How to Execute First-of-a-Kind Climate Projects

We don’t have a cleantech innovation problem — we have a FOAK execution problem. Over the past year, I’ve been building something I wish I had when I started scaling my first climate tech venture: a practical, experience-based framework for getting First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) projects off the ground. In my latest article, I’ve pulled together my 50+ posts into a structured overview that maps the FOAK journey—from the moment you decide to leave the lab to the day your NOAKs are rolling out. Inside, you’ll find detailed breakdowns on: * 🧭 When you’re ready to scale (and when you’re not) * 💰 Raising capital from VCs and strategics (without losing control) * 📄 Securing off-takes (step-by-step from MOU to pricing) * 🏗️ Building pilot → demo → FOAK (with real-world lessons) * 👥 Hiring and managing teams that can survive the chaos * 🧱 Building supply chains that won’t collapse under pressure * ⚠️ FOAK failures and success stories from batteries, wind, EVs, and more 📚 Whether you're an early-stage founder, FOAK operator, or investor looking for clarity on what this journey actually looks like, you’ll find it here. ✍️This FOAK Framework is still a work-in-progress, so I’d highly appreciate your thoughts on what you’d like to see covered here! I’ll be working on updating the Framework throughout the summer and issuing an updated version in autumn. Follow me here and subscribe to my website for regular updates! Let’s FOAK better! P.S. In writing these posts, I've relied extensively not only on my own experience, but also on those of: David Yeh Julian Ryba-White Kendra Rauschenberger Yoann Berno Yair Reem Nadav Steinmetz Jon Fuller Freya Pratty Nik Baumann Ewout Lubberman Jonathan Stokely Olivier Mussat Polina Vasilenko Vlad Batkhin Duke Oh Dr. Alexandros Papaderos Dr. Venera N. Anderson (PhD, MBA, MSc) Tatiana Mitrova Michael Sura Christoph SIARA Mario Fernandez Anton Moskvin Arkady KARNEEV Jean Gravellier

👉 Clean industrial hubs bring together project developers, policymakers, financial institutions, and community-based organizations to advance regional clusters of clean energy and industrial decarbonization projects.  ✋ Mission Possible Partnership and RMI released the report, "Unlocking First-of-a-Kind Projects through Clean Industrial Hubs. 👉This report shares insights from the development of these clean industrial hubs and demonstrates how participating in a hub enhances outcomes for projects, the climate, and communities. 👉 It details how creating an enabling ecosystem of private finance, public policy, and community engagement is essential to de-risk projects and help innovative first movers. 👉It also documents steps to take to successfully develop a clean industrial hub 👉To scale projects to new geographies around the world, the second half of this report includes lessons learned and case studies from FOAK and NOAK projects in six key sectors: low-emissions hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, electrolytic methanol and electrolytic ammonia, concrete and cement, lowemissions steel, and zero-emissions trucking. 👉The goal of this report is to catalyze stakeholders in other geographies to take the lessons shared in this report and advance clean industrial hubs — and the (first-of-a-kind) FOAK and (next-of-a-kind) NOAK projects at their core — in new geographies. ✋ Full report attached

Taking a First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) project from pilot to commercial scale is tough—but Airbuild Inc is leading the way with their innovative technology. 💡 Their Roadmap: 1️⃣ Pilot: Validated core functions at UMass; upcoming biopanel pilot at Sweet Farm, NY. 2️⃣ Demonstration: Scaling biopod to a 3-acre site in Green River, Utah, capturing 550 tons of CO2/year and purifying 600,000 gallons of water. 3️⃣ Commercial Facility: A 37-acre bioremediation biopod deployment proving commercial scalability. 💵 Funding FOAK Projects: Airbuild blends grants, equity, and green bonds to de-risk and scale while minimizing dilution. Strategic partnerships, specifically the 37 acres with Green River, have carved a pathway for scale-up. 🎯 Takeaways for Entrepreneurs: - Validate early to build credibility. - Use diverse capital strategies to spread risk. - Partner locally to align goals. Airbuild’s journey proves bold, scalable solutions are possible with the right strategy and vision. https://lnkd.in/gE7es6jG

