Climate mitigation and adaptation failures

Adaptation & resilience are now central to climate finance discourse. On one hand, this is long overdue. On the other, this rising emphasis reflects a deeper failure: we have—and continue to—woefully underfund mitigation, with the disastrous consequences long predicted. It would be one thing if we were waking up to the need for adaptation while also doubling down on mitigation—the only means to fundamentally reduce risk. But we’re not. Attention is tilting toward adaptation/resilience without a coherent plan to fully decarbonize our global economy. That is a losing strategy. Adaptation is essential—and underfunded—but it has hard & imminent limits: - Insurers warn that climate volatility could collapse private insurance markets; public reinsurance will also become unsustainable. - Extreme heat will cross lethal thresholds, even in shade with water. - Coastal infrastructure cannot be endlessly elevated or protected. - Crop yields will decline; climate-resilient varieties have limits. - Tipping points—coral reef collapse, permafrost thaw, rainforest loss—are irreversible and non-adaptable. - Climate-smart technologies will be overwhelmed by compounding extremes. Financing adaptation & resilience is absolutely essential. But doing so while allowing emissions to rise fundamentally misses the point. And that’s where we are: - Emissions are rising when they must drop steeply & swiftly. - Clean energy investment is less than half of what’s needed annually. - Fossil fuel demand must fall, yet FF subsidies exceed global public climate finance. - Sea surface temperatures hit records in May 2025, and the ocean’s carbon sink is weakening, removing one of our last natural buffers. These trends will make adaptation more expensive, less effective, and eventually impossible. We must also be clear-eyed about market-driven adaptation. Capital will (appropriately) flow to protect asset value and to investments that generate returns - both are legitimate and important. But critical adaptation needs—like restoring tropical forests & protecting the most vulnerable—require robust public finance and will not be delivered by the market alone. None of this is new: - The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Net Zero by 2050 report laid out a decarbonization roadmap we are failing to follow. - The Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance quantified specific financing needs that were ignored in COP finance negotiations. - The IPCC warned that beyond 1.5/2°C, adaptation becomes increasingly ineffective or impossible. - Experts have LONG shown that with rising emissions, damages grow exponentially while adaptation benefits plateau—and that adaptation is already failing in sectors like agriculture and coastal defense. Let’s advance a coherent conversation on financing BOTH full decarbonization and adaptation, based on a rigorous understanding of how systemic decarbonization is achieved, and on the public/private financing needs for adaptation and resilience.

🌍 Poor planning is threatening climate resiliency worldwide. Fewer than 1-in-6 nations have sufficient alignment between their adaptation plans and their decarbonization goals. Here's why that's a big problem... In the fight against climate change, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the bridges between local resilience efforts and global goals. 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞𝐬: 1️⃣ Diminished Impact: When strategies (NAPs) and climate goals (NDCs) connect, nations get better outcomes. Without alignment? Gaps, inefficiencies, and weaker results. 2️⃣ Duplication: Misaligned plans waste time and resources. Avoid fragmented efforts. 3️⃣ Funding Blockers: Financial actors need clear, credible plans to allocate capital. Vague or contradictory plans stall capital flows. 4️⃣ Lack of System-Wide Change: Climate change doesn’t respect borders or silos. Poorly integrated plans = less resilient communities. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤 According to the UN Environment Programme Adaptation Gap Report 16% of countries fully align their NAPs and NDCs. 68% show partial alignment. 16% don’t align at all. Misalignment risks slowing progress on our Paris Agreement goals. We can’t afford that. What Can Be Done? 1️⃣ Use NAPs as the foundation for NDCs. 2️⃣ Synchronize timelines for plan updates. 3️⃣ Foster collaboration between NAP and NDC teams. 4️⃣ Leverage aligned plans to secure climate finance. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐧𝐨𝐰? The stakes are high—food insecurity, livelihoods, and economic instability are all on the line. With the next NDC updates due in 2025, there’s an opportunity to close the gap and build resilience worldwide. Aligned strategies don’t just meet targets—they save lives. 🌏💡 Let’s act today for a better tomorrow. What strategies do you think could help close this gap? Share your thoughts below! 👇 #ClimateAction #Adaptation #Resilience #ParisAgreement #SustainabilityGoals

Have governments worldwide utilized fiscal spending during the #covid19pandemic recovery period to address #climatechange #adaptation and #resilience (A&R)? The answer comes from a new study that presents a comprehensive analysis covering approximately 8,000 government policies across 88 countries. The detailed look shows that, despite the rhetoric of #buildbackbetter, measures for long-term adaptation and resilience to climate and other environmental shocks have not sufficiently prioritized. These are the key messages: 1️⃣ Out of the total economic recovery spending, US$279–334 billion (representing 9.7–11.1% of the total spending) potentially offered direct benefits for climate adaptation and resilience. 2️⃣ A significant portion (27.6–28%) of the recovery spending may have had adverse effects on climate adaptation and resilience, thereby not aligning with #buildbackbetter. 3️⃣ Compared to climate mitigation efforts, climate adaptation and resilience received only one-third of the spending and was mentioned seven times less frequently in policy documents. This analysis is a valuable contribution to the ongoing discussion about how to align economic recovery efforts with environmental sustainability goals. To this end, the World Meteorological Organization is offering tools and climate intelligence for policymakers to consider future responses to global challenges. Through the provision of essential climate services, support for adaptation and resilience efforts #earlywarningsforall , promotion of research and innovation, and facilitation of international collaboration, WMO is crucial in helping nations and communities to become more resilient to the impacts of climate change and better prepared for future environmental shocks. https://lnkd.in/eY8scXD2