When will my boss be an algorithm?

In his now seminal 2018 book, “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,” Kai-Fu Lee paints a semi-dystopian picture of how AI will replace a large majority of the workforce.

He differentiates between humans and AI along two axes:  Social and Creative aptitudes.

His premise is, “While humans lack AI’s ability to analyze huge numbers of data points at the same time, people have a unique ability to draw on experience, abstract concepts, and common sense to make decisions.” 

This uniquely human decision-making capability is based upon on our innate ability to think creatively and strategically.

The other axis - the ability to provide competent social interaction - he captures thusly:

“For all of AI’s astounding capabilities, the one thing that only humans can provide turns out to also be exactly what is most needed in our lives: love. It’s that moment when we see our newborn babies, the feeling of love at first sight, the warm feeling from friends who listen to us empathetically, or the feeling of self-actualization when we help someone in need.”

In 2018, when the book was published, Lee’s premise was that it may be a very long time, if ever when AI becomes creative, strategic and empathetic.  The theory being that jobs which require adept social interaction and abstract thought will be harder for AI to replace.

Hence, he created the following graph of which types of jobs might be quickly and easily replaced by AI:

Not so fast…

I posit that perhaps the only attribute that AI will not be able to immediately replace is physical contact.  However, in this day of virtual Teams calls, texting vs. talking and video messaging, actual face-to-face contact is becoming less frequent. 

For example, I don’t live in the same geographical location as my kids or parents; yet I see them on video weekly.  I have never physically met the majority of my customers (post-COVID), yet I feel like I am delivering high-quality work product.

In fact, at Microsoft, I have not physically met my last three managers!  (How do I even know that they actually exist?).

It is my contention that this virtual arena is truly AI’s bailiwick. 

Can an algorithm replace a manager?

According to Copilot, a successful manager should possess the following traits:

1. Communication Skills
2. Empathy and Emotional Intelligence
3. Leadership and Vision
4. Decision-Making Ability
5. Adaptability and Flexibility
6. Delegation and Empowerment
7. Integrity and Accountability
8. Problem-Solving Skills
9. Positive Attitude and Inspiration
10. Continuous Learning and Development

Let’s divide them up into Lee’s Social/Creative vs. Asocial/Optimization-based matrix:

Looks like it's 50/50:  Half of the skills are considered out of reach for a “robotic, unfeeling” AI algorithm. 

That being said, most engineering types would freely admit that AI’s sweet spot is on the Asocial/Optimization side of the table:  as AI’s performance would be far better than any human – particularly concerning the last two attributes:  Problem Solving Skills and Continuous Learning & Development. 

Here’s the rub

An algorithm – at least for now – does not have the negative human traits of fear and insecurity which often manifest into “ulterior motives.”  Therefore, AI would actually have some advantages when learning these “soft skills”:

The future of Generative AI

According to recent news reports, Microsoft is actively working on enhancing Copilot's emotional intelligence (EQ) to make interactions more natural and empathetic. Here are some of the key updates and plans:

1. Enhanced Voice Capabilities

Microsoft is introducing Copilot Voice, which allows for smoother and more natural conversations. This feature aims to make interactions feel more like speaking with a person rather than a robot.  If you watch this video, you will see (hear) that this feature is quite far along.  The sound of this guy’s voice at least to me is quite reassuring.  Check it out for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op1kuT3zu_I

2. Copilot Vision

Copilot Vision is a feature currently under development that could prove useful for desktop users.  Built natively into the Microsoft Edge browser, Copilot Vision sees whatever you’re looking at on your computer and can talk to you about it in real time. It understands the web page you’re viewing (both text and images) and can answer questions about the content, suggest next steps, and so on.   This demo video is quite amazing to hear Copilot’s inspiring interaction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSOp4uhgSjw

3. Think Deeper

The Think Deeper feature is designed to assist with complex decision-making, offering thoughtful and context-aware responses to help users with significant life choices such as deciding which city to move to or the best type of car to suit your needs. It can also help solve complicated math problems or write more advanced code.

This feature is still in its infancy and undergoing development, so Microsoft has placed it in its experimental Copilot Labs to test and get feedback from folks.

