Criteria for Real Startup Validation

Many startups fail because they run out of hypotheses—long before they run out of money. Every stage of a startup’s growth is an experiment. Each with a few critical assumptions that must be tested and proven true or false before moving forward. Skip the validation, and you risk building something no one wants, selling in a way that doesn’t scale, or running headfirst into a broken business model. The best founders don’t just build—they test. Here’s how it plays out: Phase 1: Problem Validation Hypothesis: "This [insert your problem] is painful enough that people will pay for a solution." Run interviews, test pricing before you build, pre-sell if you can. If you can’t find at least 10 people desperate for a solution, your idea is dead on arrival. Phase 2: Product Validation Hypothesis: "Our solution actually solves the problem." Build a scrappy MVP, launch fast, collect usage data. Customers should be pulling the product from you. If they aren’t, something’s off. Phase 3: Distribution Validation Hypothesis: "We can repeatedly acquire customers at a sustainable cost." Test sales, outbound, PLG, paid channels—whatever fits your model. If CAC is unsustainable or customers aren’t sticking, you don’t have a business yet. Phase 4: Scale Validation Hypothesis: "We can scale without breaking the business." Does our pricing support profitability? Do our operations and processes hold up with growth? Can we still hire great people at scale? If any of these assumptions prove wrong at any stage, it’s time to pause, reassess, and adjust—don’t blindly push forward. Before you charge ahead, ask yourself: 1️⃣ What are the one to three key hypotheses we need to validate at our current stage? 2️⃣ What’s the smallest test we can run to prove or disprove them? 3️⃣ Are we actually ready to move to the next stage, or are we skipping steps? Building a startup isn’t about moving fast for the sake of moving fast. It’s about reducing risk as efficiently as possible. The best founders and leaders don’t guess. They test. They remember to be the scientist 🧪, not the judge ⚖️. Curious—what stage are you in, and what’s the biggest hypothesis you’re testing right now?

The most dangerous words in B2B AI aren't "it failed." They're "that sounds interesting." After hundreds of founders, I've watched the same pattern unfold with alarming regularity: technical founders build sophisticated solutions based on nods and compliments rather than commitments. They confuse politeness for validation and enthusiasm for traction. The hard truth? Most people are conditioned to be encouraging. Few are conditioned to be brutally honest about what they'll actually pay for. I've seen AI companies spend 18 months building complex systems after hearing: → "This could be useful for us" → "I can see the potential" → "Let me share this with the team" → "We should explore this further" None of these statements represent validation. They represent conversational courtesy. The gap between "sounds interesting" and "I'll buy it" is where most startups die. This gap is particularly treacherous in B2B AI, where: → Technical demos often receive genuine intellectual admiration → Prospects can be sincerely fascinated without having budget allocation → The distance between "cool technology" and "critical business need" is vast → Decision-makers happily take meetings about AI innovation but sign checks for proven ROI Real validation isn't measured in compliments, email responses, or meeting attendance. It's measured in: → Procurement paperwork initiated → Budget discussions with specific numbers → Introduction to actual decision-makers (not just curious team members) → Willingness to engage in paid pilots → Concrete objections that reveal serious consideration Your greatest risk isn't building something people hate; it's building something people merely find interesting. The remedy isn't seeking more validation—it's recognizing that polite enthusiasm isn't validation at all. Push for commitments, not compliments. Pursue objections, not affirmations. Chase contracts, not conversations. Entrepreneurship is fundamentally about solving problems people will pay to eliminate, not problems they'll praise you for addressing. #startups #founders #growth #ai

I recently read a newsletter write up on a startup that shut down in the last few months. They had a waiting list of over 10,000 people when they launched their product. Guess how many signed up? 50. Yes, just FIFTY. Not even 1% of the people who “expressed interest” in the product pre-launch actually gave them a single cent. I feel SO strongly about this, because I feel that venture investing has warped the minds of early-stage entrepreneurs so horribly that they don't even understand why they can't find PMF, when it's obvious. The one and only indication that your business is viable is your ability to gain and grow paying customers. That's it. And a mailing list is not an indication of that. Paying customers are. Please stop relying on vanity metrics as a means of validation. You'll know you have a good business and viable idea when someone will PRE-PAY you for access. If no one will do that, don't even waste your time building it. I recently tweeted this, but am also sharing here a list of things that do NOT matter when proving your business works: 1. Your mailing list 2. Your social media followers, on any and every possible social media platform 3. The number of (unconverted) visitors to your site 4. Your comments or "likes" online 5. [PAY SPECIAL ATTN TO THIS ONE] The amount of investment dollars you've gotten!! 6. Your non-paying "users" 7. The amount of press the company or founder gets 8. Survey results 9. The number of people attending events that you host 10. Your NPS score or how much people "like" your product [The only exception I can think of is that these metrics matter for people selling ads]

