Energy Market Insights

We are grappling with geopolitical tensions amid the weakest U.S. crude oil inventory position in a generation – and Texas’ role on the global stage has never been more critical. As of June 13, 2025: 🔹 The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held 402 million barrels—equal to its June 1984 level, despite a U.S. economy and energy system that has increased in scale. 🔹 The SPR now makes up less than half of total U.S. crude inventories, per EIA data. 🔹 Commercial crude oil stocks stood at 421 million barrels, down 5% since mid-April and at the bottom of their five-year range. 🔹 At current consumption rates: ·      SPR volumes equate to under 20 days of national supply. ·      Commercial stocks equate to just over 20 days, but include pipeline fill that cannot be withdrawn without disrupting the distribution system. This context matters since markets are not just driven by volumes, but by perceived resilience. Recent tensions involving Iran and Israel have triggered greater price sensitivity than the 2019 Houthi missile strike that temporarily knocked 4.5 million barrels per day offline in Saudi Arabia. Today’s risks are more psychological and potentially more destabilizing. A scenario involving a sustained disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—through which ~20% of the world’s oil flows—plus a loss of Iran’s 1.7 million b/d of exports, would call for coordinated global action. Texas would matter more than ever in such a scenario. With our production capacity, export infrastructure, and operational agility, Texas energy producers are positioned to play a stabilizing role--not just commercially, but strategically. Key takeaways ·      Inventory levels matter—both in barrels and in perception. ·      The margin for error in the current supply system is low. ·      Texas production is not just an economic asset--it’s critical to global energy security. #EnergySecurity #OilAndGas #TexasEnergy

Should there be more histrionics about the govt #tariffs on the #renewable energy sector? The simple answer is 'yes'. I did a personal* deep dive using the 'journey of a #dollar' analysis; an assessment of how each dollar invested in a project flows, showing where the money goes and who captures what portion of value/profit. The images below - the journey of a 'renewable' dollar before and after tariffs - make some things obvious: - Most impacted will be Solar, then BESS, and then #Wind. - The tariffs increase cost/reduce margins for US companies, won't impact #Chinese companies, and adds money to the government's pockets. Yes, the US govt will get more money directly from US companies/customers who care about #renewables. This might be the goal. - The renewable sector least impacted by tariffs, Wind, is the one most hated by the current administration. Lots of local components in Wind. If energy dominance was the true goal, wouldn't we encourage more wind energy? - #Solar and #storage #BESS will be hammered, regardless of the maintenance of tax credit or not. 'Friendshoring' to places where we still have some goodwill will be necessary. Emphasis on 'friend'. *The above analysis is my personal view + based on estimates. When I'm not playing/coaching/watching soccer on the weekend, I dive into esoteric stuff like this 😁

📉 OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast: Tariffs, Oversupply, and a Fragile Consensus OPEC has revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast downward—from 1.45 million to 1.3 million barrels per day—citing growing concerns over U.S. tariffs and their ripple effects on global economic activity. Yet beyond the headline lies a more nuanced story: 1️⃣ Global Trade Pressures: The U.S. tariffs, particularly targeting Chinese imports, are casting a long shadow over global supply chains and industrial output. This weakens two key demand drivers for oil: transportation and manufacturing. Are we heading toward a slow-burn economic deceleration? 2️⃣ Paradox of Increased Output: Despite the downgraded forecast, OPEC increased supply in May—adding downward pressure on prices. Even more concerning is compliance slippage among members like Kazakhstan, which exceeded its production quota. This raises red flags about the bloc’s internal cohesion and credibility. 3️⃣ Divergence in Market Outlooks: OPEC remains relatively optimistic when compared to more cautious estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). This divergence may reflect a deeper uncertainty: Is OPEC's model still effective in a rapidly shifting energy landscape? 💡 Strategic Insight: We may be witnessing a transition where: -Oil markets are entering a phase of elastic demand, driven more by geopolitical volatility than by classical fundamentals. -OPEC’s influence is diluted by the rise of independent producers and a global pivot toward decarbonization and energy diversification. 🧭 The key question: Is this merely a short-term correction, or are we observing the early stages of a structural shift in how oil factors into global growth? #OilMarkets #OPEC #Tariffs #GlobalTrade

