Climate change from hypothesis to reality

🌍 The latest findings from the World Meteorological Organization and global climate science partners demand far greater urgency than we are showing today. 📊 Carbon dioxide (#CO₂) in the atmosphere reached a record 423.9 ppm in 2024, the highest level ever measured and the largest annual increase since modern observations began in 1957, with concentrations rising by 3.5 ppm in just one year. Even more concerning, as #WMO notes, growth rates have tripled since the 1960s, from 0.8 ppm/year then to 2.4 ppm/year in the 2010s. The likely drivers? 🌲 Massive wildfires and reduced absorption by land ecosystems 🌊 Oceans losing capacity to absorb CO₂ as they warm 🔥 Feedback loops that turn nature from a carbon sink into a carbon source “The heat trapped by CO₂ and other greenhouse gases is turbo-charging our climate and leading to more extreme weather. Reducing emissions is therefore essential not just for our climate but also for our economic security and community well-being.” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General This vicious cycle is already reshaping our world: 🌡️ The global average temperature is now 1.3 °C above pre-industrial levels, up from 1 °C in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was signed. 🔥 More than 100 countries now experience at least 10 more “hot days” each year than a decade ago and in 10 countries, that number exceeds 30 additional hot days annually. ☀️ A European-style heatwave like the one in 2023 is now 70% more likely due to just 0.6 °C of additional warming. 🌲 Wildfires in Los Angeles are now 2–3 times more likely and burn 25 times more land. The #ParisAgreement has indeed shifted the trajectory, reducing worst-case scenarios from 4 °C by 2100 to around 2.6 °C if pledges are delivered. But even that path would still mean dozens more dangerously hot days every year. 🌱 We must protect and restore the natural carbon sinks that are weakening under climate stress and we must expand global greenhouse gas monitoring because understanding how carbon is moving through Earth’s systems is essential to managing the crisis. https://lnkd.in/d8HTHAem

A new study, supported by the European Union’s Horizon research and innovation programme, shows that the climate impacts we often associate with the distant future — from water stress to crop failures and heat extremes — are already emerging across multiple sectors. By applying the concept of Time of Emergence (TOE), the study identifies when climate-related changes become statistically distinct from historical variability. The results are striking: In many regions, TOE occurred before 2020 for several key indicators. 👉Tropical areas face the greatest burden of early and compounding stressors, 👉including rising heat extremes and declining crop yields. 👉In contrast, northern latitudes may experience beneficial changes, such as increased agricultural productivity — highlighting a deepening inequality in climate impacts. These cumulative shifts, both positive and negative, are projected to peak before 2050. For anyone working in foresight, policy, resilience, or sustainability, this is a crucial reminder: The future is already underway — and its effects are not evenly distributed. #Foresight #StrategicPlanning #ClimateJustice #FutureStudies

National Academies Confirms: The Science on Climate Harm is Beyond Dispute A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine delivers an unmistakable message: The evidence that human-caused greenhouse gases are harming human health and welfare is beyond scientific dispute. Key findings: • Human activities are driving rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. • Observations confirm—without question—that these emissions are warming Earth’s surface and altering the climate. • Climate change is already harming the health and welfare of people in the United States. • Every additional ton of greenhouse gases emitted increases the severity of future harm. The report underscores that EPA’s 2009 Endangerment Finding—the legal cornerstone of U.S. climate policy—was accurate then and is even more strongly supported by today’s science. Yet, EPA has signaled its intent to rescind it. This is not just a debate about policy—it’s a debate about whether we accept facts and science or ignore them. The nation’s top scientific body has made the truth clear: climate change is real, human-caused, and dangerous.

