From the course: Project Management Foundations: Risk

Managing unknown unknowns

From the course: Project Management Foundations: Risk

Managing unknown unknowns

“

- One of the most difficult things project managers must deal with are unknown unknowns. An unknown unknown is something you don't expect, and information about how it might impact you is also unknown. While difficult, these elusive risks can be managed. While that sounds crazy, bear with me for a minute. I'm going to share some actions to deal with those annoying unknown unknowns. But first, some examples might be helpful. One risk is that team members might get sick and miss deadlines. While we don't know when or if that might happen, we know this is possible. This is a known unknown. We know the sickness may occur, but when and how long is unknown. Also, a massive sinkhole appearing out of nowhere could derail your construction project or something like a pandemic could suddenly grip the world, and we don't know the impact on lives and livelihoods. These are examples of unknown unknowns. Given those examples, let's look at actions you can take to deal with unknown unknowns. First, focus on impacts. While an unknown unknown means the event won't be anticipated, the impacts on the project are not a mystery. Cost, schedule delays, or scope impacts are all fundamental results of any risk. Work with the project sponsor to consider contingencies for potential unknown unknowns when you're planning your project. Second, you can react when moving forward is feasible. Some unknown unknowns won't be catastrophic. When these surface, be flexible. Notify your key sponsor and stakeholders, adjust your plans, and move forward in the best way possible. Don't reflect on missing a risk that surfaces. By definition, they were unknown, so nobody is to blame. The third thing you can do with unknown unknowns is don't assume it's always an unknown. Project managers sometimes believe unknowns that can't be resolved have to do with things like the actions of competitors. Conduct research using annual reports, trade publications, and industry trends. This can provide some information on competitors and market direction. While that might not make a risk fully known, it can provide insights to help with risk planning. Finally, seek out hidden knowledge in past project records and launch an AI prompt. Past project files are typically an underused resource. While it can be cumbersome, perusing project files can surface information about how your stakeholders have reacted during project execution and solution delivery. Using AI in this context is like referring to a massive set of project records. I've included a sample prompt in the exercise files. This can take what would be an unexpected response to your project and make it something you can anticipate and plan for. So there you have it, things you could do to make those nasty unknowns a little more known and maybe, just maybe, make yourself look like a project manager with keen intuition.

Contents