first-party customer data to supercharge their Facebook and Instagram campaigns. If you think about it, Best Buy knows exactly who’s buying tech products, what they’re in the market for, and how they shop. Why does this matter? Three key reasons: 1. On-site retail media is going to hit a ceiling. Retailers can only place so many sponsored product listings before the customer experience starts to suffer. Off-site is where a lot of the growth is going to come from. 2. 71% of retail media spending goes to lower-funnel, conversion-focused campaigns like sponsored products. While many retailers offer top-of-funnel ad types, like sponsored display ads in their retail media network, off-site media like Best Buy’s Social+ helps brands build upper-funnel awareness outside of the immediate shopping context—while being sure they’re actually targeting relevant customers. 3. Best Buy is clearly executing a coordinated strategy to develop new revenue streams beyond traditional retail. I reported for Forbes last week on Best Buy’s upcoming marketplace launch, and now they’re announcing these expanded advertising capabilities. The retail media landscape is evolving far beyond simple sponsored product ads. For brands, this means opportunity—but also complexity. Smart marketers will begin testing these offsite retail media strategies. If you found this breakdown valuable, check out my full article on Forbes today (link in comments).

Just ahead of Shoptalk, Sarah Marzano's new report shows that while 80% of retail media ad spend goes to retailers' own websites & apps, the big growth is in off-site retail media. Indeed, in 2025, off-site ad spend will grow at almost 3x the rate of on-site as retailers look beyond their own digital properties to offer new opportunities for advertisers. Sarah writes in the intro to her report: 𝘙𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭 𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘥𝘶𝘦𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘰𝘯-𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭 𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘴 (𝘙𝘔𝘕𝘴) 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘺𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘦𝘣 𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘰𝘧𝘧-𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘸𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵. When she writes "𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘥𝘶𝘦𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴," that largely means slowing growth at Amazon which takes in 3/4 of all retail media ad spend. Indeed, Amazon has seen a decline in growth in advertiser spending on the platform YoY (although to be clear, Amazon's YoY ad revenues are still growing by double-digits every quarter). Given the different growth rates of on- vs. off-site ad spending, virtually all players—from Amazon to Walmart all the way to the long tail of RMNs—are eyeing off-site opportunities including CTV, social media and third-party publishers. For more, clients can check out the report on 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗢𝗳𝗳-𝗦𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲: 𝘙𝘔𝘕𝘴 𝘌𝘺𝘦 𝘖𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘞𝘦𝘣 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘕𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘎𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 𝘗𝘩𝘢𝘴𝘦. Link for clients in the comments.

A major U.S. retailer that prides itself in low prices wants brands to spend 25–75% more retail media dollars this year! Some brands are writing $45M checks. The problem? Sales aren’t moving. This is the kind of math that breaks brands, especially in these uncertain economic times. And yet, this is the reality for many CPG leaders right now: --Retailers are squeezing harder --Consumers are trading down --Tariffs are going to crush margins --Leadership is demanding impact, not just investment One global brand we work with is walking away from their retailer media deal. Why? Because the ROI just doesn’t add up … and the accountability is real. If you're blindly increasing retail media spend without deep insights into conversion, incremental ROAS, and shelf SoV, you’re being irresponsible with money. In these uncertain times, it's all about stretching your media dollars to drive true incremental ROAS for your most profitable products. Retail media is growing. But the brands that win in 2025 won’t be the ones with the biggest budgets. They’ll be the ones who combine digital shelf insights to develop right media strategies that drive incremental sales. We’re seeing incredible results by combining shelf, sales and media data and using AI to automate campaign optimization. More to come soon. #RetailMedia #ecommerce #tariffs #CommerceIQ