Where Will the AI Geniuses Go?

The geopolitics of AI are evolving, and CEOs are paying close attention: massive investments are flowing into infrastructure, capital is plentiful, and the US continues to attract top global talent. But maintaining future leadership might hinge less on resources and more on attracting the brilliant minds behind groundbreaking AI innovations.

That’s the conclusion of a recent BCG Henderson Institute (BHI) report, which highlights how changes in US immigration policies and public research funding could create opportunities for other countries and regions to attract AI talent. This shift could substantially enhance ongoing efforts to create alternative innovation hubs in Canada, Europe, and the Gulf.

Even a modest shift in where top AI researchers choose to call home could create significant innovation opportunities for other nations.

Two AI Talent Pools, Two Different Challenges

Tech giants are understandably concerned about how tariffs might affect the cost of data center expansion in the US. Despite this uncertainty, the US will likely maintain its lead in capital and computing power—key sources of advantage in the global GenAI race.

The picture gets more complex when considering the potential effects of restrictions on student and research visas and the proposed cuts to public research funding, both of which could impact the flow of global AI talent to the US. But fully grasping the strategic implications requires distinguishing clearly between two distinct AI talent pools.

For the broader AI workforce—the engineers and developers who implement and scale AI solutions—the US remains the top global destination. Compensation at US tech firms often doubles that offered by non-US companies, and recruiters anticipate that US companies will likely respond to recent policy shifts with even more attractive compensation packages.

Even a modest shift in where top AI researchers choose to call home could create significant innovation opportunities for other nations.

The second talent pool, though smaller, is strategically critical: elite AI researchers whose work drives foundational breakthroughs in AI. Foreign nationals represent over half of all US doctorates in computer science and mathematics. With proposed US budget cuts potentially slashing funding for key institutions like the National Science Foundation by up to 56%, the attractiveness of US universities to top global talent could decline.

Breakthrough innovations frequently emerge from academic research labs: their work lays the groundwork for commercially transformative technologies, at which point private investment takes over. Even a modest shift in where these top AI researchers choose to call home could create significant opportunities for other nations.

The Opportunity for GenAI Middle Powers

In response to these shifts, a number of countries with ambitions to become global suppliers of AI—what we call the GenAI “middle powers”—are moving decisively to position themselves as attractive alternatives for top AI talent:

• The EU has allocated nearly $600 million over two years to attract foreign researchers, including prestigious long-term grants.
• France’s “Choose France for Science” initiative dedicates over $100 million specifically to recruiting US-based researchers.
• The UK and Australia have announced multimillion-dollar programs aimed at attracting leading AI minds.
• Japan, Australia, and the UAE are offering financial incentives and logistical support to lure AI workers.

As AI models become increasingly commoditized, the next wave of competitive advantage will stem directly from groundbreaking innovation and research—areas deeply influenced by the research talent that these countries are working hard to attract. Business leaders who actively monitor and respond to global talent shifts, and the innovation hubs around them, will be better positioned to shape, rather than follow, the future of AI.

More of our top reads on artificial intelligence:

• Where Will Tomorrow’s AI Geniuses Go?
• The New Geopolitics of Global Talent
• CEOs Aren’t Thinking Big Enough with AI
• How CEOs Can Navigate the New Geopolitics of GenAI
• How to Prepare for an AI-First Future