Mitigating AI’s possible negative impact on jobs

- According to a global survey by McKinsey, 55% of all companies have already adopted AI in one or more functions. I predict this number to be above 80% by 2025. It's hard to imagine any job staying untouched by the direct or indirect effects of AI. This prediction applies even to jobs such as farmers and security guards. The farmer will spend much more time operating drones and AI-powered farming machinery than physical work in the field. And computer vision and biometric entry will eliminate the need for many security guards. AI will affect jobs in three ways. One, it will augment and alter, but not eliminate, some jobs. Two, it will substitute for other jobs, eliminating the need for them. Three, it will create entirely new jobs, sometimes entirely new industries, that did not exist before. This impact will be dynamic. Some jobs being augmented today may get substituted tomorrow. And we cannot fully imagine what new jobs may get created five years from now. School teachers are a good example of AI's augmentation effect. Given the cognitive and behavior complexities of this job, it's hard to imagine AI reducing the need for teachers. However, AI is already helping many teachers become more effective. Take high school. Rather than mark up and suggest edits to every student's writing assignment, an English teacher can ask them to use AI-powered software, such as Grammarly Premium. The software can do the markup and suggest edits. The teacher can then meet with each student to review his or her common mistakes and what the grammar should be. This way, students can learn at a faster pace and the teacher can spend more time with each student. Similar software is already available for other courses, such as math and physics, or to learn entirely new languages. Other jobs that AI is augmenting, but would not replace anytime soon, include nurses, doctors, hairstylists, software engineers, creative professionals to name just a few. These jobs are cognitively, behaviorally, and/or physically too complex for today's AI. Now, consider jobs at risk of elimination by AI. Obvious examples include cashiers at checkout counters, factory workers, and truck drivers. In developed economies, self-checkout in grocery stores is already commonplace. In factories, robots are taking over from workers. And autonomous cars will do away with the need for drivers sometime this decade. According to the World Economic Forum, 15% of all jobs in retailing, manufacturing, and transportation globally are at risk of elimination. Business leaders should treat job elimination by AI not merely as an opportunity to reduce costs, but also as an opportunity to redeploy the freed-up workforce towards expanding customer value. For example, in retail stores, former cashiers could be redeployed to other in-store opportunities, such as helping customers find products and even cross-selling or upselling. Finally, let's look at how the rise of AI is likely to create entirely new jobs. While reducing the need for routinized jobs, AI will increase the need for jobs that require analyzing, planning, and deciding. We will need fewer data entry clerks but more data analysts, fewer accountants but more financial advisors, and fewer construction workers but more machinery operators. The World Economic Forum projects that many of the new jobs will emerge in what the forum calls the care economy, the creator economy, and the green economy. Given the turbulence as well as the opportunities ahead, it is imperative for governments and companies to increase investment in developing the skills and knowledge that the new jobs of tomorrow will require.