Consumer Fear Tests Holiday Cheer

Wall Street expects America’s two-speed economy to persist into the new year, driven by a slowing labor market, falling consumer confidence, rising credit stress, and a widening economic divide between affluent and mass-market consumers. Early holiday shopping patterns echo this, with higher-income households outspending lower-income segments. In this K-shaped environment, holiday sales are expected to deliver modest growth as income bifurcation forces retailers to lean on promotions and discounting to drive traffic.  

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An excerpt of an AlphaSense Deep Research answer provides more context on expectations for consumers and industries this holiday season.

• Holiday 2025 shopping trends: Early data shows solid but value-focused growth with retail sales expected to grow +3.5% to +4.2% YoY to just over $1T, driven by e-commerce outpacing stores (+7.9% vs +2.3%) as consumers prioritize discounts and promotions. Income bifurcation continues to define consumer behavior, with higher-income households spending +2.7% YoY versus lower-income at just +0.7%, while affluent cross-border e-commerce spending remains robust.
• Winners vs laggards: Retailers that can consistently meet the 30%+ discount baseline, personalize offers, and integrate BNPL will capture constrained wallets, while categories dependent on full-price selling or bulky, non-urgent purchases lag. 
• Categories expected to outperform: Signals from luxury houses and beauty peers indicate affluent-led strength in hard luxury and prestige beauty, with soft luxury stabilizing rather than accelerating. Commentary points to high-premium beauty momentum across the U.S. and Europe.

Source: AlphaSense Deep Research (November 17, 2025)

Chart of The Day 

With official data delayed by the government shutdown, private and public indicators are signaling a slowing labor market, as evidenced by a sharp increase in the use of the words "job cuts" across all documents within the AlphaSense platform.  

Technology Spotlight

Michelle Brophy , Director of Research, TMT

Has OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion in buildout commitments shifted AI sentiment?

OpenAI’s recently announced buildout commitments totaling $1.4 trillion have increased scrutiny across the AI ecosystem. The setup for 2026 could be a decisive one, with hyperscalers guiding to another step-up in cloud and compute capex, and early enterprise adopters scrutinizing return on investment. In parallel, sponsors and vendors such as Oracle are leaning heavily on debt and structured finance to fund capacity.

Wall Street View

Wall Street is bullish on the AI trade, though focused on fundamentals. Even as some analysts see reason for concern, most are still upbeat on the AI opportunity, underscored by strong hyperscaler commitments to the AI buildout. 

Company View

Firms are maintaining aggressive AI capex plans: “As cloud crosses the 50% mark as a percentage of our total revenue, the revenue growth rate is further accelerating as evidenced by the forecasted 16% growth rate for fiscal year '26. To put this growth rate in perspective, the last time Oracle grew this fast organically was over 15 years ago. …We only pursue opportunities…that reward us for our [IP] and the activity we bring to customers.”

- Oracle Outlook Call, Oct. 16, 2025

Expert View

Experts see diversification in OpenAI’s revenue streams: [OpenAI is] starting to get into, for example, Databricks and AWS and Slack and Salesforce…and get user bases over there. …They’re going to double down on enterprises as a whole…and start forming these big enterprise partnerships to start bringing in more users, potentially, a lot more revenue, and then also start catering to the more agentic side of their solutions to offer to these enterprise users.”

- Solutions Engineer at Stability AI, November 2025, Tegus Expert Insights Call

Source: AlphaSense (November 2025)

Healthcare Spotlight

Sara Mallatt , Director of Research, Healthcare

Is Pfizer’s $10 billion Metsera acquisition a good bet?

Pfizer is acquiring Metsera for $10 billion, winning a bidding war against Novo Nordisk after significantly raising its initial $7.3 billion offer. The move secures Metsera's late-stage obesity drug MET-097i, which offers potential once-monthly dosing, and follows Pfizer's earlier decision to drop its own obesity drug program due to safety concerns.

Wall Street View

The deal is fairly valued and strategically necessary for Pfizer despite the price run-up. Analysts expect the deal to be well-received by investors as it expands Pfizer’s pipeline of late-stage obesity assets in a lucrative market.

Company View

The deal will create value for shareholders and patients: “Our belief in the promise of the Pfizer and Metsera combination is strong and unwavering. We are confident it will create substantial value for shareholders and advance innovation to bring important medicines to patients.”

- Pfizer Q3 2025 Earnings Call, Nov. 4, 2025

Expert View

Physicians are cautiously to strongly optimistic about MET-097i’s market potential: “[MET-097i] could be really a game-changer in the field. It's not just a little bit more tolerated. This seems to be enormously better tolerated.”

- Endocrinologist at UPMC, October 2025, Tegus Experts Insights Call 

“There's robust weight loss with reassuring numbers and a good side effect profile and some opportunity to better the drug by giving it monthly. …[But] the weight loss may end up being comparable to [Lilly’s] tirzepatide.”

- Endocrinologist at UCLA Medical Center, October 2025, Tegus Expert Insights Call 

Source: AlphaSense (November 2025)

Energy & Industrials Spotlight

Xavier S. , Director of Research, E&I

Can batteries from Eos Energy bridge the data center power gap?

By pairing batteries with generators, data centers can bypass grid connection delays and launch years ahead of schedule. Eos Energy targets this sector with its aqueous-zinc Znyth technology, an alternative to lithium-ion designed for four- to 12-hour durations (ideal for peak shaving and backup). Data centers comprise 22% of Eos’s $22.6 billion opportunity pipeline. Roughly 64% of this data center capacity requires long-duration storage, aligning with Eos’s tech capabilities.

Wall Street View

Brokers are mixed about whether Eos Energy can scale efficiently. While some analysts are confident in the scalability of the company’s differentiated technology and encouraged by key strategic partnerships, others are more cautious, citing near-term execution risk.

Company View

Eos’s zinc batteries are a cost-effective long-duration power solution for data centers: “Data centers are the fastest-growing part of the pipeline, now making up 22% of the volume. And perhaps even more encouraging, 64% of our pipeline volume is now at six hours or more in duration, validating what we’ve been saying: The world needs longer-duration solutions.”

- Eos Energy Q3 2025 Earnings Call, Nov. 6, 2025

Expert View

Eos Energy is still years away from achieving profitability: “I would say [long-term cycling] is a concern for iron-air. …Their cycle times are so slow that they really can't get…into the types of cycle regimes that you would want to know for end-of-life. Now, the challenge that all of these companies face, if you look at traditional lithium-ion companies as well that are not well-established, the challenge of profitability rests a lot on the cost of production.”

- Senior Manager at Cuberg, October 2025, Tegus Expert Insights Call

Source: AlphaSense (November 2025)