Engineering Job Market Outlook for New Graduates

Recently chatted with my ex-manager at Google about the entry-level job market. The numbers are shocking: Google used to allocate 25-50% of engineering openings to new grads and early-career roles. Today, it's less than 5%. This isn't just a Google thing. The entire tech job market is experiencing a shift toward senior talent. Here's why: → High interest rates mean companies are playing it safe. When you can get 6% returns on treasury bills, why take risks on unproven talent? → AI's perceived impact on entry-level work has companies hesitant to invest in junior roles → Macroeconomic uncertainty is pushing firms to prioritize experienced hires who can deliver immediate impact My advice to recent grads: This isn't permanent, but it's reality for now. The market will eventually correct, but you need to be strategic in the meantime. The traditional path of landing a new grad role at a top tech company isn't as straightforward as it was even 2-3 years ago. But remember: Market cycles come and go. The key is being prepared for when opportunities return. Focus on building real skills and meaningful projects while the market recalibrates. You don't need to be the smartest. Be the most adaptable.

On our latest episode of Unsolicited Feedback, Brian Balfour and I dug into an under-the-radar trend: the 2025 SignalFire Talent Report shows new-grad hiring has fallen off a cliff. 📉 The quiet collapse in numbers • Entry-level tech hiring is 50 % lower than 2019 • Big Tech: new grads now fill just 7 % of roles (-25 % YoY, -50 % vs. 2019) • Startups: new grads are < 6 % of hires (-11 % YoY) • New-grad unemployment is up 30 % since late ’22 — almost double the overall rise • 37 % of managers say they’d rather use AI than hire Gen Z Twenty-plus years in tech and I’ve never seen top CS students graduate without offers. Where most companies see risk, I see arbitrage. 🚀 Why hiring junior talent now is a hidden edge AI-native talent – they grew up prompting GPT before writing cover letters. Cost advantage – salaries are softer just as junior productivity is spiking. Fresh energy – pair them with senior ICs who know the business logic and you get speed and context. Playbook: hire for learning speed → drop them into real workflows → give them ownership plus an LLM budget on day one. 🎓 What I’d do if I were graduating in 2025 • Ship proof-of-work. One scrappy AI side-project beats 100 “optimized” résumés. • Show considered intent. Two paragraphs on why this company, this role, right now > mass-apply. Try to network your way to the roles that you want the most. • Speak the workflow. Learn enough product or ops to redesign a real process with AI. • Go deeper if you love the science. A year in an ML lab or a focused master’s can still pay off—just do real research, not résumé padding. Founders & hiring managers: are you leaning into the junior-talent dip? Grads: what’s working (or not) in your search? Link to episode in the comments.

Early-career software engineers face an existential job market and it's no longer a debate. Since ChatGPT released two years ago, employment for software developers under 25 has dropped nearly 20%, yet headcount for those over 30 has held steady or climbed. A new paper out of Stanford by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen suggests this is a structural and lasting shift. Generative AI automates much of what used to be done by entry-level programmers. New grads who used to fill junior developer roles are now competing for a fast-shrinking number of jobs. Interesting, too, is just how insulated older, more experience engineers have been through the same period. AI has put a premium on "on-the-job" wisdom. Companies are hiring for the tacit knowledge — judgement, management, people skills — that comes from experience rather than credentials or raw technical ability. It's no coincidence that this divergence started when ChatGPT arrived. It was the first domino to mass adoption of AI, and all evidence points to an acceleration rather than a reversal. To be sure, this opens up new opportunities for the young people who are most fluent in AI. Plenty of 19-year-olds have launched products and startups that have pushed real innovation and led to massive paydays. Still, that doesn't change the takeaway from the data. Junior developer roles are disappearing.

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, didn’t hedge. He didn’t “predict.” He warned.  𝘜𝘱 𝘵𝘰 50% 𝘰𝘧 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺-𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘦-𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳 𝘫𝘰𝘣𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴. That’s not a headline—it’s a hiring filter. If your résumé doesn’t show AI fluency, you’re invisible. Not underqualified. Unqualified. 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱. Managers aren’t asking if you’re smart or ambitious. They’re asking one thing:  “Can this person create value with AI—starting on day one?” Entry-level jobs aren’t disappearing entirely. But the ones that remain are being redefined. They now demand 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 “𝗔𝗜-𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆” 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 Forget listing tools. Show outcomes. Not this: > “𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗚𝗣𝗧 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.” But this: > “𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗱 6 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀/𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗯𝘆 40%.” Not this: > “𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲.” But this: > “𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗜-𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 50 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀—𝗯𝗼𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 15%.” 1 real, measurable project > 10 LinkedIn badges. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 8-𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗙𝗶𝘅 No need to go back to school. But you do need to build something real. 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 1–2: Learn one tool deeply—Claude, Perplexity, or ChatGPT 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 3–4:Apply it to a real problem in your field 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 5-6: Document the outcome like a case study 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 7–8: Build your portfolio and start sharing your work Stop just consuming AI content. Start creating value. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 Many grads think: > “I need experience to get hired.” Hiring managers think: > “I need someone who can deliver, immediately.” AI is how you close that gap. You’re not just competing with other new grads. You’re competing with entry-level work that's being automated away. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵: This isn’t the job market you were promised. But it’s the one you're in. The people winning right now aren’t waiting for permission. They’re showing their work, solving problems, and proving their worth. If that’s not what your résumé does, let's rewrite it. 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗲 for real talk about careers, AI, and staying relevant in a changing world. 𝗗𝗠 𝗺𝗲 if you want help for the world we live in now, not the one you trained for.

