Understanding The Impact Of Global Events On Ecommerce

During times of tariffs and trade uncertainty, e-commerce businesses face significant challenges, including increased costs due to import duties, unpredictable pricing for goods, potential delays in shipments, and consumer anxiety about price fluctuations, often leading to hesitant buying behavior and impacting overall sales and business planning. Key impacts on e-commerce during tariff uncertainty: 1. Higher product prices: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, forcing e-commerce sellers to raise prices for consumers, which can lead to reduced demand, especially for price-sensitive items. 2. Supply chain disruptions: Fluctuating trade policies can lead to delays in shipments, causing inventory issues and impacting delivery times, potentially frustrating customers. 3. Market volatility: Uncertainty about future tariff changes can make it difficult for e-commerce businesses to plan inventory levels and pricing strategies, leading to potential losses if they miscalculate market trends. 4. Consumer hesitation: When consumers are aware of potential price increases due to tariffs, they may delay purchases, leading to decreased sales for e-commerce businesses. 5. Shifting sourcing strategies: Businesses may need to explore alternative sourcing options to mitigate tariff impacts, potentially requiring new supplier relationships and logistics adjustments. How e-commerce businesses can navigate and action tariff uncertainty: A1. Transparency with customers: Clearly communicate price changes to customers, explaining the impact of tariffs on product costs. A2. Diversify sourcing: Explore options to source goods from multiple countries to minimize dependence on a single source impacted by tariffs. A3. Inventory management: Optimize inventory levels to manage fluctuations in demand and potential supply chain disruptions. A4. Data analysis: Monitor market trends and customer behavior closely to adapt pricing and product offerings accordingly. A5. Engage with policymakers: Stay informed about trade policy developments and advocate for policies that support e-commerce businesses.

Marketplace Briefing: Tariff Turmoil Reshaping eCommerce — What Amazon Sellers Must Know The April 2025 tariff hikes are already disrupting global eCommerce. Brands importing from China are facing steep new costs and operational challenges that will impact everything from pricing to fulfillment strategies. Key Data Points: ▪ 125% tariff now applies to all Chinese imports ▪ De minimis shipments (under $800) now face 90% tariffs and increased per-shipment fees ($25 → $150 by June 1) ▪ 83% of eCommerce executives surveyed fear these tariffs threaten company survival ▪ 64% plan to pass at least 25% of tariff costs directly to consumers ▪ 56% are shifting to domestic or alternative country sourcing ▪ 53% expect tariffs to persist for more than 3 years How Brands Are Preparing: 🔹Sourcing Diversification: Majority shifting away from China to countries like Vietnam, Mexico, Cambodia, and South Korea. 🔹Pricing Adjustments: Increasing prices to offset tariff-driven costs. 🔹Stockpiling Inventory: Building up product supply ahead of additional hikes. 🔹Bundling Services: Adding value and raising order size to protect margins. 🔹Seeking Partners: 88% of brands are engaging consultants and tech platforms to help navigate cross-border logistics and compliance. What Amazon Sellers Need to Know: ▪ China-reliant categories will feel this first. Apparel, fast fashion, toys, and accessories are particularly vulnerable, as many rely heavily on Chinese production. ▪ Expect price increases and tighter margins. Many sellers will face tough decisions: raise prices or absorb higher costs. Both can negatively impact conversion rates and competitiveness on Amazon. ▪ Proactive communication is critical. Brands need to prepare messaging for customers around potential price increases and shipping delays, especially in Q3 and Q4. ▪ Consider alternative sourcing strategies now. If products are still China-reliant, it’s time to start contingency planning to avoid being caught in extended tariff wars. ▪ Monitor FBA inbound fees and costs closely. Amazon’s own costs may rise as tariffs impact import rates, which could lead to increased FBA and fulfillment fees later this year. Categories Most At Risk: 🔹Fashion (especially fast fashion and accessories) 🔹Electronics and lower-ticket tech 🔹Toys and seasonal novelty products 🔹Home goods sourced primarily from China Bottom Line: Tariffs are not a short-term shock — they’re shaping up to be a multiyear challenge. Brands that diversify supply chains, price strategically, and prepare operationally will be best positioned to protect profitability and market share in the face of escalating costs.

