Workforce Planning Insights

As we step into 2024, it's crucial for us in the careers and employment sector to stay ahead of the curve. Here are my predictions and reactions to three emerging workforce trends for the upcoming year: 1️⃣ AI Applicant Backlash: The rise of AI in recruitment has been a game-changer, but there's a new twist. Some companies are developing AI tools to detect the use of AI in job applications. This raises a question: Why limit innovation to HR departments? Shouldn't we embrace candidates who are resourceful enough to use AI to enhance their applications? It's time to rethink our approach and recognize the value of qualified candidates who are adept at leveraging technology. 2️⃣ "Back Door" Remote Jobs: The trend of remote work continues, but with a twist. Some companies offer remote positions on an unofficial basis, creating a disparity between the 'official' policy and the reality. This double standard can lead to dissatisfaction among employees who aren't privy to these exceptions. It's essential for companies to reevaluate their policies to be transparent and fair in the workplace. 3️⃣ Labor Union Wins: The recent victories of labor unions at organizations like UPS and Kaiser Permanente signal a growing trend of worker empowerment. This shift is likely to gain further momentum in the 2024 election cycle, as candidates seek to align with either workers or employers. The same millennials and Gen Z workers who prioritized workplace well-being could play a pivotal role in shaping the future of unions. The workforce is constantly evolving. It's up to us all to adapt and innovate to stay ahead. What trends are you seeing? Links to further reading are in the comments. 👇 #employmenttrends #backdoorremote #FutureOfWork #RemoteWorkLife #wfh #unionstrong

AI Agents Are Coming for Your HR To-Do List. And That’s a Good Thing. In the next 1–3 years, intelligent HR agents will become your most reliable team members. These AI tools will be available 24/7, able to respond instantly, scale effortlessly, and personalize HR support in ways even the best-staffed teams struggle to maintain. Here's how AI agents will soon deliver core HR services across every major HR function: Talent Acquisition & Recruitment • Write and optimize job descriptions • Screen resumes and rank qualified candidates • Schedule interviews automatically • Answer applicant FAQs in real time Onboarding & Staffing • Deliver personalized onboarding plans to new hires and their hiring manager • Automate compliance paperwork • Monitor onboarding completion metrics Performance Management • Draft performance reviews using manager and employee feedback • Track goals and the associated results • Suggest tailored career development plans Compensation & Benefits • Generate employee and candidate pay recommendations within the grade’s range • Model salary adjustment scenarios • Explain benefits options and answer questions from employees • Write and deliver open benefits enrollment presentations to different audiences Training & Development • Curate individualized employee learning pathways by role/skill gaps • Send emails to employees to remind them to complete their learning modules • Summarize feedback on microlearning assessments Employee & Labor Relations • Flag early warning signs in employee sentiment • Draft policy clarification messages • Analyze grievance trends and risk indicators • Conduct employee exit interviews Compliance & Policy • Alert on upcoming policy changes • Conduct audits and provide reports with change recommendations • Ensure document version control is maintained and readily available HR Strategy & Planning • Surface workforce trends and provide actions relevant to the industry and size of the employer • Forecast workforce attrition and hiring needs • Benchmark against external labor market data HRIS & Self-Service • Answer “how do I…” questions (e.g., update direct deposit) • Automate data entry and corrections • Guide managers through workflows • Provide data governance recommendations This isn't science fiction. These capabilities already exist in early forms. HR leaders who embrace AI agents as teammates, not threats, will spend less time on tasks and more time on strategy, trust-building, and transformation. The future of HR is smart, fast, and human-led with AI at your side. Are you preparing your function to lead or follow? #HR #HumanResources #AIinHR #FutureOfWork #Compensation #TalentDevelopment #HRTech #PerformanceManagement #HRStrategy #HRTransformation #PeopleAnalytics #Compensation #Benefits #WorldatWork #SHRM #CompensationConsultant https://shorturl.at/5sIU3

Immigrants are driving the U.S. economy — but outdated systems are holding them back. At SXSW EDU, I joined leaders, Ramona Schindelheim of WorkingNation, Katie Brown, PhD of EnGen, and Arturo Cazares of LBAN/Latino Business Action Network to spotlight immigrants’ critical economic impact — and the barriers they face accessing quality jobs. 📊 The data is clear: 1️⃣ Immigrants make up 14% of the population, 20% of the workforce, and contribute $1.7T to the economy. 2️⃣ By 2035, 100% of U.S. population growth will come from immigrants and their children. 3️⃣ 50% of Fortune 500 companies were founded or co-founded by immigrants. From workforce access to innovation, we should invest in immigrant talent — and break down barriers like credentialing, employer recognition, and cultural gaps in self-promotion. Immigrants bring resilience, adaptability, and creativity — exactly what’s needed in the age of AI and the future of work. Let’s stop making them wait a generation. #SXSWEDU Read more:

