National Security Implications of Mineral Resources

China’s restrictions on the export of antimony set to take effect Sept. 15 raise national security risks for the U.S. given Beijing’s dominance of the critical mineral’s mined production, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a recent analysis. Excerpts from my story for Aviation Week Network below: China accounts for 48% of antimony mined production globally–by far the largest share of any country–63% of U.S. imports and 32% of reserves. The U.S. has no domestic antimony production capability and just 3% of reserves. Antimony has been integral to the aerospace and defense sector since World War II. Two of its paramount applications are in the production of tungsten steel and hardening of lead bullets. It is also an important material in armor-piercing ammunition, night vision goggles, infrared sensors, and precision optics. One option for the U.S. is to restart domestic antimony production, which ended with the closure of Idaho’s Sunshine Mine in 2001. Idaho is also home to Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project, which S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates ranks fourth globally among the largest active mining properties that host antimony deposits. A government feasibility study estimates that the mine could supply about 35% of U.S. demand in the first six years of production. Given that domestic mining of antimony is at least several years away, CSIS reckons that the U.S. will have to look overseas to address current supply shortfalls. The No. 2 producer of the critical mineral is Tajikstan, which despite its small reserves accounted for 26% of global production in 2023. But because China dominates the entire production chain, the central Asian nation still exports most of its antimony to Beijing for refining. #aerospace #defense #minerals #mining #china #tajikstan #commodities #military #nationalsecurity #supplychain https://lnkd.in/ezBCr7YC

China has issued an ultimatum to the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Myanmar: cease operations near Bhamo—or risk losing rare earth exports mined from rebel-held territory. Nearly 50% of the world’s heavy rare earths—critical for EV motors, wind turbines, defense tech—are sourced here . 🌐 Regional and Global Economic Impact • Persistent disruption in Kachin has already halved Myanmar’s rare earth exports to China in early 2025, pushing up global prices • With China processing over 90% of heavy rare earths, any interruption triggers ripple effects—from EV production delays to scaled-back renewable energy deployment . 🏢 Corporate Risk Management Lessons • Concentration risk: Over-reliance on a single mine, rebel-held zone, and Chinese processing pipeline leaves global firms exposed. • Geopolitical supply chains: Firms must now map conflict zones as part of their risk models—covering extraction, transport, processing, and political authority in each link. • Hedging and diversification: This crisis underscores the importance of securing alternate suppliers—Australia, US, Canada—and investing in strategic reserves. 🇺🇸 Implications for U.S. Strategic Interests • Heavy rare earths are indispensable for defense systems—missile guidance, communications, radar. This supply chokehold undermines U.S. military readiness. • China’s use of rare earths as geopolitical leverage represents a new form of economic statecraft—backed by prior export restrictions during trade skirmishes • For U.S. policy: the moment demands expedited efforts to onshore refining capacity, expedite permitting for domestic mines, and energize allied supply chain partnerships. ✅ Key Takeaways for Leaders: 1. Diversify critical-material supply chains beyond a single high-risk region. 2. Integrate geopolitical scenarios into corporate risk frameworks—especially extraction zones in conflict regions. 3. Advocate for public–private initiatives to build supply resilience—namely, stockpiling, refining infrastructure, and allied procurement efforts. If China’s threat to halt purchases over rebel advances in Myanmar further highlights, supply chains are now strategic leverage. For corporate leaders and policymakers alike, the era of “just-in-time” for strategic minerals must give way to “just-in-case.” Griffin Gray Matter Resources (GMR) #economicwarfare #economist #rareearth #riskmanagement #nationalsecurity #grayzone #conflict #mynmar

China's Mineral Export Ban: What to Know On December 3, 2024, China imposed an export ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony to the U.S., coupled with stricter graphite reviews, following expanded U.S. restrictions on advanced chip sales. These minerals are critical for electric vehicles, electronics, and military equipment. With no domestic gallium, germanium, or antimony production, the U.S. faces a significant $3.4 billion economic impact, underscoring its vulnerability to China's mineral dominance. While germanium recycling offers a stopgap, long-term supply chain resilience will be a big challenge. My Take The $3.4 billion economic impact represents the projected decrease in the U.S. GDP due to China's export ban on gallium and germanium. The U.S. Geological Survey developed the estimate using a model assessing the effects of critical mineral supply disruptions on the U.S. economy.  Disruptions to gallium, germanium, and antimony threaten U.S. national security by undermining advanced military technologies, including radar systems, thermal imaging, secure communications, and satellite infrastructure, critical for defense and intelligence operations. This latest escalation highlights the urgency of the U.S. accelerating domestic mining, recycling technologies, and partnerships with allied nations to secure critical minerals. Building supply chain resilience will support our economy and national security. #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChainResilience #Geopolitics #China #RareMetals #USManufacturing #TechIndustry #EVs #NationalSecurity #MineralShortages Link to article: https://lnkd.in/einmNRMq Credit: Visual Capitalist Get Ahead with the Latest Tech Insights!  Explore my searchable blog: https://lnkd.in/eWESid86