The Impact of AI on Workforce Evolution

𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: History shows AI's impact on jobs will follow a familiar pattern of disruption and growth, but on a compressed 10-15 year timeline. Understanding past technological transitions helps us prepare for both the challenges and opportunities ahead. This is part 3 on the #EconomicsofAI. In one of prior posts (https://bit.ly/40tVLRI), I wrote about the history of economic value generation in tech transformations. But what does AI do for jobs? Read on: Looking at 250 years of technological disruption reveals a consistent pattern that will likely repeat with AI, just faster. My analysis of employment data across four major technological waves shows something fascinating: while specific jobs decline initially, total employment ultimately grows significantly – often 2-3x higher than pre-disruption levels. Here's what history tells us about AI's likely impact on jobs: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗘𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲: • 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟳𝟲𝟬-𝟭𝟴𝟰𝟬): 40% initial job decline, 80 years to full transformation • 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟴𝟳𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟭𝟰): 30% decline, 44 years to transform • 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟵𝟱𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬): 25% decline, 30 years • Digital Revolution (1980-2000): 15% decline, 20 years • 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟱): Projected 20% initial disruption, 10-15 years to transform 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀: • 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝗜𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Expect focused impact on knowledge workers, particularly in areas like content creation, analysis, & routine cognitive tasks. Unlike previous waves that started with manual labor, AI begins with cognitive tasks. • 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬: 𝗥𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 New job categories emerge rapidly as AI enables new business models. Just as the internet created roles like SEO specialists & social media managers, AI will spawn entirely new professional categories. • 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟱: 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Employment should exceed pre-AI levels as the economy reorganizes around AI capabilities, similar to how manufacturing employment grew 4x during the Second Industrial Revolution. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀: • Digital infrastructure already exists • Global talent pool can adapt more quickly • Market pressures demand faster adoption This will only happen if we treat AI as Augmented Intelligence! 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: The data shows that organizations that invest in workforce transformation during disruption emerge strongest. Focus on: • Identifying which roles will transform vs. disappear • Building internal training using resources from Anthropic Amazon Web Services (AWS) etc. • Creating new job categories that combine human+AI capabilities • Planning for the growth phase

The biggest AI impacts won’t be borne out in a calculus of jobs but rather in seismic shifts in the level of expertise required to do them. In our article in Harvard Business Review, Joseph Fuller, Michael Fenlon, and I explore how AI will bend learning curves and change job requirements as a result. It’s a simple concept with profound implications. In some jobs, it doesn’t take long to get up to speed. But in a wide array of jobs, from sales to software engineering, significant gaps exist between what a newbie and an experienced incumbent know. In many jobs with steep learning curves, our analysis indicates that entry-level skills are more exposed to GenAI automation than those of higher-level roles. In these roles, representing 1 in 8 jobs, entry-level opportunity could evaporate. Conversely, about 19% of workers are in fields where GenAI is likely to take on tasks that demand technical knowledge today, thereby opening up more opportunities to those without hard skills.   Our analysis suggests that, in the next few years, the better part of 50 million jobs will be affected one way or the other. The extent of those changes will compel companies to reshape their organizational structures and rethink their talent-management strategies in profound ways. The implications will be far reaching, not only for industries but also for individuals and society. Firms that respond adroitly will be best positioned to harness GenAI’s productivity-boosting potential while mitigating the risk posed by talent shortages.   I hope you will take the time to explore this latest collaboration between the The Burning Glass Institute and the Harvard Business School Project on Managing the Future of Work. I am grateful to BGI colleagues Benjamin Francis, Erik Leiden, Nik Dawson, Harin Contractor, Gad Levanon, and Gwynn Guilford for their work on this project. https://lnkd.in/ekattaQA #ai #artificialintelligence #humanresources #careers #management #futureofwork