4. Personalized Interactions

Features like Copilot Daily provide personalized summaries of news and weather, delivered in a chosen voice. This personalization helps create a more engaging and relatable user experience

5. Enhanced Collaboration Tools

Updates in Microsoft 365 Copilot include new tools for collaboration, such as Business Chat and Copilot Pages, which facilitate more intelligent and empathetic interactions in a business context

These updates are part of Microsoft's broader strategy to make AI more intuitive and emotionally intelligent, enhancing the overall user experience.  You can read more about them here:  https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/01/microsoft-copilot-can-now-read-your-screen-think-deeper-and-speak-aloud-to-you/ or watch the ABC News story here: https://youtu.be/vs28Gsch-Mw?si=dXC13oyNk-gjuv4u

We should assume that these features will eventually work really well.  As there was between GPT3 and GPT4, there will be an order of magnitude advancement in functionality between whatever “EQ boost” features are being released now and future-gen improvements. 

My Boss the Algorithm

Let’s call this next-gen Copilot, High-EQ Copilot.  And let’s assume that it will have evolved communication, emotional recognition and enhanced inspirational skills.  What could be the natural result?

I will posit that in some ways – not having human-based fear and insecurity might be a positive.  There might be less guilt involved in delivering more direct feedback.  There would be less reason to lie about something to preserve your own self-worth.  There would be less fear of being reprimanded or fired since mistakes will naturally garner additional algorithm training and subsequent self-improvement.

If this is true, what can the manager matrix look like in the not-so-distant future?  How would High-EQ Copilot master a manager’s required soft skills?

Let’s look at the original skills that might have previously not been considered appropriate for an AI algorithm to handle and contemplate how a High-EQ Copilot might develop them:

I know that many of you are skeptical that AI might develop either pseudo or real EQ. But every time I hear negative comments about AI such as, “AI music sucks;” or “Copilot can’t create a good logo.”  My single-worded response is always the same:  "YET." I say this based upon this age-old graph:

The simple fact is that each person’s capacity for improvement flattens over time, whereas AI’s improvement is limitless.

The Pitfalls of Virtuality

Perhaps we should pivot in terms of our future expectations of AI’s impact on the workforce and instead of bifurcating EQ and IQ, we instead differentiate between on-site and virtual.

A good example of this is the medical industry.  It is now conventional wisdom that diagnostics are far more accurate when done by an algorithm trained on tens of millions of x-rays rather than a human doctor trained on only a few thousand.

And per my previous point - an algorithm posing as a virtual doctor avatar could develop a bedside manner equal to or better than a human doctor. And we will probably see AI-assisted surgery becoming more available. 

But what will be hard to replace are Chiropractors.  I don’t know about you, but I have never been a fan of massage chairs as they don’t seem to be able to replicate the human touch.  Perhaps that’s why chiropractors are last position McKinsey believes will be replaced by AI as depicted on the graph below:

AI Avatars Will Eventually Capture the Virtual Space

If we’re already using avatars to represent us on Teams calls, then why not interact with a “real” one (meaning an actual bot). Think about it: How will you be able to tell the difference between a high-EQ, Copilot avatar and a human-powered one?

Ironically, Amazon has recently made two somewhat diametrically opposed announcements:

1.      Amazon tells employees to return to office five days a week

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/amazon-jassy-tells-employees-to-return-to-office-five-days-a-week.html

2.      Amazon is reportedly planning to lay off around 14,000 managers by early 2025 as part of an efficiency drive

https://news.abplive.com/business/amazon-layoffs-tech-firm-to-cut-14-000-manager-positions-by-2025-ceo-andy-jassy-1722182

My conclusion is that It would make sense if a company is thinking about eliminating its managers, that they would want to expand their virtual footprint rather than eliminating it.

As work-from-home and digital nomad scenarios expand, AI will gain a greater opportunity to infiltrate the human workforce.  Therefore, if you don’t want to be replaced, find a job where you actually have to SHOW UP.

**Disclaimer: I love my boss and certainly do not wish him to be replaced by an algorithm** :)