Why the Smartest Brands Are Rethinking Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Every November, the industry falls into the same rhythm: Black Friday. Cyber Monday. Massive ad spend. Bigger promotions. Repeat.

But here’s the thing for 2025. The data tells a different story.

Over the past year, our team analyzed performance across Amazon, Walmart, and Target during the Thanksgiving shopping window. What we found might make you rethink your Q4 playbook.

The Real Gold Isn’t Just in the Turkey 5. It’s Around It.

When we looked beyond the “Turkey 5” (the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday), something interesting happened.

Ad costs dropped by nearly 40 percent in the five days before and after the promotional window, while conversion rates were up to 22 percent higher. In other words, shoppers were buying more efficiently when everyone else was focused on the main event.

The takeaway is simple. High intent does not disappear when the deals end.

Shoppers start browsing early, and many who hold off during peak sale days circle back once the frenzy fades. They are less distracted, more decisive, and often feeling what we call “non-buyer’s remorse.”

Understanding the ‘Non-Buyer’s Remorse’ Audience

Not everyone who added an item to cart on Black Friday checked out. Some hesitated. Others got busy. Many woke up Tuesday morning wishing they had hit “buy.”

That group, what Jacob Snelson calls the non-buyer’s remorse audience, is a goldmine. They have already shown intent, but they are still in-market. They just need the right nudge.

Think of it this way. If you have ever regretted not grabbing a deal, you are not alone. The smartest retail media strategies mirror that same human behavior.

How to Capture the Post-Sale Opportunity

1. Retarget the Non-Buyers Use DSP or retail media network audiences to identify shoppers who viewed or added products to cart during the promo window but did not purchase. Serve them personalized creative with gentle reminders or “lesser deals” that make re-entry easy.
2. Launch Your “Lead-Out” Campaigns Early Do not let your media plan end on Cyber Monday. The 72 hours after it ends are prime time for shoppers second-guessing their decisions. Run reminder ads, email pushes, or “Your Cart is Calling” messaging while the emotional connection is still fresh.
3. Keep the Momentum Rolling The week after Cyber Monday is not a cooldown period. It is a bridge to December gifting season. Reuse warm audiences from your Black Friday campaign to fuel upper-funnel storytelling and drive repeat consideration through the rest of Q4.
4. Balance Spend Across the Funnel We have said it before, but it bears repeating: performance and brand campaigns cannot live in silos. Align search, video, and DSP retargeting for a connected journey that guides shoppers from discovery to decision, even after the sale ends.

Our Take: Rethinking the “All-In” Mentality

For years, brands treated Black Friday and Cyber Monday like “make or break” moments. The pressure to compete created an unsustainable cycle of inflated CPCs, eroded margins, and overreliance on discounts.

This year, the most strategic brands are taking a more balanced approach. They are spreading budgets across the full promotional curve and investing in lead-in and lead-out windows where shoppers are active, intent is high, and competition is lower.

In short, stop chasing the crowd. Start following the customer.

The Big Three Are Evolving Too

• Amazon is pushing advertisers to think full-funnel with AMC audience modeling and remarketing tools that make re-engagement easier than ever.
• Walmart Connect is leveraging generative AI to personalize holiday ads and reduce wasted impressions.
• Target’s Roundel continues to expand beyond onsite placements, offering new options to reach guests after the sale through Circle 360 and paid social integrations.

All three are helping brands reach shoppers wherever they are in the decision cycle, before, during, and after the deal days.

Now what?

The best campaigns this holiday season will not just win the cart. They will win the comeback.

It is not about chasing the cheapest click. It is about staying relevant when everyone else has gone quiet.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday might still own the headlines, but the days around them are where smart retail media delivers its quiet victories.