Well, the day has arrived, and a seismic shift in global e-commerce just hit U.S. shoppers... Tariffs will now be applied to all e-commerce packages entering the U.S. Since 2016, when the de minimis threshold was raised to $800, ordering from abroad became easy and tariff-free - growing exponentially. Country of origin? Whatever. Expansion of de minimus played a major role in fueling the growth of direct-to-consumer off-shore e-commerce models. Shein and Temu may be the biggest examples - innovating their supply chain to exploit this even further - but everyone from European and North American brands to marketplace sellers on Amazon and Shopify DTC "brands" benefited by marketing goods to American consumers at sharp prices - with hundreds of 777's packed with nothing but cargo arriving in the U.S. everyday from China alone. That ended Friday. (*It ended in May for China-originating goods, but today ends for goods from everywhere.) 🚨 Now, every package shipped from overseas faces duties entering the U.S., adding 30–60% to prices for many goods. The impact? > International brands are halting U.S. sales or scrambling to move inventory U.S. stateside. > Carriers like FedEx & UPS must collect duties, often leaving U.S. consumers with surprise bills. > Consumers face higher costs, fewer choices, and frustration. The implications? Beyond the inflation and consumption implications (I will leave that to the economists), we are likely to see: Consolidation. Amazon, Walmart, and other large scale retailers and brands will benefit, while smaller brands and sellers leveraging de minimus loose. With their pricing power, supply chains, and U.S.-based logistics and fulfillment, the largest will capture even more share, able to shield customers from tariff shocks while raising prices. Marketplace models will take a hit, no longer fueled by cheap off shore goods. A renewed emphasis on "mid-market and above" in commerce and marketing tech. Smaller DTC brands and sellers will struggle, a key strategy eroded. As cross-border friction rises, more consumers will default to “safe, predictable” platforms that guarantee fast delivery and clear pricing without any nasty surprises. SMBs will be at a massive disadvantage, again. This will have implications for platforms and commerce tech catering to SMBs - many of whom had de minimus related strategies at their core. Like many, I called for rethinking of de minimis back in early 2024 as a way to stem the erosion of American retail and "fast-fashion, knock-off" brand erosion. It was out of hand. But the implications of this wholesale approach, eliminating de minimis for goods entering the U.S. from everywhere are significant and may well weigh on the economy in a host of ways - impacting the consumer and SMBs most especially. 

TikTok Shop's US sales dropped 25% after Trump's tariffs hit in March. Chinese sellers are scrambling, and smaller brands are feeling the squeeze. Here's how the e-commerce game just changed for you: 1. Tariff Tsunami: Some Chinese products now face a whopping 145% tariff. That's not a typo. 2. Seller Exodus: New seller onboarding has plummeted. Many are hesitant to ship to US warehouses. 3. Pricing Chaos: Fluctuating tariffs make it near impossible to plan logistics and pricing strategies. 4. US Companies Aren't Immune: Even Seattle-based Wyze paid $255k in tariffs on a $167k shipment. 5. Small Businesses Hit Hard: While big players absorb costs, smaller merchants are struggling to stay afloat. 6. Platform Pivot: TikTok's restructuring leadership and expanding to new markets like Mexico and Brazil. 7. Industry-Wide Impact: It's not just TikTok. Shein and Temu are scrambling too. 8. Supply Chain Shake-up: Toy merchants, especially those selling plushies, are frantically seeking alternatives to Chinese manufacturing. 9. Market Resilience: Despite the drop, year-over-year sales are still up. The market's adapting, not dying. 10. Future Uncertainty: With regulatory pressures mounting, TikTok's US future remains unclear. This isn't just about TikTok. It's a seismic shift in global e-commerce. Time to reassess your supply chain, diversify your manufacturing, and get creative with pricing. The e-commerce landscape has changed. Are you ready to seize the opportunities ahead? #EcommerceTrends #TariffImpact #SupplyChainSolutions #DigitalMarketplace #SellerChallenges #BusinessAdaptation #MarketDisruption #GlobalTradeShift #InnovationInRetail #SmallBizSurvival

If you don't have people on the ground in China right now, you're flying blind with your supply chain. And that's about to become a much bigger problem. Everyone thinks a 40% tariff means you raise prices 40%.  They're wrong, and it's going to hurt a lot of businesses. The real impact is more complicated and potentially devastating. Let me share what's happening right now: A friend who makes children's products just had Walmart freeze her entire purchase order. No warning. No timeline for resuming. Just "we're pausing everything." She's not alone. Retailers are bracing for impact by halting new inventory commitments. But here's what worries me most: Brands without local representatives in manufacturing countries are operating with dangerous blind spots. Think about it. If plastic costs drop 20% in China tomorrow, would your supplier proactively reduce your costs? Of course not. Without someone physically present to monitor market conditions and negotiate on your behalf, you're at the mercy of suppliers who have zero incentive to pass savings to you. What should brands do right now? 📦 First, diversify both your sales channels AND your supplier locations. Relying on one retailer or one country is too risky. 📦 Second, find partners with boots on the ground in your manufacturing regions or hire dedicated personnel. 📦 Third, plan for the worst but remain nimble. The brands that survive won't be the biggest. They'll be the most adaptable. The coming months will reshape supply chains permanently.  The winners will be those who can see what's really happening, not just what suppliers tell them is happening. #ecommerce #tariffs #smallbusiness #economy #entrepreneurship #cpg

