AI Applications For Disaster Risk Reduction Planning

another recommendation that didn't make the op-ed: AI-Powered Debris Estimation for Faster, More Accurate Assessments Current Challenge: The existing debris reimbursement model relies on post-disaster damage assessments, which can be slow, bureaucratic, and often lead to disputes over the actual volume and cost of debris removal. AI Solution: FEMA should develop an AI-driven debris estimation tool that uses satellite imagery, LiDAR, historical disaster data, and machine learning models to predict debris volume immediately after an event. The model could be trained on past disaster events and refined with real-time inputs (e.g., wind speed, storm path, structural damage reports) to generate automated, rapid debris cost estimates. This would allow FEMA to pre-authorize funding within days instead of waiting weeks or months for full damage assessments. Upfront Payments to States Instead of Reimbursement Current Challenge: The reimbursement model requires local and state governments to front the costs, which can strain budgets and delay cleanup. Proposed Reform: Based on AI-generated debris estimates, FEMA could provide states with upfront lump-sum payments rather than relying on a reimbursement system tied to cubic yards of debris collected. This would allow states to mobilize debris contractors immediately instead of waiting for reimbursement approvals. A true-up process could follow, where adjustments are made if actual costs exceed or fall short of estimates. Benefits of This Approach ✅ Faster Recovery: Reduces delays caused by slow reimbursement processes, getting debris cleared quickly to restore infrastructure. ✅ Cost Efficiency: AI modeling can improve cost projections, reducing disputes and fraud associated with overestimated cubic yard measurements. ✅ Better Resource Allocation: States won’t have to wait for FEMA assessments before securing contracts and mobilizing cleanup efforts. ✅ Equity in Funding: Helps underfunded local governments that struggle with cash flow for immediate debris removal efforts.

Every year, natural disasters hit harder and closer to home. But when city leaders ask, "How will rising heat or wildfire smoke impact my home in 5 years?"—our answers are often vague. Traditional climate models give sweeping predictions, but they fall short at the local level. It's like trying to navigate rush hour using a globe instead of a street map. That’s where generative AI comes in. This year, our team at Google Research built a new genAI method to project climate impacts—taking predictions from the size of a small state to the size of a small city. Our approach provides: - Unprecedented detail – in regional environmental risk assessments at a small fraction of the cost of existing techniques - Higher accuracy – reduced fine-scale errors by over 40% for critical weather variables and reduces error in extreme heat and precipitation projections by over 20% and 10% respectively - Better estimates of complex risks – Demonstrates remarkable skill in capturing complex environmental risks due to regional phenomena, such as wildfire risk from Santa Ana winds, which statistical methods often miss Dynamical-generative downscaling process works in two steps: 1) Physics-based first pass: First, a regional climate model downscales global Earth system data to an intermediate resolution (e.g., 50 km) – much cheaper computationally than going straight to very high resolution. 2) AI adds the fine details: Our AI-based Regional Residual Diffusion-based Downscaling model (“R2D2”) adds realistic, fine-scale details to bring it up to the target high resolution (typically less than 10 km), based on its training on high-resolution weather data. Why does this matter? Governments and utilities need these hyperlocal forecasts to prepare emergency response, invest in infrastructure, and protect vulnerable neighborhoods. And this is just one way AI is turbocharging climate resilience. Our teams at Google are already using AI to forecast floods, detect wildfires in real time, and help the UN respond faster after disasters. The next chapter of climate action means giving every city the tools to see—and shape—their own future. Congratulations Ignacio Lopez Gomez, Tyler Russell MBA, PMP, and teams on this important work! Discover the full details of this breakthrough: https://lnkd.in/g5u_WctW  PNAS Paper: https://lnkd.in/gr7Acz25