FOMC, Superforecasters, and Philly Fed Survey forecasts for 2025 and 2027

The Fed’s 2025 Dilemma: Inflation Near 3% vs Rates Near 4% The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy rate to the 3.75–4.00% range, yet inflation remains close to 3%, well above the 2% target. This puts the Fed in a challenging position heading into 2025. 📌 Key Insights Slow disinflation limits how far the Fed can cut Yield curve is gradually steepening as long-term yields rise Performance gaps widen between growth vs value, short vs long duration Policy views inside the Fed remain split, adding to market uncertainty 📊 In this environment, investors should prepare for three paths: gradual cuts, sticky inflation, or a sharper economic slowdown—and build a flexible portfolio accordingly. https://lnkd.in/gtyUbKKa #FederalReserve #USInflation #InterestRateOutlook #GlobalMarkets #2025Forecast #InvestmentStrategy

All Eyes on the Fed: Another Rate Cut Ahead? 📉 The Fed is widely expected to trim rates by 25bps at its October 2025 meeting, bringing the target range down to 3.75% to 4.00%, the lowest level since 2022. Markets will be watching closely for any hints on December’s move, though policymakers are unlikely to reveal much new guidance. The backdrop is more uncertain than usual as the ongoing government shutdown has delayed key data releases. Among the limited figures available, headline inflation ticked up to 3%, while core inflation eased slightly to the same level. ADP data showed the private sector added around 14,250 jobs per week, and a Chicago Fed estimate suggested unemployment in September stayed steady near 4.34%. Traders are also eyeing whether the FOMC might pause the runoff of Treasuries from its 6.6 trillion dollar balance sheet, a move that could further ease financial conditions. How do you expect the market to react to the cut and forward guidance? #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Economy #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Finance #Investing

The Fed’s Cautious Pivot: Rate Cuts Amid Uncertainty 🇺🇸📉 The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing them to a 3.75-4.00% range (its lowest in three years). The move signals growing concern over a slowing labour market, even as inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. What’s unusual is that the Fed made this decision despite a government shutdown nearing one month, leaving policymakers flying blind without fresh labour data. Private reports, however, already hint at sluggish job growth and rising unemployment pressures. While the cut aims to ease borrowing costs and support growth, the path ahead is uncertain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that December’s rate decision is far from settled, as officials remain divided between tackling inflation and preventing a deeper slowdown. With consumer confidence dipping, layoffs mounting, and data gaps widening, the Fed is navigating in fog. Question is how long before growth fears outweigh inflation worries entirely? #federalreserve #interestrates #inflation #usaeconomy #monetarypolicy #marketupdate #globalmarkets #economicoutlook

Rate Cut ≠ Policy Pivot The Fed just trimmed rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00 %, but Powell’s tone was clear — this isn’t a cutting cycle yet. “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation.” – Jerome Powell “Our policy is not on a preset course. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” -Inflation remains somewhat elevated. -Labour-market risks are rising. -Policy stance: still modestly restrictive, not neutral. -Next move: data-dependent — not on a calendar. Market takeaway: expect the Fed to move only if job softness deepens and inflation momentum cools.

Back-to-back rate cuts from the Fed shows they remain more worried about job market weakness spreading than stubborn inflation. Rates are now at three-year lows -- despite the information blackout limiting the Fed's visibility into the economy. But Fed Chair Powell signaled to Wall Street that a December cut is hardly a done deal. More on CNN with Boris Sanchez and Brianna Keilar Read the full story on takeaways from Bryan Mena https://lnkd.in/epbtJEHJ

