Self-interest vs climate commitment in China

Just published: China still hooked on coal despite record renewables. Construction and approvals for new coal-fired power plants in China surged in 2024, risking further lock-in of the dirty fuel and challenging the climate commitments of the world’s top greenhouse gas polluter, according to an analysis released on Feb 13. The report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) says in 2024, coal power construction activity in China surged to 94.5 gigawatts (GW), its highest level in a decade. The country also approved 66.7GW of new coal-fired power capacity, marking a resurgence in the second half of the year after a slowdown in the first half to 9GW, the report said. China is also adding record amounts of renewable energy capacity – a further 356GW of capacity in 2024 – about 4½ times the European Union’s additions in the same year. But there several dangers here: 1) Continued coal power expansion risks undermining China's green investments. Instead of replacing coal, clean energy in the country is being layered on top of an existing fossil-fuel-heavy system, with coal generating about 60 per cent of China’s electricity. This makes it increasingly difficult to achieve the intended shift towards a power sector driven by renewables, the authors said. 2) The surge in coal power capacity challenges President Xi Jinping’s 2021 pledge to strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the current 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025) and phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030). He has also said China’s carbon emissions would peak before 2030 and it would reach carbon neutrality before 2060. 3) What China decides on coal matters to the rest of the globe. It is the world’s top coal consumer and producer and has by far the world’s largest fleet of coal power plants that belch out vast amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide (CO2). In 2023, its total CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation hit 5.56 billion tonnes – more than the carbon emissions from the United States that year. The worry is while coal use and CO2 emissions might peak soon in China, the plateau could remain largely flat for some years -- that means still very high CO2 emissions. Still, record renewables investments are having a positive impact. But what China decides on coal in the coming years is absolutely crucial for the pace of climate change globally. More here in my story for The Straits Times: https://lnkd.in/gjq4RETd Thanks to Qi Qin and Belinda Schäpe 林孝蓓 at CREA and Jorrit Gosens at the The Australian National University. #China #Coal #CO2 #climatechange #fossilfuels #electricity #RenewableEnergy #wind #solar #EVs #sustainability #scicomms

About China's Clean Energy 'Morality': There's an emerging consensus in Western media of an 'acceptable' way to talk about China's cleantech efforts: that it's less driven by altruistic intentions re: climate change, and more driven by economic self-interest (domestically and internationally) and perhaps domestic pollution control. You can find many examples of this narrative these days. Mea culpa: I admit to contributing to this narrative in the past to make it more palatable for e.g. financial media interviews. I wanted to emphasize good outcomes, and so I embraced a convenient narrative that helped me get there. It's been an easy one for China-skeptical editors and readers to accept: that China's 'good behavior' on climate issues is mostly driven by self-interest that happens to be socially beneficial. Of course, there's a lot of truth to this (there has to be, or I wouldn't have used it). However, this framing has two problems, the second of which I am only now starting to appreciate: 1. It's really only half-true. Which uncharitably means it's also half-false. Chinese policymakers DO care about combatting climate change. If they didn't, there would be no 2025 peak coal target or 2030 peak emissions goal, for example. China isn't yet willing to make big sacrifices in the pursuit of energy abundance for its citizens to make more rapid gains on emissions. But if it didn't care at all, it wouldn't have to do any of that. It wants to have its cake and eat it too - which is different from not caring. 2. It forgets how audiences' assessments of climate efforts are influenced by moral judgments, where actions are valued more if they are seen as selfless or sacrificial. I should have foreseen this - it's a well-established psychological dynamic (the perception of egoistic motivations reduces the judged virtue of the actions, even if outcomes are very positive). My contribution to promoting this self-interest narrative probably fueled cynicism, making it harder to give credit where credit is due without adding qualifiers and caveats. Now, I'm giving up that narrative, and will start pushing against it when I see it in the future. To be honest, pretty much all nations prioritize self-interest in climate policy; after all, altruism and self-abnegation are rare in geopolitics. However, this narrative just opens up opportunities to downplay how China's state-backed cleantech investments are accelerating and underwriting global decarbonization efforts. This is really unhelpful for cleantech cooperation, particularly when the mantle of global clean energy leadership has been fully abandoned elsewhere... A more sophisticated narrative should frame China's cleantech efforts as a hybrid of pragmatic self-interest and climate commitment, and always emphasizing outcomes and opportunities over inferred motives. IMO, that's what will encourage more collaboration, rather than endless moral posturing that hinders progress. What do you think? 🤔

When the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Agreement, China didn’t hesitate. It kept building. And now, it’s leading the world in solar, batteries, and EVs—not just for its own transition, but for the future of global energy. Last year, China installed as much solar capacity as the entire world did the year before. Its dominance in renewable manufacturing has made clean energy cheaper and more accessible, fast-tracking the global shift away from fossil fuels. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road (which is not without significant faults), China has also expanded its green infrastructure investments, particularly in the Global South—helping other countries transition while creating massive trade opportunities. But this leadership comes with contradictions. China is still the world’s largest emitter, and while it’s scaling renewables at record speed, it’s also building new coal plants to meet energy demand. The question isn’t whether China is leading—it is. The question is how it will lead moving forward. Will it fully embrace its role as a clean energy superpower and accelerate the global transition? In November, COP 30 in Brazil is the next big test. If China steps up with bold commitments—phasing out coal, increasing clean energy investments abroad, and strengthening international climate cooperation—it could set the standard for what real climate leadership looks like. The world is watching. The moment is there. Now it’s a question of how far China is willing to go.