Consultant for climate change, water resources, DRR, risk assessment, food security and environment.
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𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 Climate change increases not only the likelihood of hazards such as floods and storms but also their intensity and spatial reach. Since most infrastructure projects are designed for lifespans of up to a hundred years, it is essential to integrate climate risks into both design and maintenance planning. Traditionally, engineers have relied on historical data to estimate future risks. For example, the likely 100-year flood was calculated from past records, assuming that natural patterns remain constant. The core assumption behind this approach was that the future would behave like the past. This assumption held true until the late 20th century, when climate change began to invalidate it. The climate is now shifting too rapidly for the past to serve as a reliable guide. Therefore, climate change must be considered when estimating design parameters such as flood magnitude or peak discharge. For instance, the design flow for a dam spillway or the capacity of stormwater drains should account for future climate projections. Ignoring these changes can result in under-designed structures that fail under new conditions. As flood intensity increases, so does its spatial extent. Higher floods affect broader areas, expanding floodplains and putting new zones at risk. This expansion raises the cost of infrastructure development since higher safety factors or stronger materials are now required. Governments and institutions must allocate larger budgets for both constructing new infrastructure and maintaining existing ones. Existing infrastructure faces similar challenges. Structures built decades ago are now exposed to higher stresses than they were designed for, which increases the risk of deterioration and failure. This not only raises maintenance costs but also threatens human lives and economic stability. The dam break in Libya in 2023 is a tragic example. Beyond flooding, climate change alters river flows, reduces water availability, and increases the duration of dry seasons, affecting irrigation systems and hydropower generation. Urban drainage networks can be overwhelmed by intense storms, while rising temperatures reduce road lifespan and raise energy demand for cooling facilities. To conclude, it is now clear that the future will not resemble the past. Relying solely on historical data for infrastructure design is no longer practical. Engineers and policymakers must integrate climate projections into every stage of the infrastructure lifecycle. Doing so not only prevents failures but also protects public finances and ensures the sustainability of investments. Building climate-resilient infrastructure is therefore not only a technical requirement but also an economic necessity. The cost of inaction will always exceed the cost of preparedness.