Swing State: Navigating Canada’s Investment Landscape

by Christine Tessier, CFA, CAIA , Chief Investment Officer, Canada

As Canada prepares to host this year’s Global Investment Forum (GIF), the timing feels especially fitting. This has been a year of reflection, a moment for the country to reconsider its place in an increasingly complex global economy.

Setting the Scene – GIF Canada in Context

Long defined by stability, pragmatism, and resource-driven strength, Canada now finds itself balancing heritage and innovation, domestic identity and global interdependence. Its investment landscape is evolving, shaped by the rise of private markets, rapid technological change, and the growing influence of sustainability and regulation.

Private markets, once the preserve of large institutions, appear to be broadening and diversifying. Allocations may reach into structured credit, ABS financing, and trade finance, while new technology and wealth channels are opening these opportunities to a wider audience.

Canada is seeing the same quasi-retail participation that has already transformed markets in Australia, blurring the boundaries between public and private capital and contributing to the demand for evergreen structures that offer greater liquidity and transparency.

At the same time, investors appear to be adapting to a new generation of macroeconomic and environmental forces. Climate scenario testing is reshaping the financial and insurance sectors, while debate continues over how fast the country should move on energy transition.

Real estate and infrastructure seem to be showing signs of recovery, and investors are increasingly adopting holistic frameworks such as the Total Portfolio Approach, a strategy that integrates liquidity, risk, and performance across portfolios. It’s a mindset that captures the essence of the Canadian market itself: innovative yet measured, globally connected yet deeply grounded in trust and stability.

Defining Canada’s Moment: From Market Shifts to National Storytelling

At Mercer, we emphasize the importance of building resilient, adaptable portfolios through collaboration. In today’s environment, resilience and partnership are not merely advantages, they are essential to turning volatility into opportunity. That’s why our flagship Global Investment Forum (GIF) returns to Toronto on 27–28 October 2025, convening asset owners, managers, and investment leaders from around the world for two days of discussion, debate, and actionable insight.

This year’s theme, “Swing State,” captures the moment. Investors are recalibrating, shifting focus back to the long term after years defined by short-term shocks and rapid change. We’ll begin by reflecting on the past five years: a period marked by extreme growth fluctuations, declining institutional confidence, geopolitical tensions, record debt levels, soaring inflation and rapid AI adoption.

Beyond markets and models lies a deeper story, one rooted in identity. The conversation in Toronto will unfold against a backdrop of renewed national confidence, as Canada reasserts its independence in trade, redefines its global relationships, and amplifies the diverse voices shaping its future.

Among them are Indigenous communities whose growing influence is central to the country’s vision for sustainable growth. This sense of reflection and renewal runs through every part of this year’s Forum, a celebration not only of Canadian investment insight but of Canadian character.

We’re honored to welcome two icons who embody that spirit of excellence. Margaret Atwood, author of more than fifty acclaimed works of fiction, poetry, and nonfiction, will join me to explore the stories we tell, how narrative shapes our understanding of uncertainty and how communication can guide decision-making in volatile times. Her perspective reminds us that resilience begins with how we frame and interpret the world around us.

Dr. Hayley Wickenheiser, four-time Olympic gold medalist and member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, will sit down with Todd Nelson, Mercer’s Wealth Practice Leader, to share lessons from her extraordinary career. A pioneer on and off the ice, she will offer her insights on redefining the status quo and leading with purpose, encouraging delegates to craft their own playbook for success in a dynamic and demanding environment.

Across two days, GIF Toronto will feature an inspiring mix of panel discussions and focused breakout sessions examining the major forces reshaping global and Canadian portfolios.

On the Swing State stage, Bonnie Foley-Wong and Nick White will assess the key opportunities and risks on the horizon, helping investors anticipate what’s next. Our North American team will lead From Niche to Norm, a deep dive into the expanding role of private credit, an asset class rapidly evolving from niche to mainstream, transforming capital markets and financing options for businesses.

Among this year’s standout breakouts, Private Markets Liquidity — Fact or Fiction? will explore how investors may be unlocking liquidity through smarter structuring and transparency across private equity, real assets, and hedge funds. Building the Alts Portfolio of the Future will share lessons from leading allocators on constructing sustainable alternatives in uncertain markets. Navigating the Demographic Shift will tackle profound changes in retirement systems, from longevity and declining birth rates to CAPSA 10 implementation and the evolving landscape of DB and DC plan management.

Sustainability will remain central to our discussions. Stewardship in Action — Driving Change Through Active Engagement will highlight how investors are refining stewardship approaches and balancing fiduciary duty with stakeholder priorities.

Resilience Through Collaboration

Collaboration has never been more vital. In today’s complex macroeconomic environment, meaningful progress depends on strong partnerships, across stakeholder groups, asset classes, and borders. Canada’s experience offers a masterclass in balance and resilience, a market that may be concentrated and a regulatory landscape that may be complex, yet one that remains pragmatic, globally connected, and locally grounded. It’s an approach that captures the essence of a true “swing state”, adaptable, collaborative, and built for the long view.

We look forward to welcoming you to Toronto for two days of insight and innovation.

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