Trump’s trade tantrum slaps 50%+ duties on climate tech — from batteries to blades to boron. Global supply chains built climate tech. Tariffs will test how local they can get. Winners 👍 domestic battery makers, fusion futurists, and anyone with a US factory. Losers 👎 solar developers, Chinese inverters, and your LCOE model. Sightline Climate (CTVC) breaks down what a full-blown global trade war means for climate tech: https://lnkd.in/e2QkZz6U 🔋 Grid-scale battery storage: US tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion cells are set to jump 64.5%, making affordable energy storage much harder to deploy. 🚗 Electric vehicles: 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and parts and 54%+ tariff on Chinese EVs. ☀️ Solar panels: US imported ~95m panels last year, mostly from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand — now hit with 36–46% tariffs. ⚡ Transformers & grid tech: US imports 80%+ of large transformers, mainly from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs on steel and aluminum (25%) and tariff threats on finished goods raise costs. ☢️ Nuclear fuel: >90% of US uranium supply is imported — Canada supplies 27%, now subject to a 10% import tariff on Canadian energy exports. 💨 Wind turbines: Blades, towers, magnets, and gearboxes often sourced from Europe and Asia. Rare earths from China face 34–54% tariffs. 💧 Green hydrogen: Electrolyzers and parts (membranes, compressors, valves) primarily imported from Germany, Japan, South Korea — now facing 20–32% tariffs. 🧱 Carbon capture: CCS equipment is largely imported from the EU and Asia, now facing 25–30% tariffs. 🌡️ Geothermal: Turbines, drilling rigs, heat exchangers, etc. are often imported from Germany, Japan, and the EU. Tariffs now range from 20–32%, plus 25% on steel inputs. 🏠 Heat pumps + HVAC: Compressors and control units from Japan, Korea, EU now face 24–32% duties. 🛰️ Sensors + MRV tech: Drones, infrared sensors, electronics from China and Taiwan face 34%+ tariffs. 💽 Semiconductors + chips: Currently exempt — but flagged for possible future tariffs. US imports from Taiwan, Korea, Japan remain high. 🧪 Critical minerals: Most raw and refined critical minerals — including Li, Co, Cu, U, and rare earths — were exempted. But China hit back with export controls on rare earths, threatening US access to vital EV, wind, and defense components.

As we start 2025, we are filled with a renewed optimism about the outlook for the broad energy sector, including oil & gas, power, and select new energy sources and technologies. "The Energy Transition" era—i.e., the narrow definition which treated net zero carbon emissions as the priority—decisively ended in 2024. Policy makers, investors, and executives are recognizing the urgent need to turn back to what energy has always been about: abundance and reliability as the priorities followed closely by affordability and geopolitical security. Environmental and climate considerations will remain an important part of the conversation but no longer dominate the narrative in what was a perverse inversion of energy’s hierarchy of needs. We say goodbye and good riddance to the failed “climate-is-all-that-matters” ideology of the last 5-6 years. The biggest themes we see for 2025 are as follows: Energy Scenario Normalization: Net zero is fading fast as the defining energy scenario narrative. Countries will solve for reliability, affordability, and geopolitical security first and foremost, which, paradoxically in our view, will eventually spur broad-based decarbonization as billion-person-scale economies seek energy sources that they can control. Power Surge: Power has become arguably the super-cycle growth opportunity in energy. In the 2000s, it was the emergence of China/BRICs that drove energy. The power growth opportunity is being driven by (1) aging power infrastructure, growing share of intermittent resources, and early retirement of dispatchable power sources in developed areas; (2) rising EM energy demand; and (3) turbocharging of demand globally due to data center growth. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to take advantage of a power market super-cycle. Energy Sources and Technologies: We see natural gas as a big winner of the shift away from "The Energy Transition" coupled with a power super-cycle. We also anticipate continued robust growth in solar, which has been overly categorized as a “climate action” energy source. Solar has positive attributes around geopolitical security and modularity that we see as more important than its low-carbon attributes. Both natural gas and solar we see as big winners in a power super cycle. As broad-based solutions, we are less enthusiastic about Big Wind and hydrogen (niche opportunities exist). For future areas to watch, nuclear is gaining momentum and we are open-minded to the potential for geothermal and long-duration battery storage economics to eventually prove viable at scale. The future role of coal is hotly debated. Thus far, its death has been greatly exaggerated. We have long expected EVs to experience L-T growth, but fall well short of the aggressive “hockey stick” forecasts touted just a few years ago. Signs of progress on autonomous driving could be the key to a more significant disruption to transportation markets. https://lnkd.in/enstxgb9