CAPEX estimation for low maturity technology projects is challenging, particularly when we talk about new equipment. Yet, we still need to be able to get fairly accurate figures to justify the viability of the technology and secure funding for its development. How to do it? Here is what we usually do for hydrogen and carbon capture projects. 1. Define the Project Scope Start by clearly outlining all project boundary, objectives and deliverables. Identify every cost elements required for full scale implementation, from engineering and design to construction and commissioning, while distinguishing between one-off investments and those that can be standardised. 2. Develop the first-of-a-kind CAPEX Estimate • Detailed Bottom-Up Analysis: Break down the project into its individual components, accounting for bespoke engineering, pilot testing, specialized installations, and comprehensive project management. • Risk and Contingency: Due to the innovative nature and inherent uncertainties of FOAK projects, incorporate generous contingencies to cover design modifications, unforeseen challenges, and regulatory uncertainties. • Documentation: Maintain thorough records of assumptions and decisions made during this phase, as these will inform future projects. 3. Estimate to the nth-of-a-kind estimate with learning curves Leverage the insights from the FOAK phase to isolate repeatable cost elements. With each subsequent build, learning curves drive efficiencies: • Standardize Processes: As you replicate the project, streamline designs and processes. • Realize Efficiency Gains: Experience leads to better vendor relationships and operational refinements, translating into significant cost reductions for repeatable components. • Adjust Estimates: Update your cost models to reflect these improvements, using your own or reported learning curves, ensuring more accurate and lower capital expenditure projections for future projects. 4. Implement Continuous Improvement Regularly revisit and refine both FOAK and NOAK estimates. As more operational data becomes available, adjust your assumptions and conduct sensitivity analyses to maintain a robust, realistic capex projection. How do you estimate CAPEX for your technology? #Innovation #research #hydrogen #carboncapture #science #scientist #chemicalengineering

Working in climate tech? What's FOAK and why you need to know about it: Solving the climate crisis requires reengineering how we produce and consume everything. Ultimately, this means moving atoms and molecules: i.e. hardware-based solutions. Tech startups instinctively go the VC route to achieve speed and growth but traditional VC models, while effective for software startups, often fall short when it comes to the substantial Capex required for many #climatetech innovations. Let's say a startup comes up with a new way for producing fertilizer; it's shown in the lab and it builds a small pilot facility that demonstrates the technology works well. So far, VC funding in the low millions should work fine. Now it's time to build a first commercial size facility to show that it can work at scale, say at Series A, and all of a sudden you need tens of millions (if not hundreds) to build that commercial facility. #VC economics break. There's little revenue to speak of, capital requirements are too large and you're nowhere near a valuation that makes any sense. It’s an inflection point for startups, which to navigate successfully we need to think beyond the traditional VC model in tech. This is where First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) funding comes in - capital for the first large scale plant that shows the technology and product can meet commercial needs. FOAK requires financial engineering right off the bat, which traditional venture capital is not accustomed to, or usually equipped for. In the last 25 years, VCs have overwhelmingly focused on “software eating the world”. The net-zero transition, the biggest economic opportunity of our time, needs a fresh approach. Following early stage funding at pre(seed) stages, FOAK may be a better approach for many companies, where projects are financed through equity funding separate from the startup’s equity. Eventually startups will want to access more traditional #projectfinance through PE and #infrastructure finance to build new plants and production facilities but these funds typically come in at much lower levels of risk. In between FOAK and project finance, another gap exists where early project finance is needed. In the example of the fertilizer startup, a FOAK fund would provide capital for the first commercial scale plant and once it’s proven and risk is lower, early project finance provides capital for the next handful of plants. Add to the mix things like venture debt and advance purchase agreements and we start getting a more complete picture of the funding required to commercialize and scale climate tech innovation. We need to be able to weave a continuous thread between VCs, PE and infrastructure investors, corporates, banks, and public funding. This was a hard lesson learned by the first wave of renewables startups in the 2000s and one that’s starting to emerge as a challenge for today’s climate tech sector. What do you think? Would love to hear your thoughts.

𝗧𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 from 25 years of cleantech FOAK-development #FirstOfAKind projects, the first full-scale plants, never built before and relying on unproven technologies, are essential to #Decarbonization but notoriously hard to #projectfinance. Whether it is a #GreenHydrogen hub in Europe, a #SAF refinery in the United States, or a #CarbonCaptureStorage cluster in Asia, the pattern repeats. These facilities anchor national #greentransition strategies, create new #sustainable industrial value chains, and set the benchmarks that later plants scale against. Yet, time and again, they are the ventures most prone to stalling before financial close. After 25+ years of globally developing industrial-scale #cleantech technologies and projects, one conclusion is unavoidable - no matter if in Helsinki, Delhi, or São Paulo: technology may enable production, but it does not unlock capital on its own. Plants can operate, yet investors and lenders will not commit until uncertainty has been transformed into contractual, insurable, and verifiable obligations. #Bankability rests less on engineering prowess than on governance, sequencing, and risk allocation. These ten insights are the hard lessons that determine whether a FOAK project advances to become a reference plant, or remains a stranded idea. Explore the carousel to see all ten. Which resonates most with your own experience? #CleanEnergyTransition #EnergyTransition #SustainableFinance #ClimateLeadership #RenewableEnergy #efuels #Sustainability #ESG #biofuels