PULSE CHECK: The 2025 Fed Dilemma • 🚦 October 2008: Emergency rate cuts as Wall Street burned—S&P 500 in freefall, CPI still elevated, jobs vanishing by the hundreds of thousands each month. Powell’s predecessor stared down systemic collapse with zero-bound rates. • 📈 October 2025: “Inverse crisis”—unemployment near historic lows, S&P 500 at 35th record high of the year, earnings smashing records, inflation still hot at 3%+. Yet, the Fed is slashing rates—not out of panic, but out of caution. • 🔎 Historical whiplash: • In 1995, the Fed cut only after inflation cooled below today’s levels. • In 1998, rates were cut at 2-2.5% inflation to avert LTCM meltdown—still below today’s core CPI. • You’d have to rewind to pre-2% target days to find comparable easing with inflation stuck above 3%. • 🛑 Powell’s “risk management cut” is a high-wire act: the Fed is signaling that 3% inflation may be the new normal—at least for now. Are they re-writing the playbook, or just cornered by market and political pressures? • 📊 Market Runaway? • S&P 500’s price-to-peak-earnings ratio hitting 27.9—60% above the long-term median. • Multiple expansion is doing the heavy lifting, not earnings. • Is the Fed fueling a new bubble, echoing the late-90s boom… and bust? • ⚠️ Lessons from history: • In 1998, quick cuts juiced stocks and bonds—but also sowed the seeds for the next volatility storm. • Can you cut rates with hot inflation and expect a different outcome? #RateCuts #Inflation #FederalReserve #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancialStability #Powell #RiskManagement #HistoryRepeats #BubbleRisk

While inflation by any measure remains nominally elevated, well above the Fed’s 2% target, the lack of consistent upward movement in the latest reports – at least from the Federal Reserve’s perspective – has been a positive step. This has allowed at least some Fed members to shift their focus to potential weakness in the labor market. However, concerns of additional price pressures remain, particularly towards year-end amid the prospect of a stronger growth profile or more spendy consumer during the key holiday spending season, or into next year should businesses begin to pass on additional costs to the end consumer. Any or all of these additional factors could exacerbate inflation, which will warrant a relatively higher rate environment, or at least limit the broader downside potential for additional rate cuts. This week, the Stifel Financial Corp.’s economics team takes a closer look at traditional and alternative inflation measures, a particularly timely report given the absence of some updated data amid the ongoing government shutdown.

Odd Move: Fed Takes the Scissors to Rates — But Inflation’s Still Burning The Fed just cut rates by 25 basis points, dropping its target from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%. You’d expect this sort of move if inflation was cooling off, but that’s not the picture right now. Here’s the economic backdrop: • GDP’s humming along: Q2 growth hit 3.8% annualized. • Inflation? Not going away. It climbed to about 2.9% in August, and the September forecast is even hotter at 3.1%. • Labor market is showing cracks, consumer confidence is at a six-month low, and worries about finding a job are rising. • Tariffs are still biting, too: They’ve explained close to 11% of headline inflation over the past year. So why cut rates? The Fed seems stuck between two powerful forces: persistent inflation on one side, and a slowing jobs picture on the other. Today’s cut says they’re tilting toward supporting growth and employment, even as price pressures stay high. What does this mean if you’re in finance, banking, or corporate planning? The Fed is signaling it’s less laser-focused on stamping out inflation, and more concerned about keeping the economy steady. Borrowers could see some relief, but savers and inflation hawks may have a headache coming if prices stick around these levels. My take: In a job market that’s starting to cool, maybe a rate cut is defensible. But with inflation still heating up, this is a risky bet. Is it a pivot, or just a breather? Time will tell. #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #Finance #MonetaryPolicy #NedGandevani

Odd Move: Fed Takes the Scissors to Rates — But Inflation’s Still Burning The Fed just cut rates by 25 basis points, dropping its target from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%. You’d expect this sort of move if inflation was cooling off, but that’s not the picture right now.

The Fed just cut rates again - another 0.25% - bringing the target range down to 3.75-4.00%. A couple things made this meeting unusual: ·        Two Fed officials dissented - one wanted a bigger 50-bps cut, another didn’t want to cut at all. ·        And because of the ongoing government shutdown, the Fed didn’t have fresh data on unemployment or inflation (Core PCE). Chair Powell suggested the economy still looks a lot like it did at the last meeting - maybe a slightly weaker labor market, and inflation that’s still too high for comfort. No new economic projections this time, but Powell hinted they might pause rate cuts in December until the data picture clears up. One more interesting move: the Fed announced it will pause Quantitative Tightening in December, shifting its portfolio toward shorter-term Treasuries (T-bills) and away from longer-dated bonds and MBS as it approaches its goal of “ample reserves.” If you’re thinking about how this could impact your deposit or liquidity strategy, shoot me a DM - always happy to chat. #CoryFrank #RoboraFinancial