I usually talk about clean tech, but we need to talk about tariffs. The market response so far has been like another pandemic has hit us. Maybe worse. Historically, tariffs were a major source of government revenue in the 19th century when America lacked an income tax system. However, this was a time when the economy was smaller, less complex, and far less innovative than today. Returning to high tariff levels from over a century ago feels like turning back the clock on progress. Today, America’s economic strength is built on free trade and technological advancements, not isolationism. What Tariffs Mean for Consumers -Recent tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices by 2–2.3%, adding $3,800 in annual costs for the average household. -Industries like housing, vehicles, healthcare, and even clothing are seeing price hikes. Apparel alone could rise by 17%. -JPMorgan estimates these tariffs amount to a $660 billion tax increase—the largest in recent history. How will this impact clean tech? Clean technology is particularly vulnerable. Tariffs on imported components for solar panels and wind turbines could raise project costs by up to 10%, making renewable energy less competitive. -A million-dollar shipment of Chinese solar panels now costs $1.34 million due to tariffs. -Over 10.5 GW of planned solar installations have already been canceled since earlier tariff policies began—enough to power 1.8 million homes. While some argue that tariffs could spur domestic manufacturing, the question remains: how long will it take? And at what cost? Many Americans cannot afford to "ride the wave" of economic disruption caused by these policies. For clean tech especially, this is a critical moment—we risk stifling innovation just as adoption was gaining momentum. Any thoughts on how we as consumers and how the clean tech industry will survive this? Please share. #tariffs #cleantech #economy #recession

🌍💡 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱? 📣 The IEA’s Global Energy Review 2025 highlights that while AI is a major contributor to the rise in energy consumption, it’s far from the whole story. Here are the key factors shaping the future of our energy grid: 1️⃣ AI & Data Centers AI-driven electricity usage is expected to more than double within five years. This surge, powered by data centers, plays a significant role in this trend. 2️⃣ Electrification of Everyday Life From electric vehicles (EVs) to building heating, cooking, and the rising use of air conditioning, electrification is reshaping how we consume energy globally. 3️⃣ Regional Differences Emerging economies and developing nations, led by China, are driving electricity growth (up 7% in China alone in 2024). On the other hand, the EU and US are seeing slower rates of increase. 4️⃣ The Shift to Clean Energy 80% of new electricity generation in 2024 came from renewables and nuclear power, signaling the steady decoupling of economic growth from emissions. 5️⃣ Future-Forward Solutions Smart grids and demand response are essential in managing surging demand and optimizing energy efficiency. ⚡ Takeaway: AI may dominate the headlines, but the energy story is one of complexity and opportunity. By balancing innovative tech like AI with clean energy solutions and more competent grid management, we can meet growing demand sustainably. 💡 The full report (a great annual analysis) can be found here: https://buff.ly/5xRXD4F. 🧐 What are your thoughts on managing future energy needs? Share below! ⬇️ #EnergySector #AI #CleanEnergy #Sustainability

