Microsoft's breakthrough in weather modeling

Extreme weather events are a growing challenge for communities and businesses. But now, we have a new tool to help us stay ahead of the storm. Microsoft researchers have developed #AuroraAI, a groundbreaking AI foundation model that forecasts not just weather, but a whole spectrum of environmental events – from hurricanes to air quality – with unprecedented accuracy.    Why is Aurora special? Here are a few highlights:  ✅ Smarter forecasts: Aurora outperforms traditional models on 91% of key forecasting targets, learning from over a million hours of weather data. It can predict a typhoon’s path days in advance more accurately – in one case, correctly forecasting a Typhoon’s landfall 4 days early when others missed it. ✅ Faster insights: It generates forecasts in seconds instead of hours, making it ~5000× faster than conventional systems. Speed saves lives and helps businesses make quick decisions. ✅ Beyond weather: Not just rain and storms – Aurora can predict air pollution and ocean waves too, beating the best models in those areas as well (it even improved forecasts of 5-day cyclone tracks beyond what any major center achieved).    Innovations like Aurora will help organizations and communities, as more precise and faster forecasts result in better decisions. Imagine farmers getting early warnings of a drought, or cities planning disaster response with AI guidance. Businesses can protect supply chains and build resilience against climate impacts. It’s a great example of technology empowering us to solve real-world challenges.    I’m especially proud that we’ve made Aurora source code and model weights publicly available – allowing researchers, startups, and institutions around the world to build on it. It’s currently powering more accurate forecasts on MSN Weather for everyone, and this is just the beginning. When I think about AI’s potential, one phrase comes to mind: “the defining technology of our time” – and innovations like Aurora prove it. 🚀    How do you see AI changing the way we forecast and plan?  Feel free to share your thoughts or learn more about Aurora AI (link in comments). Together, let’s harness these breakthroughs responsibly to create a more sustainable and secure future.    #AI #Innovation #ClimateTech #MicrosoftResearch #Sustainability 

Aurora: Open-weight foundation model for the earth system. Trained on 1 million hours of geophysical data, to support forecasting to prepare for natural disasters. “The potential implications of Aurora for the field of Earth system prediction are profound. Although in this paper we showcase the application of Aurora to four domains, it could be fine-tuned for any desired Earth system prediction task, potentially producing fore- casts that outperform the current operational systems at a fraction of the cost. Some examples include predicting ocean circulation, local and regional weather, seasonal weather, vegetation growth and phenology, extreme weather modalities such as floods and wildfires, pollination patterns, agricultural productivity, renewable energy production and sea ice extent. With the ability to fine-tune Aurora to diverse application domains at only modest computational cost, Aurora represents notable progress in making actionable predictions accessible to anyone.” Aurora was developed by ML researchers and domain experts in meteorology and earth system modelling at Microsoft Research AI for Science in Amsterdam and Cambridge, UK. Link to paper Bodnar et al (2025) in the comments. Abstract Reliable forecasting of the Earth system is essential for mitigating natural disasters and supporting human progress. Traditional numerical models, although powerful, are extremely computationally expensive. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have shown promise in improving both predictive performance and efficiency, yet their potential remains underexplored in many Earth system domains. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data. Aurora outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone tracks and high-resolution weather, all at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. With the ability to be fine-tuned for diverse applications at modest expense, Aurora represents a notable step towards democratizing accurate and efficient Earth system predictions. These results highlight the transformative potential of AI in environmental forecasting and pave the way for broader accessibility to high-quality climate and weather information. #geoscience #earthscience #AI #artificialintelligence #geohazards #weather #climate #meteorology

Nature has just published Microsoft Research's Aurora, the first foundation #model of the #earth system. Aurora outperforms operational #forecasts in predicting #air quality, #ocean waves, tropical #cyclone tracks and high-resolution weather, all at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Aurora first learns how to generate forecasts through training on #weather patterns from over one #million hours of data. These data are derived from satellites, radar and weather stations, simulations, and forecasts. The model can then be fine-tuned to perform a variety of specific tasks such as predicting wave height or air quality. When #Typhoon Doksuri hit the Philippines in July 2023, the damage was devastating. As reported in Nature, Aurora accurately predicts Typhoon Doksuri’s landfall in the Philippines using measurements from four days in advance of the event (image below). Official predictions at that time mistakenly placed the storm off the coast of Northern Taiwan. Results like this show how #AI is paving the way toward democratizing high-quality climate and weather prediction.  Learn more here: https://lnkd.in/gNiM5tsQ Try it here: https://lnkd.in/gn9DZsry

Microsoft Research just published a paper in Nature about Aurora, a foundation model trained on over a million hours of Earth system data. The idea is simple: one model, pre-trained on diverse geophysical datasets, then fine-tuned for specific tasks like air quality, wave forecasting, tropical cyclones or high-resolution weather. The results they report are strong, especially in benchmarks. Faster, lighter, and often more accurate than current operational models. But it's still early. These are "offline" experiments. Forecasting in real conditions is another story. You have to deal with multiple data sources, numerous forecast. This means choosing, based on knowledge of the quality of the different models and experience of each weather situation and microclimate... Still, it's a clear sign of where things are going. The gap between physics-based modeling and AI is closing, fast. Link to the paper in the first comment! #AI #Weather #Climate #Aurora #Forecasting

I have been working in the AI world for quite a while, and nothing makes me more excited than seeing AI’s potential to transform our future for the collective good. As a very early leader and proponent in the AI for Good program at Microsoft, I have had the privilege of launching impactful initiatives and campaigns that have driven our mission forward. I am also honored to work closely with Microsoft Research. Their dedication and innovation in the field of AI has been a never-ending source of inspiration. When we talk about AI’s potential to transform our future for good, the kind of work below is what I’m talking about. Congratulations to the Microsoft Research team on this incredible achievement!   A new paper published in Nature demonstrates how Aurora, an AI foundation model developed by Microsoft Research, can predict a wide range of atmospheric events with greater precision and accuracy than traditional numerical methods and existing AI models. Built on flexible architecture using more than one million hours of diverse atmospheric data, Aurora doesn’t just forecast weather patterns – it can predict air quality, hurricanes and typhoons, the height of ocean waves, even sandstorms.   In the hands of climate researchers, meteorologists, and other scientists, this technology could be leveraged to enhance crop logistics, protect energy grids, support public health efforts, and help industries and governments better prepare for extreme climate events.     Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gDp8YEjS   #AI #MicrosoftResearch #Forecasting