As an experienced professional in India, I took a calculated risk to pursue Masters in the U.S. by spending $70K. If you’re a fresher, here’s why I will advise you against it. If you’re a new grad, it’s much harder for you to land a job in this market as on today in the U.S. This year’s new college graduates are heading into a tougher job market than last year’s — who had it worse off than the class before that. Recent grads’ unemployment rate was 5.8% as of March, up from 4.6% a year earlier, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week. The share of new graduates working jobs that don’t require their degrees — a situation known as “underemployment” — hit 41.2% in March, rising from 40.6% that same month in 2024. (Source : https://lnkd.in/e9X9mXMB) This isn’t the first time I’m saying this, but now I have credible sources backing my claim. The CEO of Atlantic a few days ago also mentioned that one reason new grads are finding it hard to land a job is : “Maybe this is the beginning a huge shift to AI doing human work. After all, the stuff that AI is best for right now are the tasks that college grads often do.” Here’s my take on this, which I have been pointing out ever since I graduated in 2022. What I saw then when I was applying for jobs, which is truer today is that, the jobs fresh grads are applying for have been steadily declining, and hence the jobs fresh grads are applying for are the same ones people with 3-6 years of experience are applying for. Guess who’ll get the interview call back & subsequently the job? If AI is also thrown in the mix, it’ll only get harder for you to land a job in U.S. if you come with zero years of experience. And hence, I WOULD NOT suggest that you pack your bags and move to US right after graduating. You’re much more likely to get a job in India as fresh grad. Sure, the pay won’t be comparable but your experience will be worthwhile, which will make sure you land your next gig in the U.S. should you choose to move 3+ years later. Here’s my final advice : 1. Instead of blindly following study abroad consultants as a new grad, invest in your portfolio, get a job in India first, build up your profile and then apply to schools. This will give you a better fighting chance of landing a job and at least paying off student debt even if you don’t get your H-1B, like me. 2. Start learning the basics of AI, because you don’t want to be left behind when the wave fully hits. Here are two free resources I’m sharing for you to get started : 1. Prompt engineering white paper by Lee Boonstra : https://lnkd.in/ejyRnEd7 2. Course on prompt engineering by google: https://bit.ly/4d0HSA8 If you found this helpful, please repost and engage with the post. P.S. I’m Shreya Mishra Reddy, an international student in the U.S., and I write about my learnings as one. Follow along!

The job market for new graduates is looking rough 🫤 . NACE projected 7.3% hiring growth for Class of 2025 back in fall. Their spring update? Just 0.6%. Meanwhile: 🚩 Recent grad unemployment hit 5.8% (up from 4.6% last year) 🔻 41% are underemployed (working jobs that don't require degrees) 📉 Job postings down 15% while applications up 30% One student told me: "I've applied to 200+ roles. Minimal interviews come out of it." Here's what's happening: Companies planned to hire more graduates, then pulled back. Federal hiring freezes, tariff uncertainty, and AI concerns are making employers cautious about entry-level positions. The sectors that typically absorb the most new grads - tech, media, professional services - have been slowing hiring for three years. Career services teams are scrambling to help students navigate this reality. The old playbook doesn't work when the fundamentals have shifted this dramatically. My take? Companies are in a holding pattern. It's a double whammy: free money dried up and AI has everyone scrambling to figure out what to do next. But despite companies flexing how they run on 100 "agents", AI still can't replace humans. So for the next 12 months, students need to: 💪 Prove they're more than a degree 🎯 Focus your applications on a few jobs (no spray and pray) 🤝 Network and have convos with people 🏋️ Do the extra thing to show you're worth a shot For career services teams? Ensure your support is accessible and consistent to keep students on track. They need you. Interest rates will likely drop over the next year. Companies will get clearer on what they need. And early-career hiring should rebound a little. But until then, it's up to universities to make sure they do everything to give their students an edge in their job search.