Not So Grand Re-Opening

In this November 12, 2025 edition of Liquid Real Assets (LRA) Market Update, John Vojticek and team take a look at how public markets viewed listed real assets (real estate, infrastructure, natural resources and commodities).

Click below for the full report, including our Market Commentary, Why it Matters and:

Macro Dive:

• U.S. Data
• Canadian Indicators
• Asia

Real Assets, Real Insights:

• Unlocking the West (Real Estate)
• Portside (Infrastructure)
• Overflowing (Commodities)

Market Index Returns

Week to date since November 05, 2025 as of November 12, 2025

Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Market Commentary

While the U.S. isn’t under new management, the federal government is re-opening after a 43-day hiatus. It is a matter of opinion as to who “won” the standoff, but the federal employees who were furloughed or forced to work without pay were definitely not the winners. The estimated hit to U.S. GDP is expected to reduce fourth quarter GDP by 1.3 percentage points, bringing it close to zero. However, much of that impact should reverse in the first quarter of 2026. (1) It remains to be seen whether we will ever receive the full accounting of October’s data, even with a delay. The unemployment and inflation reports appear most likely to be impaired as the surveys were not even conducted. However, employers were able to submit payroll data, which provides a limited view of employment. But without the survey itself, we won’t have an actual unemployment rate. The inflation report might not be released either and impacts the housing survey, which represents one-third of the CPI weight — could last until spring. The release of government data is expected to elevate volatility in the market to the extent that it conflicts with investors’ current positioning. Other potential sparks to capital market volatility could come from the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the validity of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs in December and a new Fed chair in January.

During the review period, Real Assets outperformed Global Equities on the strength of Natural Resource Equities, Global Infrastructure Securities, and Commodity Futures. Global equities saw strong returns in the Healthcare, Materials, and Energy sectors, but overall performance was hampered by negative returns in the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors. The Real Asset Index saw U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) and Global Real Estate securities underperform despite positive returns. Across other market indicators, the VIX, a measure of 30-day expected stock market volatility, fell 2.8% to end the period at 17.5. Breakeven yields, a measure of implied inflation, fell 3 bps in the 5-year segment and 2 bps in the 10-year segment. Gold prices ended the period 5.4% higher at $4,195/ounce. Oil prices fell 1.1% to end the period at $58.5/barrel and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.7% against major trading partners. Credit spreads widened 3 bps for investment grade credits and tightened 5 bps for the high yield space. (1)

In the full report:

Why it matters: We still seek a lifting of the fog that will allow the Fed to plot their path forward. The expectations market has moved to roughly 50/50 probability on whether the Fed will cut rates in December. The Fed and the markets might have to feel their way through the lack of October data and plug in an interpolated bootstrap inflation value for their models. Either way, expected volatility during a seasonally low period of liquidity could weigh on investors heading into year end. This week we will review the latest data from the U.S., Canada, and Asia.

Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we look at real estate in Sydney, port activity, and the state of the oil market.

Click here to read the full report.

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(1) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, as of November 12, 2025

Any mentions of specific properties or securities are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the authors and may not come to pass. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, views and hypothetical models or analyses, which might prove inaccurate or incorrect.  Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. All investments involve risks, including potential loss of principal. Index returns do not reflect fees or expenses, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Glossary

One basis point (bps) equals 1/100 of a percentage point.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) traces 23 commodities and reflects commodity futures price movements.

Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation Notes Total Return Index includes all publicly-traded U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities that have at least one year remaining to maturity, are rated investment grade and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.

Credit spread is the difference between the yield (return) of two different debt instruments with the same maturity but different credit ratings.

The Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index measures the performance of pure-play infrastructure companies domiciled globally.

Earnings refer to a company’s net income or profit over a specific period, typically reported quarterly or annually. They represent the amount a company makes after subtracting expenses, taxes, and costs from its total revenue. (Bloomberg)

FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index represents general trends in global real estate equities.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, often referred to as "the Fed," is the central bank of the United States.

High-yield bonds are issued by below-investment-grade-rated issuers and usually offer a relatively high yield.

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

Inflation breakeven yield (or breakeven inflation rate) is the difference in yield between a nominal Treasury bond and a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity. This spread reflects the market’s expectation of future inflation over the life of the bond. (Bloomberg)

Investment grade (IG) refers to a credit rating from a rating agency that indicates that a bond has a relatively low risk of default.

The Nasdaq Composite Index is an equity index which contains all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ exchange. 

The MSCI World Index tracks the performance of mid- and large-cap stocks in 23 developed countries around the world.

A nominal value in economics is not adjusted for inflation; a real value is.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international organization with the mandate to ”coordinate and unify the petroleum policies“ of its meanwhile 12 members.

A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a company that owns and, in most cases, operates income-producing real estate. REITs sell like a stock on the major exchanges and invest in real estate directly, either through properties or mortgages.

The S&P 500 is an index that includes 500 leading U.S. companies capturing approximately 80% coverage of available U.S. market capitalization.

S&P Global Natural Resources Index includes 90 of the largest publicly-traded companies in natural resources and commodities businesses that meet specific investability requirements, offering investors diversified and investable equity exposure across 3 primary commodity-related sectors: agribusiness, energy and metals/mining.

The spread is the difference between the quoted rates of return on two different investments, usually of different credit quality.

A tariff is a tax imposed by one country on the goods and services imported from another country.

Treasuries are fixed-interest U.S. government debt securities with different maturities: Treasury bills (1 year maximum), Treasury notes (2 to 10 years), Treasury bonds (20 to 30 years) and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) (5, 10 and 30 years).

Treasury Inflation-Protected securities (TIPS) are a form of U.S. Treasury bonds designed to protect investors against inflation. These bonds are indexed to inflation and pay investors a fixed interest rate as the bond's par value adjusts with the inflation rate.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. It is a popular measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 as implied in the short-term option prices on the index.

Yield is the income return on an investment referring to the interest or dividends received from a security and is usually expressed annually as a percentage based on the investment's cost, its current market value or its face value.

A yield curve shows the annualized yields of fixed-income securities across different contract periods as a curve. When it is inverted, bonds with longer maturities have lower yields than those with shorter maturities.

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