Key takeaways from Mary Meeker's (340 page!) 2025 AI Trends report: 1. The Job market is actively reshaping with data showing a dramatic divergence in the labor market. Since January 2018, job postings in the USA requiring AI skills have skyrocketed by +448%, while non-AI IT job postings have declined by -9%. 2. It's about augmentation AND replacement. While the cliche that "You're not going to lose your job to an AI, but you're going to lose your job to somebody who uses AI" may be somewhat true, it's also true that companies are exploring agents to perform work, and this will have an impact on human jobs. HR and L&D need to really kick upskilling and integration into gear, empowering the workforce to use AI as a tool for productivity. 3. Company mandates on AI use are becoming the norm. Leading tech companies are no longer suggesting AI adoption - they're requiring it. Shopify now considers "reflexive AI usage" a "baseline expectation" for all employees. Duolingo is officially "AI-first," stating that AI use will be part of performance reviews and that new headcount will only be approved if a team cannot first automate its work. AI strategy starts at the top and leaders need to lead by example. 4. Employees are already seeing the benefits of AI - a survey of employed U.S. adults found that over 72% of those using AI chatbots at work say the tools are "extremely" or "very" helpful for doing things more quickly and improving the quality of their work. No surprise there, with the exception that perhaps the number should be higher than 72%. 5. The next generation of talent is AI-Native. Today's students are already leveraging AI for career readiness. A survey of 18-24 year-olds showed top use cases for ChatGPT include starting projects, summarizing texts, and career-related writing. Recruitment and onboarding strategies must adapt to a talent pool that expects AI tools from day one. So what does this all mean for HR and Talent leaders? This report signals a clear need to: 🚀 Rethink job descriptions & skill requirements - are you hiring for AI literacy? 🚀 Transform L&D - is your upskilling strategy focused on experiential learning and practical AI application or is it limited to online learning? 🚀 Update performance management - how will you measure and reward effective AI usage? 🚀 Adapt recruiting - how are you preparing to attract and retain an AI-native workforce? I don't think you can afford to take a "wait and see" approach. What are you and your company doing to get ahead and take full advantage of the benefits AI has to offer? Check out the full report here: https://lnkd.in/ed7j4Wi7 #AI #FutureOfWork #HumanResources #TalentAcquisition #Leadership

⚠️ With AI Reshaping the Entry-Level Workforce, Are We Reskilling Fast Enough? According to a The New York Times report, AI is now displacing entry-level white-collar roles, from marketing analysts to junior software engineers, faster than many leaders anticipated. 🚨 58% of recent grads are struggling to find jobs. 📉 Unemployment among new grads has surged to 5.8%. 🤖 AI tools are replacing entire teams, with one exec saying their company now avoids hiring entry level engineering roles. This headlines are early warning signs of a massive workforce transformation. But the bigger risk isn’t job loss, it’s leadership paralysis. If companies lean too hard into AI efficiency without investing in mentorship, career pathways, or reskilling, they may inadvertently wipe out the very pipeline of future innovators they need to grow. 💡 Here’s what forward-thinking leaders must do: 👉 Invest in AI fluency for all roles, not just the tech elite 👉 Create hybrid roles that pair human judgment with AI capabilities 👉 Reskill early-career talent to be problem solvers, not task-doers 👉 Double down on coaching and mentorship. Automation should never replace human development 👉 Rethink “entry-level” as a launchpad, not a line item for replacement We are not just managing change, we are shaping the future of work in real time. As a leadership coach, advisor, and L&D professional, I help organizations prepare for this organizational transformation by cultivating resilient, adaptive, and AI-literate teams from the ground up. The question is no longer if AI will change your workforce. It’s whether your people will be ready when it does. #Leadership #FutureOfWork #AITransformation #Reskilling #WorkforceDevelopment #LifelongLearning #TalentStrategy #LearningAndDevelopment #Coach #Advisor #MG100 #Thinkers50 #BestAdvice #JennyFernandez https://lnkd.in/etWFKRRN

AI and Job Losses: The Whole Picture The rise of AI is reshaping industries at an unprecedented pace, sparking widespread concern about job losses. Many fear that automation and generative AI will displace millions of workers, making traditional roles obsolete. While this disruption is real, the conversation often misses an equally important aspect: the jobs that AI is creating. Historically, technological advancements have always altered the job landscape—eliminating some roles while giving rise to new ones. The industrial revolution did not end employment; it transformed it. The same is happening with AI. Emerging fields such as AI ethics, machine learning operations, AI-powered customer service, and prompt engineering are creating opportunities we couldn’t have imagined a decade ago. Moreover, AI is enhancing productivity across industries, leading to the demand for new skills in healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and beyond. The net impact of AI on employment will likely depend on how we respond to this shift. If we invest in reskilling and upskilling workers, we may not see a net loss of jobs but rather a transition toward higher-skilled roles. Governments, corporations, and individuals must focus on lifelong learning and adaptability. The challenge is not just about job losses—it is about ensuring that people are equipped to move into the new roles AI is generating. Will AI eliminate jobs? Yes. But will it create new, often better-paying, and more fulfilling careers? Also yes. The question is whether we are ready to embrace this transformation. How do you see AI impacting your industry? Are we doing enough to prepare the workforce for this shift? Let’s discuss. #AI #FutureOfWork #Reskilling #JobMarket