2025 is here, and while many are posting a list of predictions, I’m here with one clear warning for the talent world and business leaders... This year will see a hiring boom (and I've been pessimistic the last 3 years). But if we don’t heed the lessons of 2021, many companies will find themselves over-hiring—again—and paying the price. Here’s what needs to happen to avoid a repeat of the mistakes we’ve seen: 1️⃣ Stop rushing into Q1 hiring frenzies. Base hiring plans on historic seasonality data. From experience and conversations with peers, many companies don’t finalize formal hiring plans until February. That means Q1 targets are often missed, and Q4 becomes a scramble due to the short quarter. Don’t panic-hire in March and onboard 100 recruiters to "catch up." Rushed hiring leads to overcapacity and inefficiency. Unless your business has changed significantly since 2024, stick close to historic hiring patterns and resist overestimating what strategy alone can accomplish. 2️⃣ Scenario plan for the unexpected. Ask: What if your product outpaces expectations and demands a robust infrastructure team? What if revenue dips after a big deal falls through? What if an executive departure triggers attrition? This is not optional. Revenue swings, key departures, product surges—2025 will surprise you. Smart leaders are already brainstorming around “weird but possible” scenarios. 3️⃣ Tie headcount to results, not wishful thinking. Every role should have a direct tie to business outcomes. Period. Anything else is a gamble. Be deliberate: hire for stability in Q1 and link additional roles to measurable growth triggers as the year unfolds. 4️⃣ Build a flexible recruiting team. Let’s prevent another wave of mass layoffs like 2022. Invest in a lean team supplemented by flexible contractors or RPO support. Keep an eye on the ratio of fixed-to-contract hiring (ahem, Google) but know that adaptability benefits everyone. 5️⃣ Anticipate how AI will boost productivity in all functions. By late 2025, will you still need the same size or structure of sourcing teams? Of Eng teams? Maybe, but AI advancements could amplify their output. Plan now for where AI will make the biggest impact in your org—and be ready to adapt. Here’s my warning for 2025: pace yourself, plan ahead, and stay flexible. This year promises to be a fun one, full of exciting growth in the talent space and hopefully more opportunities for everyone. If you’re a strategic recruiter already thinking about these challenges, reach out! Many of our startups at Sequoia are eager to find thoughtful recruiters and leaders ready to crush 2025. #recruiting #hiring #techrecruiting #techrecruiting #2025 #predictions

There’s been a lot of speculation in the past two weeks following the election about the incoming administration and the changes we’re likely to see in the workplace and labor market. I've been reflecting on what these shifts could mean for the #futureofwork — and the potential implications are both complex and concerning. We may be entering a period of significant policy changes, including labor regulations, immigration, and workforce classification. Among these, one stands out for its sweeping potential impact: large-scale deportations and visa restrictions. This graph from The Conference Board speaks volumes, underscoring the critical role of immigrant workers in sustaining the U.S. labor force and economy. Policies that remove millions of workers could have severe consequences, such as: 1️⃣ Labor Force Shrinkage: Deporting a large number of workers would significantly reduce the U.S. labor force, exacerbating labor shortages in industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality—industries already struggling to fill roles. 2️⃣ Economic Contraction: Fewer workers mean less productivity, reduced output, and slower economic growth. The data clearly shows that large-scale deportations would directly impact GDP, with sharp declines that the economy would struggle to recover from. 3️⃣ Pace Matters: Sudden, mass deportations would cause immediate and significant economic harm. Even a slower approach wouldn’t shield the economy from lasting damage to labor force participation and growth potential. 4️⃣ Policy Intersections: This highlights the interconnectedness of labor policies and economic outcomes. Policymakers must consider how such measures could unintentionally worsen labor shortages, drive inflation, and destabilize workplaces. To business leaders, this is a moment to engage your workforce. Open communication about potential changes builds trust and fosters resilience in times of uncertainty. As we prepare for what’s ahead, it’s crucial to have informed, data-driven conversations about how policies will impact businesses, the economy, and the workforce. Let’s ensure the decisions we make support a stable, sustainable future of work. What are your thoughts? How can leaders balance these changing economic realities to ensure a stable, sustainable workforce? I would love to hear your thoughts!

