Why there are no new widebody jets on the horizon – and why that’s a sustainability problem
Twenty years ago, widebodies were the stars of Paris: A380, 787, A350.
Today, the landscape looks very different:
🔹 Mid-size twins killed the giants. The A350 and 787 are so efficient that they effectively made very large widebodies (A380, 747) obsolete. Airlines learned they can get low unit costs without taking the risk of filling 500+ seats.
🔹 No real demand for “bigger.” Outside Emirates, there’s little appetite for an all‑new very large aircraft. Even derivatives like an A350neo or 787 re‑engine are stalled by a cautious engine industry: Rolls-Royce is capital‑constrained, Pratt is focused on single-aisles, and GE has little incentive to disrupt itself.
🔹 China might be next – but mostly for China. The C929 could be the next new widebody we see, yet sanctions, engine choices (Russian PD‑35 or a nascent CJ‑2000), and certification hurdles likely confine it largely to Chinese carriers.
🔹 Boeing’s 777X is oddly well‑placed. Despite delays, a 500+ backlog and structural demand for larger twins suggest the 777X will hit a “sweet spot” as aging 777‑300ERs and A330s need replacement. A stretched 777‑10 remains a longer‑term possibility.
✈️ The quiet crisis: sustainability. Long‑haul flying generates the bulk of aviation’s emissions. Airlines assume ~20% of decarbonisation must come from new technology – not just #SAF and incremental tweaks. Yet all the real R&D focus is on the next single‑aisle, while no new clean‑sheet widebody is even under serious study in the West.
We’re heading toward a paradox:
🔹 A global long‑haul fleet that keeps flying 2010‑era designs well into the 2040s
🔹 While aviation’s net‑zero targets assume breakthroughs in exactly that segment.
🔹 If aviation is serious about climate goals, the industry can’t postpone the next‑generation widebody conversation forever.
#Aviation #Boeing #COMAC #Widebodies
Journalist, editor, podcast host and moderator at Specialist Insight - Revolution.Aero and Corporate Jet Investor
3wThanks for sharing! It was a pleasure to speak with Mark and learn more about Skyryse.