Milestone: 20,000 assets are now tracked on Beehive Climate. Employees in flood zones. Data centers facing extreme heat. Offices in wildfire paths. Suppliers underwater. Retail locations in hurricane alleys. 20,000 reasons companies finally understand that climate risk isn't theoretical. Here's what those 20,000 data points taught our customers: A retailer discovered 28% of stores sit in high heat wave areas. That could cost millions in increased pay to comply with OSHA regs. A tech company found 400+ employees live in areas that will see high hurricane risk by 2035. Their "return to office" strategy just got complicated. A tech company found 3/5 data centers in high risk areas. One intense storm could cause a failure worth millions. A VP of Sustainability at a global healthcare company told me last week: "We spent years counting carbon. Meanwhile, the Hawaii fires knocked out our market leadership position there, and the LA fires forced us to leave California entirely." That's the shift. From exclusively measuring your impact on climate (still long-term important) to also measuring climate's impact on you (short-term important). 20,000 assets. Each one represents real people, real operations, real revenue at risk. And we're just getting started.

The next climate extremes are both predictable and unprecedented, and they’re coming on fast, writes Zoë Schlanger. From a climate perspective, 2024 is beginning in uncharted territory. Temperatures last year broke records not by small intervals but by big leaps; 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, and each month in the second half of the year was the hottest—the hottest June, the hottest July, all the way through to December. July was in fact the hottest month in recorded history. Already, experts predict that 2024 is likely to be even hotter. But these heat records, although important milestones, won’t hold their title for long. “Getting too excited about any given year is a bit of a fool’s game, because we’re on an escalator that’s going up,” Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at the Columbia Climate School, told me. “We’re going to be doing this every year.” Instead, the way to think about climate change now is through two interlinked concepts. The first is nonlinearity, the idea that change will happen by factors of multiplication, rather than addition. The second is the idea of “gray swan” events, which are both predictable and unprecedented. Together, these two ideas explain how we will face a rush of extremes, all scientifically imaginable but utterly new to human experience. Our climate world is now one of nonlinear relationships—which means we are now living in a time of accelerating change. Tiffany Shaw, a climate physicist at the University of Chicago, has studied how upper-level jet-stream winds will accelerate under climate change; each degree Celsius of warming will increase the speed of these winds by 2 percent, likely leading to a set of unpleasant impacts, including more turbulence on flights and more accelerated storm systems. Plus, the fastest winds will speed up more than 2.5 times faster than the average wind will. Slow winds won’t change nearly as much. In other words, the fastest winds will get faster, fastest. https://lnkd.in/eGHEc9GF

Can A Few Molecules Really Change Our Planet's Future? ➤ Imagine a grid of 100 by 100. That's 10,000 dots. Now, picture that out of these 10,000 dots, only three represent carbon molecules. This was the state of our atmosphere 150 years ago. Today, just over four of those dots are carbon. While this might seem like a minuscule increase, it's having a profound impact on our planet. ➤ This is the essence of the greenhouse effect. The small number of carbon molecules in the air traps heat that would otherwise escape into space, creating a warming blanket around the Earth. It's hard to fathom how such a small increase—from three to just over four dots—can lead to significant climate change. But this is our reality. ➤ Think of it like this: on a football field, the difference between being at the 99.8-yard line and the 99.9-yard line might seem negligible, but in terms of carbon concentration, it's a game-changer. When we reach five dots, the world as we know it could be altered forever. Why does this matter? 📌 Climate Sensitivity: The Earth's climate is extremely sensitive to these small changes in carbon concentration. 📌 Visualizing Impact: Understanding the seemingly tiny but powerful changes in our atmosphere can help us grasp the urgency of addressing climate change. 📌 Actionable Insight: Recognizing the power of small changes empowers us to take meaningful actions, both individually and collectively. → The greenhouse effect might be driven by a tiny fraction of molecules, but its impact is enormous. By visualizing and understanding this, we can better appreciate the critical need for reducing carbon emissions. 💬 How can we collectively reduce our carbon footprint to combat climate change? #ClimateChange #Sustainability #GreenhouseEffect #CarbonFootprint #FutureOfOurPlanet