Every customer and government leader I meet is asking, “How can we make AI a force for good for our people, and not a threat?” 92% of jobs are expected to undergo some level of transformation due to advancements in AI. The work begins with identifying and enabling the new skills and training needed for AI preparedness. That’s why I’m honored to share the insights from the AI-Enabled ICT Workforce Consortium's inaugural report, “The Transformational Opportunity of AI on ICT Jobs.” This report examines the impact of AI on 47 ICT job roles and offers tailored training recommendations. It's a unique guide to the skills needed for the AI future, with recommendations that couldn't be clearer, timelier, or more urgent. Here are some of the top takeaways: - 92% of ICT jobs will undergo high or moderate transformation due to AI. - 40% of mid-level and 37% of entry-level ICT positions will see high levels of transformation. - Skills like AI ethics, responsible AI, prompt engineering, and AI literacy will become crucial. - Foundational skills such as AI literacy and data analytics are essential across all ICT roles. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gWfPc8WT The risks associated with an under-skilled, unprepared workforce are global in scale, ranging from economic wage gaps to trade imbalances, technological stagnation, social and ethical issues, and national security threats. This creates a pressing need for a coordinated effort to reskill and upskill employees around the world. By investing in a long-term roadmap for an inclusive and skilled workforce, we can help all populations participate and thrive in the era of AI. Led by Cisco and joined by industry giants like Accenture, Eightfold, Google, IBM, Indeed, Intel Corporation, Microsoft, and SAP the Consortium will train and upskill 95 million people over the next 10 years through their individual organizations' commitments.

The latest study from the Council of Economic Advisers, The White House states that ~10% of jobs are vulnerable to AI disruption. That may seem alarming, but let’s take a step back. In 2018, 60% of the jobs Americans held didn't even exist in 1940—created by technologies that emerged over the years (David Autor). Here’s the real concern: Many AI-vulnerable jobs haven’t evolved to match their increasing complexity. Workers in these roles are more exposed to disruption because they haven’t been given the chance to upskill. But this isn't new. Economic evolution is the hallmark of a dynamic economy. Just like we’ve adapted to past technologies, workers and industries will adapt to AI. The key lies in how we approach it. Why businesses should care: Organizations that proactively identify and support employees vulnerable to AI disruption aren’t just doing good—they’re making smart financial decisions. 💡 Investing in upskilling and mobility for these workers could unlock millions in retention and productivity. Mass layoffs due to AI aren’t likely. The real shift? Slower hiring and reduced demand for certain roles. We’re already seeing fewer job postings for writers, coders, and even artists. So, what activities are at risk? Roles involved in processing information, analyzing data, scheduling, and administrative tasks are prime targets. Industries to watch? Architecture, engineering, legal, computer science, and mathematics. Surprising jobs at risk of AI disruption: Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers Nuclear Power Reactor Operators Private Detectives and Investigators Commercial and Industrial Designers These highly specialized roles, which traditionally require significant human judgment, are surprisingly vulnerable to AI-driven changes. Business leaders, what barriers are preventing you from launching upskilling initiatives to future-proof your workforce? The future of work is evolving, but we can shape how it unfolds. #FutureOfWork #AIandJobs #Upskilling #WorkforceTransformation #AI

Will you be able to find a job in your field at the same rate of pay or better in 3 to 5 years? AI’s impact on jobs isn’t measured by the unemployment rate. It’s showing up in the underemployment and participation rates. Underemployment, being unable to find work in your field, is rising across domains, and over 700,000 people left the workforce in May alone (Bloomberg). This chart shows a leading indicator: impact on recent graduates. Entry-level roles have been hit the hardest. However, most who have looked for a job in the last year will tell you that it’s harder to find a job in their field, with their current skills, and at the same compensation level, even with experience. Fields with the lowest underemployment rates have a shortage, indicated by a low unemployment rate. Two fields stand out with above-average unemployment and below-average underemployment: Computer Science and Computer Engineering Demand in both domains is high for people with data and AI skills, but falling for people without them. Technical talent must continuously reskill to remain relevant in the job market, but that’s not new. We’re used to reskilling every 5 years with new programming languages, tech stacks, and areas of focus. Technical ICs are eventually forced into entirely new tracks: leadership, product, founder, or strategy roles. However, technical capabilities and continuous reskilling are part of a growing number of fields that used to be nontechnical. The abilities to use AI tools, understand technical artifacts, and communicate with technical teams are emerging requirements across domains. We need to do a better job of preparing workers for the real-world impacts of AI instead of sharing the hype. Every role is adding technical capabilities. The future of work is here, and continuous reskilling is a massive shift most workers aren’t ready for.

