Real Zero: An Opportunity, not a Cost

Renewable-powered steelmaking is now commercially competitive, proving that even primary steel can reach Real Zero with global supply-chain collaboration.

In Japan’s steel sector, one of the hardest-to-abate industries, Climate Analytics modelling identifies clear, near-term pathways to cost-competitive Real-Zero production.

For secondary steel, using scrap processed in electric-arc furnaces (EAFs) powered entirely by renewable electricity, the Real Zero route is already competitive with conventional EAF operations that rely on carbon-intensive grid power.

For primary steelmaking, importing green iron (iron reduced using renewable hydrogen in regions with abundant low-cost renewables) enables Japanese producers to achieve cost parity with coal-based production by the early 2030s. Even modest carbon pricing, around US $15 per tonne, would bring parity forward to 2030.

By contrast, pathways relying on carbon capture and storage (CCS) remain more expensive, technically uncertain, and risk locking in fossil-fuel dependence for decades.

Transitioning to Real-Zero steelmaking offers broader advantages: reduced exposure to volatile coking-coal prices, improved energy security, and enhanced competitiveness in markets where buyers increasingly demand verified low-carbon materials.

The research concludes that Real-Zero steelmaking is both technically feasible and economically advantageous - a model for how industrial transformation can combine climate integrity with commercial success.

Green ammonia is approaching cost parity with grey ammonia, promising lower costs and greater energy security for India’s fertiliser industry.

India’s fertiliser industry is both energy-intensive and strategically vital. Climate Analytics’ research shows that green ammonia, produced using renewable electricity and electrolysers, is already within approximately 10% of grey ammonia’s production cost in optimal conditions.

By 2026, this gap narrows further to around US $25 per tonne, and by 2034, green ammonia becomes cheaper in most Indian states. In regions with abundant renewables, such as Gujarat and Rajasthan, parity is achieved by 2030. These findings exclude any carbon-pricing mechanism — meaning that even modest policy incentives or lower borrowing costs could accelerate cost parity by several years.

The analysis finds that blue ammonia (derived from natural gas with carbon capture) remains uncompetitive due to higher capital costs, uncertain capture rates, and continued reliance on volatile gas imports.

Crucially, domestic green-ammonia production offers wider benefits: it reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels, stabilises fertiliser subsidies, and enhances India’s long-term energy and food security. 

By demonstrating that Real-Zero fertiliser production is economically viable within the decade, the research points to a practical pathway for large-scale decarbonisation in one of the world’s most essential industries.

Battery-electric trucks reach cost parity with diesel by 2026, delivering clear and growing cost advantages across European heavy transport.

In the European heavy-duty transport sector, Climate Analytics modelling shows that battery-electric long-haul trucks will reach full cost parity with diesel vehicles as early as 2026. When factoring in total cost of ownership (TCO) - including energy, maintenance, and infrastructure - the economics increasingly favour rapid electrification.

By 2030, BETs are 15–22% cheaper than diesel, and up to 24% cheaper by 2040 on a total cost of ownership (TCO) basis, depending on truck type. For a representative fleet of 10 000 trucks, this translates to potential annual savings of up to €100 million compared with slower-moving competitors.

Even without considering carbon pricing, the business case is clear. When carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading System are included, the economics strengthen further.

Beyond direct savings, electrification cuts exposure to oil price volatility, reduces fleet emissions to near zero, and increases operational resilience. The analysis concludes that the rapid phase-out of diesel trucks delivers the strongest economic and risk-adjusted returns among all scenarios tested.