$22 Billion Dollar Impact for the Air Cargo Industry is our latest modeling. Our firm, Cirrus Global Advisors, Inc, has been modeling and forecasting the reduction in both cross-border parcels and air freight demand as a result of proposed (and now, implemented) regulatory changes: Focusing on the sensitivity of consumer behavior relative to online prices due to both tariffs and incremental brokerage costs, consumer friction on checkout, delivery speeds, sensitivity based on types of products sold on a website/across the parcel industry, and evolving regulatory changes (both tariffs and de minimis), as well as forecasting the speed in which major industry volume producers were diversifying their business models with new points of production and shifting to traditional, non-airfreight models for incremental growth. Further to this, our product then focuses on re-deployment of the global air cargo fleet, and in turn, how that impacts global air freight yields globally. We model scenarios of 1) 3 Year Freighter Retirements vs Orders & Conversions 2) Bankruptcies and Passenger Supply 3) Global Yield Impacts. Our models primarily focused on refining the China-US cross-border e-commerce, but the underlying factors and demand analysis are applicable to all global parcels. We focused on China because, as we have seen, this has been the primary target of the current US administration. In addition, EU is evaluating regulatory changes for de minimis that will also hamper demand on the second largest trade. But CN-US e-commerce already starts the fall of many dominoes, if you will. Our original models, showed a modest $3B impact to global air freight over the next three years based on various ideas in the US Congress. Then we were in the $10B range. Then Trump's aggressive China positioning and tariff threats pushed us over $15B. Our latest model, which is version 24, is now estimating a $22B impact to global air freight industry and direct ancillary air cargo services over the next 3 years, based on what we know, today. We also model revenue impacts to cross border retailers, but don't include these numbers for a variety of factors... ie, downside for Shein is often picked up with upside for Zara or Gap. While there is not a 1:1 pickup of China volumes shifting to established brands, our confidence in these numbers weakens. We then have assumptions based on assumptions based on modeling, and cannot stand confidently behind those numbers. We also do not believe that 104% tariff on China will hold indefinitely, nor will the new US-China rate of 84% hold. We do believe de minimis elimination will hold. In addition to the $22B number, we also forecast downline impact to middle-mile, LTL, and final mile delivery companies, that is beyond $22B. But again, if a Shein order is replaced by a Zara online order, the impacts are less direct. Reach Out if you want to learn more. #crossborder #ecommerce #deminimis #tariffs #CNUStrade #airfreight

What a day in the world of global trade! This breakdown is geared towards ecommerce/DTC brands. This is a rapidly evolving situation but this is a summary of what we know so far, what is still unclear/tbd and who’s impacted and how. What do we know so far? + De minimis going away Tuesday for China, Canada and Mexico made goods + Canada (w/some exceptions) got hit with a 25% duty + Canada retaliated and put a 25% tariff on US goods (goes into effect over 2 phases and 3 weeks) + China got hit with 10% tariffs but these are on top of relatively high tariffs they had before (upwards of 39%, so this would bring the higher end of the range to 49%) +US threatening additional tariffs if Canada retaliates (which Canada did), so… What is still unclear or not announced yet? + It seems the $800 de minimis will stay in tact for non-CA, MX, CN origin goods. So for example, you’d still be able to ship an ecom order of a product made in Vietnam duty free from Canada. But some have speculated that since the stated intent is for drug enforcement, why would the country of origin matter more than from which country the shipment comes from? + Canada has a $150CAD duty minimis for goods transiting from the US (made in US or otherwise). What will happen to this de minimis? + Mexico has said they will implement retaliatory tariffs but not exact figures Who is impacted and how? + China made product + Ships DTC cross-border from China or Canada/Mexico to the US —> These brands need to immediately start importing their products to the US and fulfilling locally as there will be somewhere between a new incremental 10-49% duty rate applied to the sales costs. + China made product but fulfills locally in the US and ships cross border to Canada and Mexico: —> US sales: Incrementally higher import duties by 10% on the COGS, not too bad. —> Into CA, Mx from US: If your product is under ~$100USD, I would wait and see what happens to the Canada de minimis —> If your product is over ~$100USD, and you have the scale to fulfill locally in Canada, I would do that, because then at least you’re importing into Canada at the COGS valuation and paying duties off this lower amount vs. having to pay the 25% duty rate on a retail value. My company Passport helps with this. + US made product, shipping cross-border to Canada and Mexico —> If your product AOV is under ~$100USD, I would wait and see what happens to the Canada de minimis —> If your product AOV is over ~$100USD, I would fulfill locally in Canada (per reason above) + Non-US, CA, MX or China made product shipped to US DTC cross-border: —> This category seems safe for now. As in the US De Minimis for items made in say Vietnam can still transit to the US duty free under $800.