It’s absolutely possible to grow your startup too fast. Leading to unexpected failure. Most companies think about growth in demand-side terms—TAM, market trends, and competitive positioning. But that’s only part of the equation. Supply-side constraints matter too. High demand doesn’t automatically translate into profitable, scalable growth unless your company has the capabilities to meet it. I love this quote: “In finance, sustainable growth is a well-defined concept: It’s the fastest a company can grow without needing to raise capital or take on debt.” But what’s the People Ops equivalent? 💡 What if we defined sustainable people growth as the fastest a company can scale without breaking its culture or ability to execute? If we define sustainable people growth that way, then founders and HR leaders can take proactive steps to prevent growth bottlenecks before they happen. Here are 6 steps to keep people growth sustainable: 1. Workforce Planning in Lockstep with Business Growth. Tie hiring plans directly to revenue, product roadmaps, and customer demand to avoid over- or under-hiring. 2. Build an Onboarding Engine That Scales. A weak onboarding process slows execution and lowers retention. Standardize a 30-60-90-day ramp plan for new hires. 3. Define Leadership Capacity Limits. Identify the manager-to-team ratio where execution and culture start breaking down (4-6 direct reports per manager is a good rule of thumb), then proactively train new leaders before that tipping point. 4. Preempt Burnout in Fast-Growing Teams. Measure workload early, especially for critical teams (engineering, sales, customer success). Create scalable work processes before people hit breaking points. 5. Codify Culture & Decision-Making. Rapid hiring dilutes culture unless values and decision-making frameworks are explicit. Embed these into onboarding, performance reviews, and leadership training. 6. Strengthen Internal Mobility & Upskilling. When hiring slows or certain roles are hard to fill, can you upskill existing employees into new roles instead? How do you define sustainable growth in People Ops?

📢 80% of CEOs rank talent as a top priority—but only 20% believe their companies are effectively managing it. McKinsey’s latest research reveals a major shift in people management—one that separates high-performing organizations from those falling behind. 🏆 Companies that master both people development and financial performance are: ✔️ 4X more likely to outperform competitors in their industry. ✔️ 1.5X more likely to sustain top-tier performance year after year. ✔️ 2X more likely to see higher retention, engagement, and innovation. So, what’s changing? A new operating model for HR is emerging—one that’s more personal, more tech-driven, and more human. 📊 Key data-backed insights from the report: 🚀 AI & Automation Will Reshape HR 🔹 Up to 66% of traditional HR tasks (payroll, compliance, reporting) could be automated—freeing up HR to focus on business strategy, workforce design, and leadership development. 🔹 The fastest-growing HR roles? People data scientists, AI specialists, and talent marketplace strategists. 💡 Real-Time Talent Allocation is a Competitive Advantage 🔹 High-performing organizations fill internal roles 63% faster than low-performing peers. 🔹 AI-driven talent marketplaces increase internal mobility by 25-30%—leading to stronger succession planning and reduced hiring costs. 📈 Hyper-Personalization is the Future of Work 🔹 71% of employees now expect tailored coaching, career pathways, and benefits driven by real-time data. 🔹 Companies that offer personalized employee experiences see higher engagement (+24%) and lower turnover (-17%). 👥 Managerial Roles Must Evolve 🔹 60% of managers’ time is still spent on administrative tasks that AI could handle. 🔹 The best managers of the future will focus on coaching, collaboration, and emotional intelligence—not just process oversight. 📊 People Analytics Leaders Will Drive Business Outcomes 🔹 Organizations with strong people analytics capabilities are 3X more likely to make data-driven workforce decisions that impact profitability and growth. 🔹 The next-gen HR function isn’t just about compliance—it’s about driving measurable business value. 💡 The future of people management isn’t just about technology, it’s about transforming HR into a strategic powerhouse. Check the comments for McKinsey’s full report. How is your organization adapting to this shift? #PeopleAnalytics #HRAnalytics #FutureOfWork #AIinHR #TalentStrategy

