Community Impact Analysis

Across the Horn of Africa, climate shocks now unfold as compound crises. The 2020–2023 drought left over 46 million people food insecure and eroded their livelihoods. Before recovery could begin, the 2023–2024 El Niño rains triggered widespread flooding, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Drought–flood whiplash is no longer exceptional; it is the region’s operating climate. My research with the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action in northern Kenya reveals that pastoralist communities are already adapting to these shifts with remarkable flexibility. From star calendars to animal behaviour and vegetation cues, herders read a rich tapestry of indicators and now complement these with radio forecasts and satellite data. They do not wait for a single forecast or a rigid trigger. Instead, they adjust grazing routes, stagger herd movements, and pool resources as signals evolve. This flexible anticipatory action challenges the dominant model of fixed thresholds and single-event triggers. It shows that forecast information only has value if it is trusted, timely, and open to renegotiation on the ground. Climate Information Services (CIS) enable this agility by translating global climate models into local, impact-based advisories. Regional centres, such as ICPAC, provide seasonal outlooks to guide rangeland management and food security planning. Communities use this information to develop innovative solutions by layering these scientific forecasts onto their own adaptive calendars. Formal Anticipatory Action (AA) frameworks can learn from this. Kenya’s 2024–2029 AA Roadmap is vital. Fundamentally, it will deliver more if it incorporates flexibility by allowing rolling triggers, locally defined indicators, and iterative decision-making, rather than treating early action as a one-off release of funds. The cost of inaction rises with every season. Investing in flexible, forecast-driven anticipatory systems is both fiscally prudent and politically essential. For governments, regional bodies, and development partners, the way forward is clear: move beyond crisis response and embed adaptive, plural, and community-grounded anticipatory action at the heart of policy and planning. In the Horn of Africa’s climate future, acting early and being flexible is the most innovative and cost-effective form of adaptation. Photo courtesy of United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

They came with clipboards and questions. Told us our voices mattered. Then disappeared. No follow-up. No report. No proof we were ever more than a data point. It’s a familiar pattern. Vommunities giving their time, their stories, their trust… only to be left out of the analysis, the credit, and the change. But research doesn’t have to extract. It can empower. The Participatory Action Research (PAR) Toolkit offers a different approach, one grounded in respect, shared power, and long-term connection. Developed by community researchers with academic partners, this guide doesn’t just tell you what to do,it shows you how to: Build trust before collecting data → Start with relationships, not research agendas. Follow the community’s lead → Let local voices shape the questions that get asked—and the solutions that get prioritised. Use creative, inclusive methods → From story circles to role plays to community mapping, gather data in ways that feel natural and empowering. Co-analyse, co-write, co-present → This isn’t about handing over transcripts. It’s about sharing meaning-making power. If you're a facilitator, researcher, evaluator or community leader tired of extractive models and ready to do research that builds relationships, not resentment, this toolkit is for you. --- 🔥 Follow me for similar content

Proud to unveil IOM’s latest flagship publication on #ClimateMigration! Over the past decade, more than 200 million people have been displaced by #ClimateChange. Yet, there has been limited understanding of the demographic and socio-economic profiles of those displaced by disasters—until now. We often hear that climate change impacts the most vulnerable. But to what extent? And how? Some key insights: 🔶 Pastoral communities are disproportionately affected: 51% of areas impacted by drought displacement are grazing lands. 🔶 Drought-displaced populations face severe economic challenges: Their income levels are 82% lower than the global average. 🔶 Children make up to 26% of affected populations in aeas impacted by storm displacement. This publication goes beyond the statistics. It’s a reminder to tailor our actions to truly serve the people and communities most affected. Let’s work together to turn data into action. ➡️ https://t.co/sQ3rbQPFyV IOM Data Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)

One of the most interesting findings from the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer Report is how people decide who to believe when it comes to brands. 84% trust friends and family. 80% trust customers like themselves. 68% trust customer reviews. And then it drops. 63% for brand employees, 59% for journalists, 58% for CEOs, and 58% for influencers. It’s a clear signal: trust flows horizontally. People rely more on peers and communities than on top-down voices. Gone are the days when a celebrity endorsement or an influencer post could automatically drive purchase. When the same face endorses multiple products, it becomes harder for audiences to know what’s genuine and what’s just transactional. The audience has become smarter. Trust is now the new currency for conversations. Brands that solve for it will stand out. Some are already doing this by building authentic communities, empowering real customers to share their stories, and showing up consistently in ways that feel credible. Trust is slow to build and fast to lose. And in today’s environment, it might just be the most valuable differentiator a brand can have.

