Oxford Economics

Is affordability back at the top of Washington’s agenda? 🏛️ • Another government shutdown could happen in early 2026, but its economic impact may be limited. • Delayed economic data, including the September jobs report, is being released, unlikely to sway the Fed in December. • Healthcare subsidies and even a 50-year mortgage are now part of the affordability conversation. • Tariff relief on select food imports may slightly ease grocery bills, with more pre-election adjustments possible. Check out the full briefing for a deeper dive: https://oxecon.io/RsnF3E

COP30’s big unanswered question: Will AEs drive the low-carbon transition? As COP30 enters its final day, one critical issue remains open: how advanced economies can provide effective support for low-carbon development in emerging and developing economies. To explore what AE leadership could achieve, we use Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model to simulate a scenario in which most AEs lead the low-carbon transition. The results are clear: 🟢 AE-driven momentum accelerates global decarbonisation and limits warming to 2.1°C, avoiding 0.9°C of additional warming by end-of-century relative to baseline. 🟢 World GDP rises by 0.2% in 2050 thanks to avoided climate-related damages. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated global action and the outsized influence of advanced economies in shaping the global climate trajectory. Download our report to learn more: https://oxecon.io/GozevX #NetZero #ClimateAction #COP30 #ClimatePolicy

📈China’s chip boom is no longer just coastal, its going nationwide. China’s latest five-year plan doubles down on a long-running ambition: build true technological self-sufficiency in chips as a pathway to “high-quality development.” The goal isn’t new, it echoes earlier five-year plans and the Made in China 2025 initiative, but what’s changing is where the action is happening. Back in 2005, China produced just over 26 billion integrated circuits. Today, annual output has risen more than twentyfold, to over 450 billion. For years, chipmaking was dominated by coastal powerhouses like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. But over the past decade, the map has shifted. In the last 10 years almost all provinces throughout the country have been developing capacities of their own. All but five of China’s 31 provinces recorded output of chips last year with the central provinces of Gansu and Sichuan most notably increasing their share of national output in recent years. Whether China can build a fully self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain, especially for cutting-edge chips, remains an open question given the technological and geopolitical hurdles in this segment of manufacturing. But what is clear is that semiconductors have become embedded in provincial growth strategies across the country, as local governments look for new productivity engines in the face of deteriorating demographics and shrinking workforces. Learn more about our China Cities and Regional Forecasts service: https://oxecon.io/wUFRgf

Israel’s economy surprised to the upside in Q3, offering a clearer signal that momentum may be returning as monetary conditions soften. At the same time, labour-market data from Egypt and Israel hint at a modest cooling. With Adam Holdstock More Middle East insights: https://oxecon.io/WZ91Bq #MiddleEastEconomy #Israel #Egypt

💻 Falling ROI ≠ Falling Strength in US Tech. US tech and data-services firms are spending heavily on AI, data centres, power connectivity, and cloud systems. At the same time, service industries are steeping in to deploy this new capacity, amplifying the build-out's impact across the economy. However, tech firms are reporting returns on investment are falling. That might sound alarming but beneath the surface is evidence of a maturing investment cycle. In our latest blog, we explain why ROI is misleading in this cycle: inflation and depreciation drag down the metric, even while cash-flows remain healthy and productive capacity expands. In short: firms are building new capacity now so they can deliver more value later. 👉 Read more: https://oxecon.io/FRY6s9

Don't miss out on our Megatrends webinar where our experts will be exploring the Decline of the Dollar and the Rise of the Renminbi We explore how shifts could reshape global trade and finance through 2060, and what they mean for businesses and policymakers in a world where economic power is more broadly distributed. Register now: https://oxecon.io/4BLYFR

2025 in Review: What we got right and what we didn’t 2025 has tested forecasters and markets alike. Our forecasts proved largely accurate, but not without surprises. In his latest blog, our Chief Global Economist, Innes McFee, shares an honest review of what we got right, what we missed and what it all means for the year ahead. Read the blog now: https://oxecon.io/ETAge8

The future of European real estate for forecasting is here! We are delighted to announce detailed forecasting coverage for 66 European locations, giving investors a deeper view of market fundamentals, risks and opportunities. By combining new proprietary supply data with model-backed insights on demand drivers, Oxford Economics is now the world’s most comprehensive real estate forecaster. Key features of our expanded service: • Monthly forecasts for over 140 global markets, 100 cities (including 41 in Europe), 10 submarkets (6 in Europe) and 30 countries (including 19 in Europe) • Forecasting Office, Industrial, Retail, Residential & Hotels performance to 2060 • Building stock powered by geospatial analytics • Monthly forecasts of MSCI data, including access to MSCI history • Economic scenarios, applied to RE sectors and markets • A single tool to compare global markets apples to apples. Request a demo of our service today: https://oxecon.io/KaYLuf #realestate #europe #macroeconomics

How are shifting trade tensions reshaping the outlook for US agriculture?🌾 • Farm bankruptcies are climbing as long-running structural pressures intensify • Limited progress in the US China trade relationship is weighing on soybean exporters • Investment in farm equipment is slowing, with tariff driven costs creating added risk • Labor shortages are mounting as immigration enforcement tightens Check out the full briefing for the deeper insights: https://oxecon.io/Z4kuH8

What are the risks and opportunities in this current geopolitical landscape? 🗓️ At the Oxford Economics Global Economic Outlook Conference 2026, our panel session “Assessing the risks and opportunities from a fractious geopolitical landscape” will explore how this changing environment is influencing corporate strategy, regional competitiveness, and policy priorities. Our panellists discuss how to navigate risk and identify opportunities amid global fragmentation: Innes McFee, Chief Global Economist, Oxford Economics Dan Alamariu, Chief Global Strategist, Alpine Macro Claudine Fry, Geopolitical and Strategic Risk Advisor, Control Risks Ben May, Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis, Oxford Economics 🕛Don't miss out - register now! https://oxecon.io/v3oTjs #Geopolitics #alpinemacro #oxfordeconomics #Economy #RiskManagement