Bitcoin Slides Below 100K as Markets Wait on the Fed

Market Color

Bitcoin and crypto markets closed their third red week in a row as mixed macro signals continue to add uncertainty into markets. In a positive light, President Trump signed a short term funding bill, ending the record breaking 42-day government shutdown. October jobs and inflation data however are likely permanent casualties of the shutdown with White House officials saying they are likely to never be released, leaving the Fed without a key data point used to determine rate cut decisions.

As a result, bitcoin and ethereum have since plunged to levels not seen since spring earlier this year while Fed rate cuts odds fell below 50%. Bitcoin saw its third consecutive week of net outflows for ETF products and closed the week below $100k for the first time since April. Around the world, Crypto ETPs experienced over $2B in net outflows last week, the largest since February earlier this year amidst the shifting risk sentiment.

The Senate Agriculture Committee released their crypto market structure bill draft, addressing digital commodities and how the CFTC may oversee that sector of the crypto market. This draft marks a key step forward in the process, and is an indication that lawmakers and their staffers have still been working on this legislation despite the government shutdown. The committee’s bill will need to be combined with the Senate Banking Committee's counterpart before the Senate can advance the legislation.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled a plan for “token taxonomy” to redefine crypto regulation. Atkins said the plans will be rooted in the Howey Test, a court case frequently cited by the SEC to determine if an asset is a security or not. Atkins said the framework aims to provide a clearer path for assets to transition out of securities status once they achieve sufficient decentralization or utility. The initiative marks one of the most significant efforts yet by the SEC to modernize its approach to digital assets and bring regulatory clarity to the evolving token economy.

President Trump’s CFTC nominee Mike Selig is set to testify in his Senate confirmation hearings today. Selig is currently chief counsel for the SEC’s Crypto Task Force and was formally tapped for the role last month.

The IRS unveiled guidance permitting crypto ETPs to stake digital assets and distribute the rewards to investors without jeopardizing their tax status as trusts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move gives crypto exchange-traded products a clear path to share staking rewards with their retail investors, positioning the U.S. to maintain a leadership role in digital asset and blockchain innovation.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) plans to trial tokenized bills that will be settled with a wholesale CBDC, a central bank digital currency that facilitates interbank transactions as opposed to consumer level payments. The MAS sees wholesale CBDCs as an “anchor” for the system where wholesale CBDCs serve as a digital form of fiat currency to be used by financial institutions to settle large value transactions quickly. The Singapore central bank is also preparing legislation for a stablecoin regulatory regime.

The Czech Central Bank became the first central bank to buy bitcoin last week. They created a $1M test portfolio for digital assets, mostly made up of bitcoin, with stablecoins and tokenized deposits. The pilot aims to test processes associated with purchasing, holding, and managing blockchain based assets with plans to share its experiences over the next 2-3 years. JPMorgan Chase launched their JPM coin last week, a digital deposit token for institutional clients featuring near instantaneous transfers. Unlike stablecoins, deposit tokens are digital claims on existing bank funds and can be interest bearing.

This was another week that tested the market’s conviction, with red candles stacking up as liquidity uncertainty kept risk appetite on pause. ETF outflows, deeper drawdowns, and missing economic data have all funneled attention toward the Fed and markets at large, where the next move on rates and liquidity will set the tone into year-end. Whether this pullback marks the end of the bull trend or just another reset hinges on that clarity. For now, the path forward remains tied to macro, and markets are waiting for a green light from the Fed before momentum can return.

Tether’s gold holdings have surged dramatically since mid-2024, rising from around $4 billion to over $12 billion in value by Q3 2025, and from roughly 40 tons to over 100 tons of physical gold. This growth cements Tether’s position among the world’s largest private gold holders globally.

By The Numbers

649,870 - Strategy picked up the pace of its bitcoin accumulation again last week, adding 8,178 bitcoin worth $835.6M to its balance sheet. The latest purchase was funded with another preferred stock issuance, taking the company’s total holdings to 649,870 BTC worth approximately $48B. 

95% - Bitcoin miners reached a new network milestone on Monday after Antpool produced block 923,999, which included the 19,950,000th bitcoin. This means more than 95% of the total supply has now been issued and the race to mine the remaining 5% starts now, ending in ~2140. 

2.8M - Short term bitcoin holders now hold around 2.8M BTC at a loss. This is the largest position held at a loss since the FTX collapse in 2022. At that time, the price of bitcoin traded as low as $15,000, which marked the bottom of that bear market in November 2022.

BitGo News

• Wrapped Bitcoin, the market leader for tokenized Bitcoin, has officially launched on Hedera via LayerZero and Stargate Finance.
• BitGo will be attending Art Basel and sponsoring Nolcha’s annual show. Don’t miss it!
• BitGo CEO Mike Belshe attended Cantor’s Crypto & AI/Energy Infrastructure Conference in Miami.