November 2025

Did AI squash the labor market’s vibe? 😡

As the year winds down, 170 million people in the U.S. workforce are wishing they could ask the 2025 labor market one question:

Why are you being like this?  

The easy response to this (and seemingly every other question lately) is “AI, baby!” And while we agree that AI will reshape the world of work in many ways, what we’ve seen over the past 11 months isn’t as simple as “AI took all the jobs.” Allow us a little myth-busting:

- There’s no evidence of “discernible disruption” to jobs since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, according to a report from Yale’s Budget Lab. Many of today’s workforce trends were already in motion long before the so-called “AI-pocalypse”. Even transformational tech like the internet took decades to truly change how people work.

- Large organizations are investing heavily in generative AI, but few are seeing meaningful ROI yet. Smaller businesses? Many aren’t ready to commit to tools whose benefits are still unproven.

- Soft skills remain in high demand, as do specialized roles AI can’t easily replicate (yes, including those who know how to fix AI 😬).   

So if AI isn’t outright replacing employees, what’s behind the headlines about layoffs and “AI-driven” restructuring?  It’s likely that what we’re seeing is a mix of many forces, including over-hiring in the post-pandemic boom, shifting business priorities and of course some experimentation with AI. The truth? The labor market is still finding its new rhythm. We’ll keep watching it evolve — and we’ll let the data, not the drama, tell the story.

Delivering the (compensation) package in 2026 🎁 

What’s next for pay in 2026? Our latest Robert Half Real Talk session assembled a crew of industry experts to discuss. Backed by the latest insights from our Salary Guide, here’s what we learned.  

Comp strategy = people strategy - Employees who feel valued, stay. Those who don’t, leave. Frequent salary reviews, transparent pay conversations and purposeful training are all part of the picture.

Specialized skills lead to premium pay - 83% of leaders are willing to pay more for candidates with hard-to-find skills, especially a mix of soft skills and tech knowledge.

Humanized perks are the new retention tool - Ping-pong tables are great, but incentives like mental health support and flexible schedules help employees feel genuinely valued.

In-person with a purpose - 66% of professionals said they would work in the office full-time for more money. If employers want RTO without upping pay, they’ll need to make office time worth it – connection, collaboration and culture need to feel like part of the compensation package.

Bring the confidence and the data - In this market, asking for a raise takes more than “I feel I deserve it.” Candidates who research market rates and make fact-based cases have a much better shot at success.  

The takeaway? Compensation is no longer just a paycheck conversation. It’s about purpose, flexibility and growth – and the organizations that align all three will be the ones that attract (and keep) the talent everyone else wants.

Job market by the numbers 💼

- Government jobs reports continue to be delayed by the federal shutdown, which ended on Nov. 13, but data for September may be released as soon as this week. It appears the October report will also be released eventually, minus some key data that was not collected during the shutdown.

- Employers added 42,000 jobs in October, ADP reported, characterizing the growth as “modest” compared to earlier this year. Most of the hiring came from large companies with more than 500 employees.

- Optimism among small business owners declined, but hiring plans reached their highest point since January at 16%. Owners’ top concerns included finding skilled employees, and supply chain / inflationary issues.

- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this year. The cuts, aimed at boosting the weakened labor market, could encourage some cautious employers to move forward with hiring.  

- The confidence level among CEOs bounced to its second-highest point since January amid lower interest rates and hopes of further deregulation. Many leaders still expressed some uncertainty about business conditions over the next several months.

Holiday hiring hustle 🏃

If you treat Q4 hiring like last-minute holiday shopping, expect to end up equally stressed and potentially disappointed with the results. Here are a few quick tips to make sure you check off the staffing needs on your list.

- Everyone is less responsive during the holidays. Build in enough time for interviews and decision-making on the candidate side, as well as yours.

- If you’ve got “use-it-or-lose-it” funds, move fast, but not too fast. A thoughtful hiring process now avoids mismatches later. We can help!

- Use December to identify leadership and other critical roles for Q1 onboarding. Get the ball rolling with passive candidates and any internal stakeholders now. It may seem like you’ve got plenty of time, but we all know how quickly this season can fly by.