Why Small Developers Build Big Trust When people think about development, the image that comes to mind is usually big: big projects, big firms, big capital. But in many neighborhoods, especially legacy Black communities, bigger is not better. Because when trust has been broken by displacement, disinvestment, and decades of promises that never materialized, it’s often small developers who can begin to rebuild it. The Trust Gap Development is not just about financing and construction. It’s about relationships. In too many communities, “development” has meant: • Homes bulldozed in the name of urban renewal • Promises of jobs or amenities that never showed up • Rising property taxes that forced out long-time residents That history lingers. And when a new project comes in with glossy renderings but no real connection to the neighborhood, people feel the distance. Trust isn’t built with a slide deck. It’s built on the ground. Why Small Developers Matter Small-scale and emerging developers are uniquely positioned to bridge this gap. Here’s why: • Proximity. Small developers are more likely to live in or near the communities they build in. They share the same schools, grocery stores, and sidewalks. That proximity breeds accountability. • Flexibility. Without the pressure of 300-unit deals, small developers can pursue projects that fit the block, a duplex here, a corner store renovation there. These incremental moves feel less like disruption and more like repair. • Relationships. Trust is built face-to-face. Smaller developers often know the residents, listen to the stories, and design projects in conversation with the community instead of in isolation. In short: big developers might bring capital. But small developers bring credibility. What This Could Unlock If cities and institutions empowered small developers at scale, we could see: • More housing delivered in places that big developers overlook • Incremental, context-sensitive projects that blend into neighborhoods rather than erase them • Development led by people of color, women, and first-generation builders who reflect the communities they serve This isn’t about pitting big against small. Both are needed. But when it comes to repairing trust in legacy communities, the work starts small. The Call to Action If we want equitable development, we can’t just chase big numbers and big deals. We have to invest in the people doing the small, steady, relationship-driven work of building trust. Because in communities where trust has been broken, sometimes the most radical thing we can do is build small. What’s one way your city or institution could better support small-scale developers?

🔎 ICYMI: We talk about #trust all the time. But do we really understand it? And more importantly, can we measure it? 👉 Trust provides a license to operate for institutions. It drives participation, compliance, and collective problem-solving. Yet for too long, trust has remained an abstract ideal — hard to define, harder to act on. We partnered with the NYC Civic Engagement Commission to change that. 📘 Our new report offers a practical framework for making trust measurable and actionable. Instead of vague notions, we focus on: ✔️ Observable manifestations — how trust shows up in emotions and behaviors (like confidence, belonging, or civic engagement) ✔️ Drivers of trust — the direct experiences and institutional interventions that shape it ✔️ A 3-phase approach — to baseline, analyze, and strengthen trust through targeted, measurable interventions 🚸 We apply this framework to real-world settings — from participatory budgeting to parks departments — showing how public institutions can measure, earn and sustain trust. 👉 Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eg4iV_hV (new URL!) (✍️co-authored with Andrew Zahuranec and Oscar Romero) #CivicTrust #PublicSectorInnovation #DataForGood #TrustMetrics #GovLab #NYC #CivicEngagement #MeasurementMatters

🌐 Accurate weather forecasts save lives, protect economies, and enhance community resilience. More data means better forecasts. Yet many regions remain “blind spots.”  The Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) seeks to close these gaps in the global observation system. I'm excited that new impact experiments carried out by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF show that investing in basic weather and climate observations in under-resourced countries improves the accuracy of weather forecasts both locally and globally.   ✅ Africa sees the greatest benefits: Forecast uncertainty decreases by more than 30 percent over Africa with new investments.  ✅ Pacific Islands matter: Forecasts uncertainty decreases by up to 20 percent in the Pacific region.  ✅ Upper-air data is crucial: Radiosonde (weather balloon) data has an outsized impact, especially in the tropics.  ✅ Local investment, global impact: While local improvements are observed over short timeframes (12 hours), forecast improvements extend beyond borders, benefiting people around the world.  More details: 📎 https://lnkd.in/dN-x3-jd Florence Rabier Florian Pappenberger Thomas Asare Markus Repnik World Meteorological Organization