🌡️ The world is on a knife’s edge. 2.7°F (1.5°C) isn’t just a climate target—it’s a threshold between serious disruption and outright crisis. The difference between 2.7°F and 3.6°F of warming might not sound like much, but the impacts are exponential: 🐠 70% vs. 99% of coral reefs gone – a near-total collapse of marine ecosystems. 🦋 Pollinators face twice the risk of habitat loss—putting global food production at risk. ❄️ The Arctic could be ice-free every decade instead of once a century—accelerating global warming. 🌊 Sea levels could rise an extra 3 feet—threatening coastal cities and infrastructure. 🏝️ Up to 16 million people could be displaced—turning climate migration into a humanitarian crisis. These aren’t hypothetical scenarios—they’re already unfolding. The good news? We still have time to act. One of the fastest, most cost-effective ways to cut emissions today is efficiency. The cleanest energy is the energy we don’t waste. Every fraction of a degree matters. The time for action is now. Data source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (https://www.ipcc.ch/)

By the early 2000s, the climate debate shifted. The question was no longer “Is this real?” It was “How do we live with it?” In the fifth installment of my Substack series, A Brief History of Climate Change, I explore how the turn of the millennium marked a new phase in climate science and policy. * In 2000, Peter Stott and colleagues published a landmark study showing the human fingerprint on warming was a statistical near-certainty. * The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (2001) zoomed in from global trends to regional impacts - glaciers retreating, coral reefs bleaching, crop yields shifting. * And for the first time, the policy conversation expanded beyond mitigation to include adaptation: building seawalls, rethinking water systems, redesigning agriculture. By 2007, the IPCC declared warming “unequivocal.” The science was confident, detailed, and urgent. Yet many policymakers were still debating whether climate change was even real. #climate #climatehistory #climatechange

It’s official: 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, so hot that Earth passed a significant threshold — 1.5⁰C. Scientists warn we should try to limit warming to 1.5⁰ to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Here’s why every degree of warming matters: 🟢 Some places feel it more than others — for example, in polar regions, where ice can melt faster. 🟢 Temperature rise can lead to irreversible changes in our ecosystems by disrupting animal habitats and species. 🟢 As conditions get hotter and drier, wildfires like the ones in Los Angeles are becoming more common and more devastating. The good news is that a future above 1.5⁰C is not inevitable. 🟢 In 2023, clean energy jobs in the United States grew by 4.2%, over twice the overall job growth rate. 🟢 A 2024 study from London Stock Exchange Group showed the green economy is growing significantly faster than the broader market and is now the 4th largest sector in the world. 🟢 The renewable energy sector is growing rapidly, especially in China, and is expected to surpass coal in 2025. If we continue to adopt green technologies and innovations, we can limit global warming even as we help people access opportunity. That’s what The Rockefeller Foundation is focused on — and we hope you’ll join us. https://lnkd.in/dM4AWAtx

Years ago, on a college chorus tour through the Alps, I convinced my fellow students that Swiss farmers had bred sheep with longer legs on one side so they could navigate steep hillsides without tipping over. It was a silly story, but in that picturesque, well-organized European setting, they believed it. That moment has stuck with me—not because I often fool people, but because it was a rare instance where I did. I thought about that story again recently, reading about how Alpine farmers are dealing with rapid climate change. The New York Times reported that Swiss glaciers have lost 10 percent of their water volume in just two years—a loss that previously took three decades. The sheep I joked about now walk on paths carved into hillsides because the glaciers they used to cross are gone. This isn’t a tall tale. This is real, and it’s happening fast. Greenland’s ice sheet is also disappearing faster than we thought, with the Earth losing over a trillion tons of ice each year. The implications for sea level rise are massive, and we have about twenty years to adapt before 10,000 coastal cities face chronic flooding. This period—let’s call it the Great Transition—requires serious planning. Young people are well aware of the challenges ahead, but they often can’t grasp how short twenty years really is. For those of us who have lived through a few more decades, the urgency is clear. The Great Transition isn’t a hypothetical. It’s happening now. And unlike the sheep story, this isn’t something we can afford to laugh off. #climatechange #sealevelrise