In a #Polyconflict world, it's only a matter of time before climate change shifts from being a progressive issue to being a security issue - think oil shocks in the 70s and the push for energy independence/supply chain security after that. This report from the Carlyle Group about the 'New Joule Order' confirms my suspicions. We are entering what Carlyle calls The New Joule Order, a global energy paradigm defined not by sustainability goals or economic efficiency--but by security. As the postwar Bretton Woods system fractures, and energy independence becomes a strategic imperative, nations are reshaping how energy is produced, delivered, and invested in. The core insight? The energy transition accelerates when security, not just sustainability, is the driver. We've seen this before: between 1973--1993, energy security concerns led to a faster decarbonization shift than the climate-motivated efforts of the past decade. Today, as trade in fossil fuels peaks and geopolitical risks rise, countries are doubling down on localized, secure energy systems--especially renewables, nuclear, and domestic fossil fuels. Carlyle argues this shift replaces the "green premium" with a "security premium." Delivered energy--joules--now matters more than how energy is produced. Investors are being advised to move away from the binary of "green vs brown" toward portfolios structured around fixed vs variable returns. The future lies in diversified energy ecosystems combining renewables, fossil fuels, and nuclear--mirroring national energy strategies that prioritize resilience over purity. Electrification and digitalization remain essential themes, but they are now being reframed within this logic of sovereignty, stability, and strategic optionality. AI, too, will be energy-hungry--further reinforcing the need for reliable, local power. In short: in an era of higher rates and fractured geopolitics, security-aligned energy assets will drive both resilience and returns. Message in a bottle: climate as a security threat may get much bigger play than climate as an SDG and will be embedded in a very different kind of energy politics that may well emerge out of China....? Link in first comment.

This edition delivers an urgent and insightful look into how recently imposed global tariffs are influencing the oil and gas sector. With volatility rising in crude oil markets, this report examines the ripple effects on trade, pricing, international competition, and long-term strategic planning. Backed by top-tier sources such as Reuters, Business Insider, and the Journal of Petroleum Technology, this article breaks down: 📉 The immediate market response to new U.S. tariffs 🛢️ How exemptions for oil products still create strategic vulnerabilities 🌍 Global shifts in trade flow, alliances, and energy sourcing ⚠️ Supply chain stressors from tariffs on industrial inputs (like steel) 🔁 Future-facing implications for energy security and diversification It concludes with actionable foresight for stakeholders—from brokers and traders to policymakers and buyers—on how to navigate today’s uncertainty with agility and compliance. 💡 Why This Edition Matters: Explains the real-world impacts of trade policy on energy pricing and logistics Sheds light on global economic power plays and retaliation strategies Helps professionals in oil and gas prepare for long-term shifts in market dynamics

In the short term, policies such as deregulation and increased support for fossil fuels under the Trump administration could create a more favorable environment for oil and gas companies. Reduced compliance costs, fewer restrictions on drilling, and a strong emphasis on U.S. energy independence may stimulate growth in domestic production and enhance global competitiveness. However, the long-term landscape is considerably more complex. The global transition toward sustainability, driven in part by climate change concerns, is exerting increasing pressure on the sector. The rising demand for renewable energy, coupled with political and regulatory pushes in many regions to reduce emissions, will eventually require oil and gas companies to adapt. This may involve diversifying their portfolios, investing in cleaner technologies, or pivoting toward alternative energy sources to remain competitive in a rapidly changing energy market. Trade risks also play a significant role in the industry's outlook, particularly as global markets become more interconnected. The "America First" trade policies pursued by the Trump administration could disrupt international supply chains, leading to price volatility and potential trade barriers that affect both oil exports and imports. For instance, tariffs on steel and aluminum could increase costs for infrastructure projects such as pipelines, while strained diplomatic relations with other oil-producing nations might destabilize supply agreements or introduce market uncertainty. Additionally, shifts in the political landscape—particularly as younger generations become more vocal in advocating for climate action—could drive changes in consumer preferences and legal frameworks. Even under an administration more favorable to oil and gas, there is growing pressure from investors, governments, and the public to address environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Companies that fail to address these concerns may face reputational damage, legal challenges, or financial setbacks as global sustainability efforts intensify. While the oil and gas sector may experience short-term gains from policies that favor fossil fuels, the industry's most significant challenge lies in balancing immediate financial benefits with long-term strategic planning. This includes navigating the global energy transition, adapting to political and regulatory shifts, and responding to increasing demand for cleaner energy solutions. The ability of companies to remain agile and forward-thinking in the face of these challenges will be crucial to their long-term viability and success.