Anthropic's CEO predicts 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs will vanish in 5 years. But let’s look deeper. AI's impact is undeniable, and  the human element should not be overlooked. In a recent Axios interview, Dario Amodei emphasized, “We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming.” He implied that AI companies and the government are "sugar-coating" what he described as massive future layoffs.* These alarming predictions understandably stir anxiety and uncertainty. The idea of AI rapidly replacing entry-level jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting, and other fields raises legitimate concerns. People are fearing: ✅ Future opportunities ✅ Professional growth ✅ General Uncertainty ✅ Career stability ✅ Loss of income While AI systems show impressive capabilities, they still face significant limitations and concerns. Let's not forget: 🔹 Inconsistent outputs 🔹 Ethics, bias, & legal Issues 🔹 Implementation barriers 🔹 High infrastructure costs 🔹 Complex role challenges AI is undeniably reshaping the workplace, and if Amodei's predictions become reality, the human impact will be felt for many years. Right now organizations are responding with: - Proactive retraining programs - AI-enhanced role transitions - Employee empowerment initiatives - Skills adaptation support - Career pathway development The reality? It is nuanced. AI will reshape work dramatically, but it won't replace all human value. I see a future with:  Augmentation over replacement,  and adaptation as the key to success. Behind every scary AI headline, there are real people facing real challenges. Leaders must support and empower their teams through change, while keeping in mind, that this is not just a technology implementation but a deep psychological shift. I’m Elise 🙋🏻♀️ Follow me for daily posts. I talk about responsible AI, future of work leadership, and personal growth. Dr. Elise Victor ♻️ Repost to share with your network. * "Behind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath" by Jim VandeHei & Mike Allen

What is the impact of AI on productivity and jobs? I get this question everywhere I go, from people at every title and tenure: from early career professionals through the most senior executives. Today, we take a great leap forward in answering the question with the launch of PwC's 2025 AI Jobs Barometer: The Fearless Future. What a story it tells!   We looked at nearly one billion job ads and thousands of company financial reports across 24 countries on six continents. Since the explosion of Gen AI, industries most "exposed" to AI (i.e., they have the greatest potential to use it), have three times (3x) higher growth in revenue per employee. In contrast, productivity growth in industries where deploying AI is more difficult ... it has flatlined. Every day, I hear insights and experiences about how AI is changing the way we work. The AI Jobs Barometer builds on these observations, providing the evidence in support of those experiences: it doesn't just feel like AI is revolutionizing the workplace, it actually is. In every one of the 80+ sectors we studied, the use of AI was increasing. And while there is reorganization and disruption, the data tells us that jobs are not disappearing, they're growing, with job growth happening across all sectors including those with the most exposure to AI. And upskilling in the Age of AI may feel more challenging given the pace, but it's paying off. Workers with AI skills are more sought after than ever, and they command significant wage premiums across sectors and geographies. Enterprises are working to move as quickly as the tech is advancing, with AI as a value play: not just powerful use cases, but true enterprise level integration and transformation. Remarkably, this is just the beginning, as agents have emerged as our transformative workforce of the future, combining the insights of AI with the action of agents. As they say, "this is a developing story," but our AI Jobs Barometer tells a story of growth and opportunity. This is the second year for the AI Jobs Barometer, and it's a privilege and pleasure to sponsor it with our Global Workforce Leader, Peter Brown MBE. Unlocking the value of AI is, of course, about driving the technology agenda. But it's also about how we as leaders rise to the challenge: How to drive the changes in working practices and culture that will multiply AI's value - not just for organizations, but for our people too. A huge thanks to Sarah Brown and the entire team for doing the hard work to bring this perspective to our clients and the market.   Take a look at the findings, and let me know what you think: https://pwc.to/3YTkyPa  Matt Wood | Scott Likens | Umang Paw | Rusbeh Hashemian | Bivek Sharma | Dan Priest | Matt Labovich | Bret Greenstein | Vishy Narayanan | Jennifer Kosar | Ilana Golbin Blumenfeld | Shivani Tailor | Carolina Saludes | Lauren Doherty | Luke Warwick | Paloma Lee | Dr. Charley Sehyo Choe | Daghan Or | Marc Borggreven | Keisha Roderick