Perfect in secret = dead startup. Ugly in public = success. Early-stage founders often get stuck trying to perfect their product before anyone else sees it. The truth is, the best validation happens when you put a scrappy prototype in front of the actual people you want to serve. My first tests involved ordering a simple bed tent, a camera light, and a small speaker online, then assembling them into a makeshift setup. I took that rudimentary prototype to local schools and autism fairs, asking families and professionals: “If this were integrated, better built, and fully featured, would you buy it?” Hearing a resounding “yes” was the signal I needed to keep going. Another validation tactic is launching a bare-bones landing page with a straightforward call-to-action, sometimes even accepting pre-orders or small deposits. A deposit of just five or ten dollars may not sound like much, but it’s powerful proof that someone cares enough to pay. Free sign-ups can be misleading because people will sign up for almost anything at no cost. Even a small financial commitment shows genuine interest and willingness to support the concept. While big, polished marketing websites and perfect branding might feel important, they’re not what validates your market. Conversations with real users, minimal prototypes, and the simple act of someone putting down money speak volumes. For certain products, I’ve seen people successfully collect pre-orders to fund the initial build. In complex products, you can test interest through letters of intent, pilot agreements, or direct conversations. The key is to show people something tangible, no matter how rough, and ask for feedback or even payment. Once you have that solid signal, you can iterate, improve, and eventually invest in patents, branding, and all those refinements that only matter once you know there’s a market.

The secret to validating your first micro-startup is understanding a profound truth. You don't need a revolutionary idea. You just need a proven model you can execute well. Here's my exact framework for validating a new startup in 30 days: Before we dive in, remember Marcus Aurelius's wisdom: "The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way." Your first business doesn't need to be perfect. The obstacles you face will shape your path. Start with an online productized service. Why? • Low startup costs • Fast iteration cycles • Flexible scaling • No inventory needed • Minimal team required This is how I scaled my first agency to six figures. The Validation Matrix: Find the intersection of 3 elements: 1. Industries you're passionate about 2. Problems you can solve 3. Skills you can learn Inside that intersection lies your offer. Stoic lesson from Seneca: "If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable." Before building anything, get crystal clear on your target: • What market provides most value? • Is it growing? • Do they have purchasing power? • Are they easy to reach? Your messaging needs the 3S Formula: • Specific problem • Specific person • Specific solution Anything less leads to the "everything to everyone" trap. Which paradoxically serves no one well. On pricing, follow this wisdom from Epictetus: "Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants." Start by: • Studying competitor pricing • Delivering 10x the value • Starting at $3k minimum for 90 days • Increasing as metrics improve The validation metrics that matter: • >40% cash collected upfront • >80% payment collection rate • >20% close rate If you hit these numbers, raise prices by $1-3k and test again. Your ultimate goal: 70-80% profit margins This gives you room to: • Hire a team • Scale systems • Reinvest in growth • Create a real business Remember: most people overthink validation. You don't need: • Perfect systems • Fancy websites • Complex tech • Large audience You need: A clear offer that solves a real problem for people willing to pay. The stoic approach to startup validation: Control what you can: • Your effort • Your systems • Your knowledge • Your service quality Accept what you can't: • Market timing • Competition • External factors Key insight from my journey: The best validation isn't theory - it's getting paid. One paying client teaches you more than months of planning. Focus on getting that first "yes" and real feedback. Your action plan: 1. Choose your service 2. Define your target 3. Craft your offer 4. Set initial price 5. Start outreach 6. Get feedback 7. Iterate fast Success isn't built in big leaps, but in small, deliberate steps. Remember these words from Marcus Aurelius: "The best revenge is to be unlike him who performed the injury." Don't copy others exactly. Learn from them, then forge your own path.

We're building a "No Unicorn" venture studio After 15 years building and selling B2B software, I noticed something: The gap between "lifestyle business" and "unicorn startup" is massive, yet largely ignored. We're building a different kind of venture studio. One focused on creating $1-5M ARR B2B software companies. Not sexy enough for VC, too scalable for traditional bootstrapping, but great for the founders since we retain 100% equity. What makes this studio different: First, we're entirely self-funded. No limited partners, no fund economics, no pressure to force growth at the expense of unit economics. Just pure focus on building sustainable, profitable software businesses. Second, we're exclusively focused on B2B SaaS. Not marketplaces, not consumer apps, not Web3. Just solving painful problems for businesses willing to pay for solutions. Third, we won't build anything without committed customers. No product roadmap conversations, no feature discussions, no MVP builds until we have signed pilot commitments. Our validation framework is intentionally strict: 1. The problem must be PAMS-aligned. The problem needs to be painful enough that prospects write checks immediately, active in their daily or weekly work (not yearly or quarterly), have measurable impact on business metrics, and be shared across multiple stakeholders. 2. Market validation through cold outreach. We need to secure 3 paid pilot commitments without a product demo, just by describing the solution through cold email. If we can't, we move on. No exceptions. 3. Direct monetization only. We focus on subscription revenue from day one. No "we'll figure out monetization later," no marketplace fees, no data monetization, no ad-supported models. Why this matters: Most founders waste months or years building products nobody wants. Or worse, products people want but won't pay for. Our approach flips this: validate first, build second. Get paid commitments, not verbal interest. Focus on problems, not solutions. Build only what customers will pay for today. This isn't about building "small" companies. It's about building smart ones. Companies that generate cash from day one, grow through profit rather than funding, solve real problems for real businesses, and build lasting value for customers and founders.