Trust collapsed after one missed deadline They delivered millions in savings together. Then one critical project failed. I watched my client Sarah's (have seeked their permission and changed their name for confidentiality) team transform from celebrating quarterly wins to exchanging terse emails within weeks. During our first coaching session, they sat at opposite ends of the table, avoiding eye contact. "We used to finish each other's sentences," Sarah confided. "Now we can barely finish a meeting without tension." Sound familiar? This frustration isn't about skills—it's about broken trust. In The Thin Book of Trust, Charles Feltman provides the framework that helped us diagnose what was happening. Trust, he explains, isn't mysterious—it breaks down into four measurable elements: ✅ Care – Sarah's team stopped checking in on each other's wellbeing ✅ Sincerity – Their communications became guarded and political ✅ Reliability – Missed deadlines created a cycle of lowered expectations ✅ Competence – They began questioning each other's abilities after setbacks The breakthrough came when I had them map which specific element had broken for each relationship. The pattern was clear: reliability had cracked first, then everything else followed. Three months later, this same team presented their recovery strategy to leadership. Their transformation wasn't magic—it came from deliberately rebuilding trust behaviors, starting with keeping small promises consistently. My video walks you through this exact framework. Because when teams fracture, the question isn't "Why is everyone so difficult?" but rather: "Which trust element needs rebuilding first—and what's my next concrete step?" Which trust element (care, sincerity, reliability, competence) do you find breaks down most often in struggling teams? #humanresources #workplace #team #performance #cassandracoach

Opinion: Why Risk and Governance Must Be Front and Centre in First Nations Leadership By Nicole Brown There’s been a renewed interest in good governance and best practice across First Nations organisations — and rightly so. As the stakes get higher, so too must our standards. Whether we’re managing land, culture, community services or enterprise, the risks we face are real. But perhaps none more so than the risk to reputation when transparency and accountability are lacking, and community trust begins to erode. In our cultural context, reputation isn’t just about public image — it’s about the strength of our relationships. When trust is broken, it doesn’t just impact one board meeting or one funding decision. It sends shockwaves through generations. Our Elders lose confidence, our young people turn away, and the very fabric of our community weakens. We must be honest about where things have gone wrong. Closed-door decisions. Infrequent or inaccessible reporting. Community voices sidelined. Poor handling of conflict and cultural obligations. These issues aren’t just governance failures — they’re risks that, left unchecked, threaten the legitimacy of our leadership. Strong governance in the First Nations space means more than balancing budgets or following policy. It means embedding cultural governance alongside Western systems. It means making decisions that are accountable to our people — and delivering those decisions in ways that make sense to mob. It means elevating transparency as a cultural value, not just a corporate one. Risk management is not a tick-box process. It’s about anticipating harm — to reputation, relationships, and long-term impact — and taking action early. It’s about creating safe pathways for feedback and ensuring there are clear mechanisms for the community to raise concerns and see them addressed. Accountability, when done right, is empowering. It reminds us who we serve. It strengthens our legitimacy. And it makes us better leaders — not weaker ones. The greatest risk facing our organisations isn’t running out of funding. It’s running out of community faith. It’s time we raise the bar — not because government tells us to, but because our people deserve it. It’s time to create governance systems that reflect who we are, where we come from, and where we want to go. Systems built on truth-telling, responsibility, and care. Because real leadership is not about power — it’s about trust. And trust must be earned every single day.

When we talk about #climateaction, the focus is often on infrastructure, technology, and policy. Yet the most resilient societies rely on something less visible but equally critical: strong #communities. In the #MiddleEast, social cohesion has long been a natural resilience system enabling faster recovery from shocks, safeguarding livelihoods, and keeping value within local economies. Examples from the region show the power of community in climate resilience: - Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia: Farmers have revived ancient irrigation systems, sharing water resources collectively. This heritage-based approach reduces drought vulnerability while strengthening cultural identity. - Farasan Islands, Saudi Arabia: Fishing communities regulate catch levels through local agreements that align with national marine protection, helping ecosystems adapt to rising sea temperatures. - Liwa, UAE: Date farming cooperatives pool resources for irrigation and storage, protecting livelihoods during extreme heat. These are examples showing that climate resilience is built as much through social infrastructure as physical infrastructure. In preparing for the future, investing in people’s connections, culture, and shared responsibility is as important as any technical solution. Strong communities are not just part of the solution, they are the foundation of it. #resilience #sustainability #adaptation #socialsustainability #CenterforSustainableFuture Elie El Khoury Mario Sanchez Ibrahim Saleh Farah Assaad Valentin Lavaill Kearney Kearney Middle East and Africa