"Should we hire or should we cut?" is a question I'm hearing often from small business owners right now, which is fair given the mixed economic signals. Some clients are seeing their best quarters ever. Others are watching pipelines thin out. Everyone seems to be asking, "How do we plan for what we can't predict?" This is where scenario planning becomes your survival tool; not just hoping for the best, but modeling the reality of different futures. Here's what we walk our clients through: 🌳 The Growth Scenario: For example, if revenue is expected to be up, we’re looking at potential team expansion and higher overhead. Looking at what that does for cash flow given the changes to expected expense changes. 🌱 The Steady Scenario: Where flat growth is expected and we plan to maintain current team, we’ll want to optimize margins and prepare for inevitable per team member increases. There will likely be some percentage increase YOY but we expect the core costs to stay the same. 🍃 The Contraction Scenario: On the other hand, if revenue is expected to go down, we want to look at strategic cuts that allow the team to run efficiently while preserving cash. For our clients, this is usually a mix of team, professional services, and travel. We also want to ensure that the resources kept are used efficiently. Each scenario gets its own financial mode where we map out cash flow, runway, and break-even points for 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. The command center for this? Fathom. We've been using Fathom since the beginning of Little Fish Accounting and it lets us build the scenarios in real-time with clients, showing exactly how each decision ripples through their financials. No more spreadsheet gymnastics or gut-feeling guesses. Ultimately, the founders who survive uncertainty aren't the ones with crystal balls—they're the ones with clear models and decisive action plans. And we're glad to be the builders 🧱

When application volume tends to slow during the holidays, I focus on strategic activities that enhance long-term success while still meeting immediate hiring needs. Here’s a list of priorities: 1. Pipeline Building and Sourcing *Proactively source passive candidates: Use LinkedIn to engage with candidates who might not be actively applying but could be open to opportunities. *Nurture relationships: Reconnect with candidates from your database who weren’t hired previously but could fit future roles. *Attend or host virtual events: Take part in webinars, networking events, or career fairs to meet potential talent. 2. Employer Branding *Update job postings: Ensure my listings are clear, engaging, and aligned with company’s values. *Share engaging content: Highlight employee success stories, company culture, or holiday initiatives on social media to attract talent. 3. Professional Development *Upskill in tools and trends: Take the time to learn about new recruitment strategies, technologies, or platforms to sharpen your expertise. (Linkedin has an amazing Learning Development program to lock in to)! *Review and refine your processes: Audit your ATS, improve email templates, and analyze data to identify bottlenecks in your hiring process. 4. Candidate Engagement *Personalized outreach: During a quieter season, can take the time to send thoughtful messages that stand out. *Follow up with previous applicants: Reach out to candidates who might still be interested for future openings. 5. Strategic Planning for the New Year *Collaborate with hiring managers: Plan for upcoming roles and assess workforce needs for Q1. *Create talent maps: Identify key skills and talent gaps in your organization to guide future recruitment efforts. *Set hiring goals: Develop actionable plans to meet hiring KPIs for the next year. 6. Boost Employee Referrals *Encourage current employees to share open roles with their networks. The holidays are a great time for informal conversations that could lead to referrals. 7. Celebrate Candidates and Teams *Send holiday greetings or thank-you notes to maintain positive relationships. *Recognize your recruitment team’s achievements and build morale for the year ahead. By focusing on these activities, you’ll strengthen your talent pipeline, improve your processes, and set yourself up for success when hiring picks up again post-holidays. And AWLAYS take time out to refresh! For me, that is getting outside with my dog, Ruby.

The article suggested several strategies for incorporating nonlinear career paths into workforce strategy. "How do you begin to take advantage of the benefits of having staff with nonlinear career paths in your workplace? From determining what systems are keeping them out to designing roles that maximize both productivity and employee happiness." 💡 There are many concrete steps companies can take right now to transform their workforce 👇 👉 Acknowledge your biases: Examine your hiring practices to root out outdated biases or an overemphasis on traditional qualifications. Consider previous automatic red flags; for example, think of “job-hopping” as a potential indicator of a creative, innovative mind searching for new experiences and skills rather than an automatic red flag. 👉 Assess expertise vs. experience needs: Determine whether the position requires specific expertise. If it only requires knowledge that can be taught, it might be a good place to utilize proper skills-based hiring practices. 👉 Evaluate agility requirements: Consider how vital agility and adaptability are for your organization. In an era of rapid technological change and shifting employee expectations, pivoting and embracing new roles or responsibilities is crucial. 👉 Skills-based hiring: According to a survey of 3,000 international workers and employers, 73 percent of employers used skills-based hiring last year, up from 56 percent in 2022. Skills-based hiring allows for a much broader range of applicants and contributes to greater diversity in the workforce. https://lnkd.in/giemb-9Q #humanresources #careers #recruitment #talentacquisition #learning #engagement